Watsco Center · at Miami
Closing line
MIA -22.5✓ FIU covered by 5.5
MIA -22.5✓ FIU covered by 5.5Closing total161.5Over by 17.5
 FIU | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 9-2 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 7-4 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 6-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FIU 69–88 MIA · ✓ MIA (95%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 43 | 38 | 81 |
| MIA | 43 | 55 | 98 |
1st half: FIU 43, MIA 43 (tied). The model had MIA by 11.2 and a total of 73.3 (actual 86).
Team stats
| FIU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-63 48% | Field goals | 35-65 54% |
| 7-22 32% | 3-pointers | 6-23 26% |
| 14-21 67% | Free throws | 22-31 71% |
| 31 12 off | Rebounds | 37 15 off |
| 16 | Assists | 22 |
| 7 | Steals | 7 |
| 6 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 26 | Fouls | 19 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 54 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| FIU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Stephenson G | 35 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 10-15 | 3-6 |
| Zawdie Jackson G | 26 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-2 |
| Hamed Olayinka F | 21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Ashton Williamson G | 20 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Eric Dibami C | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Julian Mackey G | 25 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Thiago Sucatzky G | 22 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Brit Harris G | 18 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Ibrahim Olajuwon C | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Kennedy Brown F | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Renato Ruiz G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Gvidas Gicevicius, Jorge Santos, Mikey Kelvin II, Aydan Clinton, Amarion Nimmers
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelton Henderson F | 37 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 10-12 | 0-1 |
| Tre Donaldson G | 36 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 3-14 | 1-6 |
| Malik Reneau F | 29 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 8-12 | 0-1 |
| Tru Washington G | 27 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-4 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 21 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Timo Malovec F | 29 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3-10 | 3-10 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 8 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JJ Laboy, Jordyn Kee, Dante Allen, Treyvon Maddox, Marcus Allen
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIA -22.5
ModelMIA -18.8
Model edgeFIU +3.7
W FIU covered
Total
Market161.5
Model156.6
Model edgeUnder 4.9
L Over
Projected score
FIU 68.9 · MIA 87.7
FIU 81 · MIA 98
Win probability
MIA 95%
1st half
Spread
MIA -11.2
tied
Total
73.3
86 points
Projected score
FIU 31.1 · MIA 42.2
FIU 43 · MIA 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -22.5
no move
CloseMIA -22.5
No change since the open
Total
Open155.5
▲ 6
Close161.5
Up 6 since the open
Moneyline
FIU +2000 · MIA -6500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -22.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -19
model MIA -19
Opened 155.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 6 upmodel 156.5
model 156.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIUlast 6 | 3-3 50% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
| MIA | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
FIU 0–1 MIAMIA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · FIU 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2023-24 | FIU 80 @ MIA 86 | MIA -22.5 | FIU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
FIU
6 games played
Straight up
3-3
50% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
NEB
NEBL 66-96
−8.5
13
@
LSU
LSUL 81-98
+4.5
24
vs
JMU
JMUL 72-80
−10.5
26
vs
OMA
OMAW 74-61
+8.5
3
vs
FGCU
FGCUW 89-83
+7.5
6
vs
JAX
JAXW 88-65
+17.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@NEB
NEBL 66-96
+5.5
13
@LSU
LSUL 81-98
+20.5
24
vsJMU
JMUL 72-80
−3.5
26
vsOMA
OMAW 74-61
−22.5
3
vsFGCU
FGCUW 89-83
+17.5
6
vsJAX
JAXW 88-65
+7.5
over 4under 2avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami
11 games played
Straight up
9-2
82% wins
Against the spread
7-4
64% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsJAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
covered 7didn’t cover 4avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
over 6under 5avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
FIU
3-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Jacksonville88–65
- Wvs FGCU89–83
- Wvs Omaha74–61
- Lvs James Madison72–80
- L@ LSU81–98
A week or more of rest.
Miami
9-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UL Monroe104–79
- Wvs Southern Miss88–64
- W@ Ole Miss75–66
- Wvs Georgetown78–65
- Lvs BYU62–72
3 days since their last game.