Watsco Center · at Miami
Closing line
MIA -19.5✓ MIA covered by 4.5
MIA -19.5✓ MIA covered by 4.5Closing total145.5Over by 6.5
 USM | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 7-2 |
| 3-3 | ATS | 6-3 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 4-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 67–87 MIA · ✓ MIA (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 34 | 30 | 64 |
| MIA | 34 | 54 | 88 |
1st half: USM 34, MIA 34 (tied). The model had MIA by 12.2 and a total of 72.1 (actual 68).
Team stats
| USM | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-55 44% | Field goals | 32-68 47% |
| 3-13 23% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 13-19 68% | Free throws | 17-24 71% |
| 32 12 off | Rebounds | 39 18 off |
| 16 | Assists | 20 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 5 | Blocks | 7 |
| 20 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Taveras G | 32 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3-11 | 0-1 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 25 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Brumfield G | 24 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Djahi Binet F | 24 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Curt Lewis G | 23 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chiante' Tramble G | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Israel Hart G | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Fallou Diagne C | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Tegra Izay C | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| IJ Ezuma F | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Felipe Patino G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| EJ Paymon F | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Robert Cowherd G | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Brewer Carruth G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jett Montgomery, Blake Lander, Chandler Watts
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 40 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 5-15 | 1-4 |
| Tru Washington G | 35 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 6-16 | 0-3 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 34 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 23 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Malik Reneau F | 18 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 6-12 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Timo Malovec F | 31 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 5-11 | 4-10 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jordyn Kee G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Dante Allen, JJ Laboy, Noam Dovrat, Treyvon Maddox, Marcus Allen
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIA -19.5
ModelMIA -20.4
Model edgeMIA +0.9
W MIA covered
Total
Market145.5
Model153.9
Model edgeOver 8.4
W Over
Projected score
USM 66.8 · MIA 87.2
USM 64 · MIA 88
Win probability
MIA 96%
1st half
Spread
MIA -12.2
tied
Total
72.1
68 points
Projected score
USM 30 · MIA 42.1
USM 34 · MIA 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -21.5
2 → USM
CloseMIA -19.5
2 pts toward USM
Total
Open152.5
▼ 7
Close145.5
Down 7 since the open
Moneyline
USM +1500 · MIA -3600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -21.5 · closed MIA -19.5 · moved 2 toward USMmodel MIA -20.5
model MIA -20.5
Opened 152.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 7 downmodel 154
model 154
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USMlast 6 | 3-3 50% | 3-3 50% | 4-2 67% |
| MIAlast 9 | 7-2 78% | 6-3 67% | 4-5 44% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
6 games played
Straight up
3-3
50% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@
SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@
GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vs
UNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vs
UTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@
RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
over 4under 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami
9 games played
Straight up
7-2
78% wins
Against the spread
6-3
67% covers · avg +7.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg −5.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
over 4under 5avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
3-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Radford82–75
- Wvs UT Martin70–60
- Wvs North Florida92–83
- L@ Grambling70–75
- L@ South Carolina79–83
3 days since their last game.
Miami
7-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Ole Miss75–66
- Wvs Georgetown78–65
- Lvs BYU62–72
- Wvs Delaware St97–41
- Wvs Elon99–72
4 days since their last game.