William R. Johnson Coliseum · at SF Austin · Conference game
Closing line
SFA -7.5✓ SFA covered by 2.5
SFA -7.5✓ SFA covered by 2.5Closing total140.5Under by 38.5
 UIW | This season | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| 5-8 | Record | 11-3 |
| 7-6 | ATS | 12-2 |
| 7-6 | O/U | 4-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UIW 67–75 SFA · ✓ SFA (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UIW | 19 | 27 | 46 |
| SFA | 28 | 28 | 56 |
1st half: UIW 19, SFA 28 (SFA by 9). The model had SFA by 4.5 and a total of 66.5 (actual 47).
Team stats
| UIW | SFA | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-55 33% | Field goals | 21-61 34% |
| 0-13 0% | 3-pointers | 2-20 10% |
| 10-15 67% | Free throws | 12-22 55% |
| 36 8 off | Rebounds | 45 15 off |
| 7 | Assists | 7 |
| 3 | Steals | 9 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| UIW | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Bailey G | 36 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-11 | 0-4 |
| Tahj Staveskie G | 30 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-10 | 0-4 |
| Harold Woods G | 29 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Jordan Pyke G | 19 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Marcus Glover F | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Love Bettis G | 25 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Lewis Rowe C | 18 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Amani Drummond G | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Esteban Mann F | 10 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Williams C | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Mihael Tomic G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tyler Simon, Drew Barbee, Isaiah Kortas, Harrison Reede
| SFA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrishawn Christmas G | 32 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Jerald Colonel F | 24 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Keon Thompson G | 23 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 6-11 | 0-0 |
| Kam Burton G | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Lateef Patrick Jr. G | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Narit Chotikavanic G | 30 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2-11 | 2-9 |
| Ahamed Mohammed G | 26 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3-11 | 0-5 |
| Gediminas Alisas F | 16 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Marcus Scurry G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Christian Green G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Eltramon Smith F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Yohan Gutierrez, Harris Dar, Bryceson Melvin, Tichyque Musaka
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSFA -7.5
ModelSFA -7.7
Model edgeSFA +0.2
W SFA covered
Total
Market140.5
Model141.8
Model edgeOver 1.3
L Under
Projected score
UIW 67.1 · SFA 74.8
UIW 46 · SFA 56
Win probability
SFA 75%
1st half
Spread
SFA -4.5
SFA -9.0
Total
66.5
47 points
Projected score
UIW 31 · SFA 35.5
UIW 19 · SFA 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSFA -8.5
1 → UIW
CloseSFA -7.5
1 pt toward UIW
Total
Open138.5
▲ 2
Close140.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
UIW +300 · SFA -380
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SFA -8.5 · closed SFA -7.5 · moved 1 toward UIWmodel SFA -7.5 matches the line
model SFA -7.5 = line ✓
Opened 138.5 · closed 140.5 · moved 2 upmodel 142
model 142
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UIW | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| SFA | 8-2 80% | 9-1 90% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UIW 2–0 SFAUIW leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · UIW has won the last 2 meetings · UIW 2-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | SFA 61 @ UIW 63 | UIW -1.5 | UIW W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | UIW 55 @ SFA 49 | SFA -5.5 | UIW W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Incarnate Word
13 games played
Straight up
5-8
38% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CSU | L 64-98 | +10.5 | L −23.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 16 | @ IU | L 61-69 | +28.5 | W +20.5 | 157.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 20 | vs USI | W 87-81 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 22 | vs HPU | L 80-91 | +12.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 1 | vs MCN | W 71-67 | +10.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | @ NICH | L 67-74 | -1.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 8 | @ NOLA | L 83-84 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 15 | @ TCU | L 65-69 | +19.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 21 | vs NAU | W 90-66 | -6.5 | W +17.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 30 | vs SELA | W 79-70 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | vs HCU | W 73-56 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 5 | @ RGV | L 67-80 | +1.5 | L −11.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Jan 10 | @ LAM | L 51-63 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | U 114 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CSU
CSUL 64-98
−23.5
16
@IU
IUL 61-69
+20.5
20
vsUSI
USIW 87-81
−3.5
22
vsHPU
HPUL 80-91
+1.5
1
vsMCN
MCNW 71-67
+14.5
6
@NICH
NICHL 67-74
−8.5
8
@NOLA
NOLAL 83-84
−2.5
15
@TCU
TCUL 65-69
+15.5
21
vsNAU
NAUW 90-66
+17.5
30
vsSELA
SELAW 79-70
+2.5
3
vsHCU
HCUW 73-56
+10.5
5
@RGV
RGVL 67-80
−11.5
10
@LAM
LAML 51-63
−10.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CSU
CSUL 64-98
+14.5
16
@IU
IUL 61-69
−27.5
20
vsUSI
USIW 87-81
+22.5
22
vsHPU
HPUL 80-91
+10.5
1
vsMCN
MCNW 71-67
−7.5
6
@NICH
NICHL 67-74
−4.5
8
@NOLA
NOLAL 83-84
+18.5
15
@TCU
TCUL 65-69
−9.5
21
vsNAU
NAUW 90-66
+15.5
30
vsSELA
SELAW 79-70
+13.5
3
vsHCU
HCUW 73-56
−12.5
5
@RGV
RGVL 67-80
+0.5
10
@LAM
LAML 51-63
−26.5
over 7under 6avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
SF Austin
14 games played
Straight up
11-3
79% wins
Against the spread
12-2
86% covers · avg +6.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-10
29% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs ARST | W 90-65 | +1.5 | W +26.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ RICE | W 81-69 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 14 | vs ACU | W 76-66 | -6.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 18 | @ FRES | L 78-80 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 21 | @ PEPP | W 63-60 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 29 | @ UTA | L 61-66 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 138.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 3 | vsRGV | W 73-60 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 7 | vs ULM | W 96-76 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 142.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 17 | vs AMCC | W 69-60 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 139.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 29 | @ ETAM | W 75-48 | -4.5 | W +22.5 | 146.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 31 | @ NWST | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 3 | @SELA | W 73-63 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 137.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 5 | @MCN | L 64-66 | +10.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vsHCU | W 85-67 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 137.5 | O 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsARST
ARSTW 90-65
+26.5
11
@RICE
RICEW 81-69
+14.5
14
vsACU
ACUW 76-66
+3.5
18
@FRES
FRESL 78-80
−4.5
21
@PEPP
PEPPW 63-60
+1.5
29
@UTA
UTAL 61-66
−3.5
3
vsRGV
RGVW 73-60
+6.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 96-76
+0.5
17
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-60
+2.5
29
@ETAM
ETAMW 75-48
+22.5
31
@NWST
NWSTW 74-64
+1.5
3
@SELA
SELAW 73-63
+6.5
5
@MCN
MCNL 64-66
+8.5
10
vsHCU
HCUW 85-67
+5.5
covered 12didn’t cover 2avg +6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsARST
ARSTW 90-65
−0.5
11
@RICE
RICEW 81-69
+0.5
14
vsACU
ACUW 76-66
−0.5
18
@FRES
FRESL 78-80
+11.5
21
@PEPP
PEPPW 63-60
−25.5
29
@UTA
UTAL 61-66
−11.5
3
vsRGV
RGVW 73-60
−10.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 96-76
+29.5
17
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-60
−10.5
29
@ETAM
ETAMW 75-48
−23.5
31
@NWST
NWSTW 74-64
−0.5
3
@SELA
SELAW 73-63
−1.5
5
@MCN
MCNL 64-66
−14.5
10
vsHCU
HCUW 85-67
+14.5
over 4under 10avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Incarnate Word
5-8 overall · 3-4 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Lamar51–63
- L@ UT Rio Grande67–80
- Wvs Hou Christian73–56
- Wvs SE Louisiana79–70
- Wvs N Arizona90–66
2 days since their last game.
SF Austin
11-3 overall · 6-1 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Hou Christian85–67
- L@ McNeese64–66
- W@ SE Louisiana73–63
- W@ N'Western St74–64
- W@ East Texas A&M75–48
2 days since their last game.