UL Monroe Warhawks at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 8, 8:57 PM ETCajundome · at Louisiana · Conference game

#358ULMUL Monroe79final

Final

#221ULLouisiana85▲ winner

Closing lineUL -7.5✓ ULM covered by 1.5

Closing total139.5Over by 24.5

Season records: UL Monroe and Louisiana
ULM	This season	UL
1-13	Record	3-13
7-7	ATS	7-9
12-2	O/U	5-11

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ULM 68–75 UL · ✓ UL (73%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ULM	36	43	79
UL	37	48	85

1st half: ULM 36, UL 37 (UL by 1). The model had UL by 4.1 and a total of 66.9 (actual 73).

Team stats

ULM		UL
28-52 54%	Field goals	33-68 49%
7-13 54%	3-pointers	11-33 33%
16-22 73%	Free throws	8-15 53%
23 4 off	Rebounds	40 18 off
9	Assists	16
8	Steals	5
1	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	15
16	Fouls	18
40	Points in paint	34
6	Fast-break points	9

Players

ULM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Krystian Lewis G	39	25	7	3	9-13	2-3
MJ Russell G	38	14	1	2	5-14	1-2
Renars Sondors F	34	12	3	1	3-6	1-3
Dylan Diaz G	27	6	1	0	2-3	2-3
Lavell Brodnex G	10	6	3	0	2-5	0-1
Bench
Alex Molofeev G	26	9	3	2	4-6	0-0
Micah Caster G	14	3	0	1	1-2	1-1
Ayomide Bamisile F	11	4	2	0	2-3	0-0
Wiggy Ball G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Alex Huguet, Przemek Hartman, Brady Craig, Cam Campbell, Brentay Noel, Ajay Tew

UL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dorian Finister G	32	16	6	4	6-13	3-5
Joshua Lewis F	31	26	9	1	10-13	2-4
Milan Mejia G	23	0	1	0	0-6	0-6
De'vion Lavergne G	23	7	2	3	3-9	1-4
Todd Jones Jr. F	12	2	5	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Jaxon Olvera G	26	10	2	3	4-8	2-6
Dariyus Woodson F	15	17	4	0	6-6	2-2
Jeremiah Evans F	15	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Karris Bilal G	13	5	2	1	2-6	1-3
Kyran Ratliff F	8	0	2	2	0-1	0-1
Mike Collins G	2	0	1	2	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Rahman Olajuwon, Logan Myers, Sean Elkinton, Michael Mouton, Christian Landry, Zeke Cook, Jamyron Keller

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UL -7.5	UL -7.1	ULM +0.4	W ULM covered
Total	139.5	142.8	Over 3.3	W Over
Projected score	—	ULM 67.8 · UL 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UL -4.1	UL -1.0
1H total	66.9	73
1H projected score	ULM 31.4 · UL 35.5	ULM 36 · UL 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WLWLW	7-7	50%	3-4	6-7
UL WWWLL	7-9	44%	4-3	3-1

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM OOOOO	12-2	86%	1-13
UL UOUUO	5-11	31%	3-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	1-9 10%	6-4 60%	9-1 90%
UL	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ULM 1–9 ULUL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UL has won the last 4 meetings · ULM 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2025-26	UL 76 @ ULM 62	ULM +1.5	UL W
Mar 4, 2024-25	ULM 69 vs UL 73	UL -5.5	ULM W
Jan 18, 2024-25	UL 65 @ ULM 60	ULM +1.5	UL W
Jan 11, 2024-25	ULM 68 @ UL 71	UL -6.5	ULM W
Feb 22, 2023-24	UL 59 @ ULM 66	ULM +6.5	ULM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UL Monroe

14 games played

Straight up

1-13

7% wins

Against the spread

7-7

50% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-2

86% overs · avg +10.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-137%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-750%

L W L L W L W L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-286%

O O U O O O U O O O O O O O

7 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NIU	L 82-102	+7.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@MISS	L 65-86	+37.5	W +16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 13	@HCU	L 61-72	+8.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 17	vsLAM	L 66-79	+11.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 22	vsMORE	L 80-83	+6.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 23	@ETSU	L 55-97	+19.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 3	vsMVSU	W 66-52	-9.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 7	@SFA	L 76-96	+19.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 13	@MIA	L 79-104	+35.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 183
Dec 17	vsUSA	L 92-96	+9.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 188
Dec 20	vsUL	L 62-76	+1.5	L −12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	@KSU	L 85-94	+32.5	W +23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 1	vsUSM	L 73-87	+9.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	vsTXST	L 79-84	+10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

−12.5

MISS

L 65-86

+16.5

HCU

L 61-72

−2.5

LAM

L 66-79

−1.5

L 80-83

+3.5

ETSU

L 55-97

−22.5

MVSU

W 66-52

+4.5

SFA

L 76-96

−0.5

MIA

L 79-104

+10.5

USA

L 92-96

+5.5

L 62-76

−12.5

KSU

L 85-94

+23.5

USM

L 73-87

−4.5

TXST

L 79-84

+5.5

covered 7didn’t cover 7avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

+36.5

MISS

L 65-86

+1.5

HCU

L 61-72

−10.5

LAM

L 66-79

+4.5

L 80-83

+17.5

ETSU

L 55-97

+5.5

MVSU

W 66-52

−31.5

SFA

L 76-96

+29.5

MIA

L 79-104

+29.5

USA

L 92-96

+39.5

L 62-76

+1.5

KSU

L 85-94

+9.5

USM

L 73-87

+7.5

TXST

L 79-84

+12.5

over 12under 2avg +10.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Louisiana

16 games played

Straight up

3-13

19% wins

Against the spread

7-9

44% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-11

31% overs · avg −6.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1319%

L W L L L L L L L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-944%

L W W L L L L L W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-1131%

U U U O O U U U U O U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	@SCU	L 43-80	+19.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 24	@UCD	L 56-77	+9.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsJKST	L 45-51	-5.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 3	@LAM	L 55-65	+10.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 120
Dec 6	vsUNCW	L 63-70	+12.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@LT	L 44-65	+9.5	L −11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 18	@USM	L 54-62	+11.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ULM	W 76-62	-1.5	W +12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	vsNORF	W 63-54	-3.5	W +5.5	126.5	U 117
Dec 31	vsUSA	L 58-63	+3.5	L −1.5	127.5	U 121
Jan 3	vsUSM	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	129.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−11.5

JKST

L 45-51

−11.5

LAM

L 55-65

+0.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+5.5

L 44-65

−11.5

USM

L 54-62

+3.5

ULM

W 76-62

+12.5

NORF

W 63-54

+5.5

USA

L 58-63

−1.5

USM

L 67-74

−3.5

covered 7didn’t cover 9avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−3.5

JKST

L 45-51

−40.5

LAM

L 55-65

−9.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+2.5

L 44-65

−17.5

USM

L 54-62

−16.5

ULM

W 76-62

+1.5

NORF

W 63-54

−9.5

USA

L 58-63

−6.5

USM

L 67-74

+11.5

over 5under 11avg −6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UL Monroe @ Louisiana

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UL Monroe

Louisiana

UL Monroe

Louisiana