Pauley Pavilion · at UCLA
Closing line
UCLA -24.5✓ CP covered by 3.5
UCLA -24.5✓ CP covered by 3.5Closing total161.5Over by 33.5
 CP | This season | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | Record | 8-3 |
| 4-6 | ATS | 5-6 |
| 7-3 | O/U | 6-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CP 67–91 UCLA · ✓ UCLA (98%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 45 | 42 | 87 |
| UCLA | 43 | 65 | 108 |
1st half: CP 45, UCLA 43 (CP by 2). The model had UCLA by 14.6 and a total of 74.2 (actual 88).
Team stats
| CP | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-51 51% | Field goals | 35-61 57% |
| 14-32 44% | 3-pointers | 12-28 43% |
| 21-22 95% | Free throws | 26-29 90% |
| 28 7 off | Rebounds | 21 4 off |
| 16 | Assists | 20 |
| 5 | Steals | 10 |
| 1 | Blocks | 0 |
| 24 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 26 | Fouls | 16 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cayden Ward G | 33 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-6 |
| Peter Bandelj G | 32 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 5-6 | 4-5 |
| Hamad Mousa G | 31 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 4-11 | 2-7 |
| Ali Assran F | 19 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1-8 | 0-4 |
| Austin Goode F | 17 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kieran Elliott G | 21 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5-5 | 2-2 |
| Luka Tarlac G | 18 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Guzman Vasilic G | 14 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Troy Plumtree F | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Aaron Price Jr. PF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jason Scott G | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
Did not play: Jake Davis, Braden Freeman, Jess Esso Essis, Eric Brown, Jackson Mosley
| UCLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Dailey Jr. F | 33 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3-6 | 0-3 |
| Donovan Dent G | 33 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 5-10 | 0-1 |
| Tyler Bilodeau F | 31 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 7-9 | 2-2 |
| Skyy Clark G | 31 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 10-19 | 6-12 |
| Xavier Booker C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamar Brown G | 27 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 6-7 | 2-3 |
| Trent Perry G | 19 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Brandon Williams F | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Eric Freeny G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Steven Jamerson II F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Christian Horry G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jack Seidler G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Markell Alston, Anthony Peoples Jr., Evan Manjikian
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCLA -24.5
ModelUCLA -24.4
Model edgeCP +0.1
W CP covered
Total
Market161.5
Model158.4
Model edgeUnder 3.1
L Over
Projected score
CP 67 · UCLA 91.4
CP 87 · UCLA 108
Win probability
UCLA 98%
1st half
Spread
UCLA -14.6
CP -2.0
Total
74.2
88 points
Projected score
CP 29.8 · UCLA 44.4
CP 45 · UCLA 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCLA -26.5
2 → CP
CloseUCLA -24.5
2 pts toward CP
Total
Open162.5
▼ 1
Close161.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
CP +3000 · UCLA -10000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCLA -26.5 · closed UCLA -24.5 · moved 2 toward CPmodel UCLA -24.5 matches the line
model UCLA -24.5 = line ✓
Opened 162.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 1 downmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| UCLA | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cal Poly
10 games played
Straight up
3-7
30% wins
Against the spread
4-6
40% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-3
70% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ USC | L 64-94 | +24.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 8 | @ SEA | W 73-71 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 12 | @ CSU | L 79-93 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 165.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 14 | @ MONT | L 82-90 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 20 | @ UTAH | W 92-85 | +14.5 | W +21.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | @ NAU | L 87-93 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs SEMO | L 68-84 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 170.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 4 | @ CSUF | W 94-91 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 177.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 6 | vs UCR | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | vs MTST | L 80-83 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+4.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
−0.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+21.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
−7.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−14.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+4.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
−9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
−0.5
covered 4didn’t cover 6avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+6.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
+3.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+9.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
+15.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−18.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+7.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
+9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
+3.5
over 7under 3avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
UCLA
11 games played
Straight up
8-3
73% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs EWU | W 80-74 | -29.5 | L −23.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 7 | vs PEPP | W 74-63 | -29.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 10 | vs WGA | W 83-62 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 14 | vs ARIZ | L 65-69 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 18 | vs SAC | W 79-48 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | vs PRES | W 86-46 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 131.5 | O 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAL | L 72-80 | -7.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @ WASH | W 82-80 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs ORE | W 74-63 | -8.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 13 | vs GONZ | L 72-82 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 17 | vs ASU | W 90-77 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsEWU
EWUW 80-74
−23.5
7
vsPEPP
PEPPW 74-63
−18.5
10
vsWGA
WGAW 83-62
−9.5
14
vsARIZ
ARIZL 65-69
−2.5
18
vsSAC
SACW 79-48
+3.5
21
vsPRES
PRESW 86-46
+14.5
25
vsCAL
CALL 72-80
−15.5
3
@WASH
WASHW 82-80
−0.5
6
vsORE
OREW 74-63
+2.5
13
vsGONZ
GONZL 72-82
+0.5
17
vsASU
ASUW 90-77
+3.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsEWU
EWUW 80-74
+4.5
7
vsPEPP
PEPPW 74-63
−15.5
10
vsWGA
WGAW 83-62
−1.5
14
vsARIZ
ARIZL 65-69
−19.5
18
vsSAC
SACW 79-48
−19.5
21
vsPRES
PRESW 86-46
+0.5
25
vsCAL
CALL 72-80
+8.5
3
@WASH
WASHW 82-80
+20.5
6
vsORE
OREW 74-63
−9.5
13
vsGONZ
GONZL 72-82
+6.5
17
vsASU
ASUW 90-77
+24.5
over 6under 5avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cal Poly
3-7 overall · 1-1 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Montana St80–83
- Lvs UC Riverside84–88
- W@ Fullerton94–91
- Lvs SE Missouri68–84
- L@ N Arizona87–93
3 days since their last game.
UCLA
8-3 overall · 2-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Arizona St90–77
- Lvs Gonzaga72–82
- Wvs Oregon74–63
- W@ Washington82–80
- Lvs California72–80
2 days since their last game.