Hawkins Arena · at Mercer · Conference game
Closing line
MER -16.5✓ MER covered by 21.5
MER -16.5✓ MER covered by 21.5Closing total147.5Over by 16.5
 CIT | This season | MER |
|---|---|---|
| 0-12 | Record | 5-7 |
| 4-8 | ATS | 10-2 |
| 5-7 | O/U | 5-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CIT 67–82 MER · ✓ MER (91%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIT | 31 | 32 | 63 |
| MER | 54 | 47 | 101 |
1st half: CIT 31, MER 54 (MER by 23). The model had MER by 9.0 and a total of 69.5 (actual 85).
Team stats
| CIT | MER | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-50 44% | Field goals | 34-58 59% |
| 10-26 38% | 3-pointers | 15-28 54% |
| 9-12 75% | Free throws | 18-20 90% |
| 22 9 off | Rebounds | 31 12 off |
| 10 | Assists | 16 |
| 6 | Steals | 9 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| CIT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Applegate G | 31 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 6-12 | 4-9 |
| Braxton Williams F | 25 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Sola Adebisi F | 25 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Carter Kingsbury G | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Christian Moore F | 23 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 5-6 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Eze Wali G | 24 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Simeon German F | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Dante Kearse G | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Marcos Gonzales G | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Gabe Hernandez G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Cassius Bonjasky F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aidan Alexander, Jameson Heck, Jack Walter, Rowan Irelan, Keynan Davis, Chase Williams, Logan Menefee
| MER | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armani Mighty C | 27 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 7-10 | 0-0 |
| Baraka Okojie G | 25 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| Zaire Williams G | 22 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-7 | 3-6 |
| Brady Shoulders G | 21 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Cuffe Jr. G | 20 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Quinton Perkins II G | 22 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 6-10 | 4-7 |
| Tristan Gross G | 21 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 5-6 | 1-2 |
| Connor Serven F | 19 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bendji Pierre F | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Braeden Carlsen G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Jaydon Cole G | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Pero Zubac F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Alex Koch F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| TJ Grant G | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: NJ Nganga, Petras Padegimas
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMER -16.5
ModelMER -15.3
Model edgeCIT +1.2
L MER covered
Total
Market147.5
Model148.4
Model edgeOver 0.9
W Over
Projected score
CIT 66.6 · MER 81.9
CIT 63 · MER 101
Win probability
MER 91%
1st half
Spread
MER -9.0
MER -23.0
Total
69.5
85 points
Projected score
CIT 30.3 · MER 39.3
CIT 31 · MER 54
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMER -16.5
no move
CloseMER -16.5
No change since the open
Total
Open148.5
▼ 1
Close147.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
CIT +950 · MER -1650
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MER -16.5 · unchangedmodel MER -15.5
model MER -15.5
Opened 148.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 1 downmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIT | 0-10 0% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| MER | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
CIT 2–8 MERMER leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MER has won the last 4 meetings · CIT 2-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | MER 62 @ CIT 52 | CIT +7.5 | MER W |
| Jan 29, 2024-25 | CIT 46 @ MER 80 | MER -13.5 | MER W |
| Mar 8, 2023-24 | CIT 76 vs MER 84 | MER -5.5 | MER W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | CIT 78 @ MER 87 | MER -7.5 | MER W |
| Jan 24, 2023-24 | MER 66 @ CIT 68 | CIT -1.5 | CIT W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
The Citadel
12 games played
Straight up
0-12
0% wins
Against the spread
4-8
33% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | @ BC | L 47-76 | +15.5 | L −13.5 | 144.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 10 | vs CHSO | L 86-96 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 14 | @ WGA | L 92-100 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | O 192 |
| Nov 24 | vs BELL | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 26 | vs HCU | L 65-72 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 137.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 30 | vs PRES | L 41-69 | +8.5 | L −19.5 | 133.5 | U 110 |
| Dec 4 | @ DAV | L 63-79 | +18.5 | W +2.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 13 | @ SC | L 55-71 | +22.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 17 | @ COFC | L 78-82 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 146.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 20 | @ RICH | L 56-80 | +18.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 30 | vs ETSU | L 49-74 | +12.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 3 | vs WOF | L 86-95 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | O 181 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@BC
BCL 47-76
−13.5
10
vsCHSO
CHSOL 86-96
−7.5
14
@WGA
WGAL 92-100
−1.5
24
vsBELL
BELLL 58-70
−8.5
26
vsHCU
HCUL 65-72
−5.5
30
vsPRES
PRESL 41-69
−19.5
4
@DAV
DAVL 63-79
+2.5
13
@SC
SCL 55-71
+6.5
17
@COFC
COFCL 78-82
+13.5
20
@RICH
RICHL 56-80
−5.5
30
vsETSU
ETSUL 49-74
−12.5
3
vsWOF
WOFL 86-95
+0.5
covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@BC
BCL 47-76
−21.5
10
vsCHSO
CHSOL 86-96
+36.5
14
@WGA
WGAL 92-100
+41.5
24
vsBELL
BELLL 58-70
−28.5
26
vsHCU
HCUL 65-72
−0.5
30
vsPRES
PRESL 41-69
−23.5
4
@DAV
DAVL 63-79
+4.5
13
@SC
SCL 55-71
−15.5
17
@COFC
COFCL 78-82
+13.5
20
@RICH
RICHL 56-80
−10.5
30
vsETSU
ETSUL 49-74
−17.5
3
vsWOF
WOFL 86-95
+36.5
over 5under 7avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mercer
12 games played
Straight up
5-7
42% wins
Against the spread
10-2
83% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TENN | L 61-76 | +28.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 9 | vs LIP | W 92-77 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 15 | @ WIN | L 69-105 | +2.5 | L −33.5 | 162.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 22 | @ EKU | W 95-83 | +4.5 | W +16.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 26 | vs APP | W 75-67 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | @ ELON | W 91-84 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 2 | vs GAST | W 78-67 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | @ CLEM | L 63-70 | +22.5 | W +15.5 | 152.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 17 | @ UCF | L 63-81 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 20 | @ WSU | L 78-84 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 31 | @ FUR | L 72-74 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 3 | @ETSU | L 71-77 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
+13.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
−33.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+16.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
+1.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+9.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
+0.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
+15.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−1.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+1.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
+0.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
+1.5
covered 10didn’t cover 2avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
−6.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
+11.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+14.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
−0.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+15.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
−10.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
−19.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−16.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+10.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
−8.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
−0.5
over 5under 7avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The Citadel
0-12 overall · 0-2 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Wofford86–95
- Lvs ETSU49–74
- L@ Richmond56–80
- L@ Charleston78–82
- L@ South Carolina55–71
4 days since their last game.
Mercer
5-7 overall · 0-2 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ ETSU71–77
- L@ Furman72–74
- L@ Washington St78–84
- L@ UCF63–81
- L@ Clemson63–70
4 days since their last game.