McGuirk Arena · at C Michigan · Conference game
Closing line
OHIO -6.5✓ OHIO covered by 9.5
OHIO -6.5✓ OHIO covered by 9.5Closing total151.5Under by 7.5
| OHIO | This season | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-7 | Record | 2-9 |
| 5-6 | ATS | 5-6 |
| 6-5 | O/U | 5-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: OHIO 80–74 CMU · ✓ OHIO (70%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 31 | 49 | 80 |
| CMU | 29 | 35 | 64 |
1st half: OHIO 31, CMU 29 (OHIO by 2). The model had OHIO by 3.7 and a total of 72.3 (actual 60).
Team stats
| OHIO | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-60 45% | Field goals | 24-58 41% |
| 4-20 20% | 3-pointers | 0-13 0% |
| 22-34 65% | Free throws | 16-23 70% |
| 40 10 off | Rebounds | 38 8 off |
| 18 | Assists | 9 |
| 8 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 8 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 19 | Fouls | 24 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| OHIO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Paveletzke G | 37 | 23 | 7 | 9 | 6-11 | 2-5 |
| JJ Kelly G | 34 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 7-10 | 0-1 |
| Aidan Hadaway F | 33 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 6-14 | 0-5 |
| Ajay Sheldon G | 28 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Javan Simmons F | 24 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Elijah Elliott G | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Jalen Breath F | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Kiir Kuany F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Dior Conners G | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jordan Fisher, Carter Reese, Zay Mosley, Ayden Evans, Jesse Burris, Chase Boals
| CMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamario Adley G | 33 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 7-14 | 0-2 |
| Nathan Claerbaut C | 29 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Phat Phat Brooks G | 29 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 6-16 | 0-1 |
| Jaxson Whitaker G | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Nick Mullen F | 25 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Keenan Garner F | 26 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Will Ashford G | 22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Logan McIntire G | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jorden Brooks, Kayden Nation, Kareem Aburashed, Jalen Kampen, Nsikan Usen, Uchenna Amene, Rodney Johnson Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketOHIO -6.5
ModelOHIO -5.9
Model edgeCMU +0.6
L OHIO covered
Total
Market151.5
Model154.4
Model edgeOver 2.9
L Under
Projected score
OHIO 80.1 · CMU 74.3
OHIO 80 · CMU 64
Win probability
OHIO 70%
1st half
Spread
OHIO -3.7
OHIO -2.0
Total
72.3
60 points
Projected score
OHIO 38 · CMU 34.3
OHIO 31 · CMU 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOHIO -5.5
1 → OHIO
CloseOHIO -6.5
1 pt toward OHIO
Total
Open150.5
▲ 1
Close151.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
OHIO -305 · CMU +245
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OHIO -5.5 · closed OHIO -6.5 · moved 1 toward OHIOmodel OHIO -6
model OHIO -6
Opened 150.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 1 upmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| CMU | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
OHIO 7–0 CMUOHIO leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · OHIO has won the last 7 meetings · OHIO 4-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024-25 | CMU 82 @ OHIO 84 | OHIO -5.5 | CMU W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | OHIO 57 @ CMU 55 | CMU +4.5 | CMU W |
| Jan 16, 2023-24 | CMU 61 @ OHIO 73 | OHIO -10.5 | OHIO W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | OHIO 76 @ CMU 59 | CMU +9.5 | OHIO W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | CMU 68 @ OHIO 96 | OHIO -12.5 | OHIO W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ohio
11 games played
Straight up
4-7
36% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARST | L 85-89 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 6 | vs ILST | W 72-68 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMC | L 60-90 | +17.5 | L −12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 15 | @ LOU | L 81-106 | +31.5 | W +6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 19 | vs BCU | L 73-76 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs GMU | L 69-92 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 142.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 25 | vs LMU | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | vs ME | W 79-57 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs MRSH | W 88-81 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 13 | vs SBU | W 88-83 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs BGSU | L 58-68 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
−7.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
+2.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
−12.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+6.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−9.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
−15.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−8.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
+9.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+3.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+11.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−8.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
+14.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
−21.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
+5.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+12.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−8.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
+18.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−16.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
−2.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+11.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+20.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−27.5
over 6under 5avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
C Michigan
11 games played
Straight up
2-9
18% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-6
45% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs APP | W 82-66 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 8 | @ BRAD | L 54-85 | +9.5 | L −21.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 13 | vs USA | L 64-66 | +5.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 14 | vs COPP | W 82-59 | -10.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 20 | vs NKU | L 66-90 | -4.5 | L −28.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 22 | @ MARQ | L 71-85 | +25.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 2 | @ LUC | L 72-83 | +6.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 7 | @ SLU | L 65-107 | +24.5 | L −17.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | @ STBK | L 55-78 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 20 | @ NIU | L 73-74 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 22 | @ WIS | L 61-88 | +26.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAPP
APPW 82-66
+14.5
8
@BRAD
BRADL 54-85
−21.5
13
vsUSA
USAL 64-66
+3.5
14
vsCOPP
COPPW 82-59
+12.5
20
vsNKU
NKUL 66-90
−28.5
22
@MARQ
MARQL 71-85
+11.5
2
@LUC
LUCL 72-83
−4.5
7
@SLU
SLUL 65-107
−17.5
13
@STBK
STBKL 55-78
−15.5
20
@NIU
NIUL 73-74
+1.5
22
@WIS
WISL 61-88
−0.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAPP
APPW 82-66
+5.5
8
@BRAD
BRADL 54-85
−8.5
13
vsUSA
USAL 64-66
−12.5
14
vsCOPP
COPPW 82-59
−1.5
20
vsNKU
NKUL 66-90
+9.5
22
@MARQ
MARQL 71-85
+3.5
2
@LUC
LUCL 72-83
+14.5
7
@SLU
SLUL 65-107
+11.5
13
@STBK
STBKL 55-78
−12.5
20
@NIU
NIUL 73-74
−2.5
22
@WIS
WISL 61-88
−3.5
over 5under 6avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ohio
4-7 overall · 0-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Bowling Green58–68
- Wvs St Bonaventure88–83
- Wvs Marshall88–81
- Wvs Maine79–57
- Lvs LMU58–70
A week or more of rest.
C Michigan
2-9 overall · 0-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Wisconsin61–88
- L@ N Illinois73–74
- L@ Stony Brook55–78
- L@ Saint Louis65–107
- L@ Loyola Chicago72–83
A week or more of rest.