Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St · Conference game
Closing line
ARST -4.5✓ ARST covered by 14.5
ARST -4.5✓ ARST covered by 14.5Closing total151.5Over by 7.5
| ARST | This season | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4 | Record | 5-5 |
| 7-3 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 5-5 | O/U | 5-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ARST 79–75 TXST · ✓ ARST (62%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 41 | 48 | 89 |
| TXST | 32 | 38 | 70 |
1st half: ARST 41, TXST 32 (ARST by 9). The model had ARST by 2.3 and a total of 72.0 (actual 73).
Team stats
| ARST | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-55 56% | Field goals | 26-62 42% |
| 12-22 55% | 3-pointers | 3-11 27% |
| 15-20 75% | Free throws | 15-18 83% |
| 39 11 off | Rebounds | 23 9 off |
| 21 | Assists | 16 |
| 4 | Steals | 13 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| ARST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Jackson G | 28 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Matt Hayman G | 25 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-4 |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth F | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Fredy-Salam Sylla G | 19 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 5-6 | 1-2 |
| Chudi Dioramma F | 18 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Hampton G | 25 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Christian Harmon G | 24 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 6-10 | 5-7 |
| Aly Tounkara F | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| T.J. Caldwell G | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Royal Blue Smith G | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
Did not play: CJ Geathers, Weston Honeycutt, Tim Matthews, Grayson Bennett, Joey Chammaa
| TXST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Gumbs G | 38 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-0 |
| Mark Drone G | 37 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 5-11 | 1-4 |
| DJ Hall F | 34 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7-16 | 0-1 |
| Kyndall Davis G | 22 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 5-10 | 1-2 |
| Makai Willis C | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tay Knox C | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Robert Fields C | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Bolden G | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Franck Emmou G | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Jaelyn Lee G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cameron Simpson, Isaiah Barganier, Ky Pernell, Dimp Pernell, Deke Thompson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARST -4.5
ModelARST -3.5
Model edgeTXST +1.0
L ARST covered
Total
Market151.5
Model153.9
Model edgeOver 2.4
W Over
Projected score
ARST 78.7 · TXST 75.2
ARST 89 · TXST 70
Win probability
ARST 62%
1st half
Spread
ARST -2.3
ARST -9.0
Total
72.0
73 points
Projected score
ARST 37.1 · TXST 34.9
ARST 41 · TXST 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARST -2.5
2 → ARST
CloseARST -4.5
2 pts toward ARST
Total
Open149.5
▲ 2
Close151.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
ARST -192 · TXST +160
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARST -2.5 · closed ARST -4.5 · moved 2 toward ARSTmodel ARST -3.5
model ARST -3.5
Opened 149.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 2 upmodel 154
model 154
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| TXST | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
ARST 5–3 TXSTARST leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · ARST has won the last 4 meetings · ARST 5-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | ARST 85 @ TXST 74 | TXST +5.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | TXST 65 @ ARST 80 | ARST -10.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | ARST 79 @ TXST 72 | TXST +1.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | TXST 82 @ ARST 85 | ARST -5.5 | TXST W |
| Feb 9, 2022-23 | ARST 62 @ TXST 66 | TXST -6.5 | ARST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Arkansas St
10 games played
Straight up
6-4
60% wins
Against the spread
7-3
70% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ OHIO | W 89-85 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 7 | @ SFA | L 65-90 | -1.5 | L −26.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ MOST | W 86-85 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | @ SMC | L 72-85 | +20.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ SMU | L 69-100 | +14.5 | L −16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs JXST | W 74-63 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 28 | vs NDSU | W 85-80 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTA | W 83-63 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ LR | W 90-78 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | @ RICE | L 76-77 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+7.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−26.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+2.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−16.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
+6.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+1.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
+14.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+2.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−3.5
covered 7didn’t cover 3avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+14.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−0.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+18.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−3.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
−18.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+4.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
−5.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+20.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−2.5
over 5under 5avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas St
10 games played
Straight up
5-5
50% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BGSU | L 48-83 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 8 | @ TULN | L 71-79 | +12.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 12 | vs UTSA | W 80-69 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 15 | vs TXSO | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 18 | vs ACU | W 63-49 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | U 112 |
| Nov 21 | vsLR | W 65-56 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 131.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs SEA | L 52-66 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 29 | vs LEH | L 74-78 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @RICE | L 72-77 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 133.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs SOU | W 86-83 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−29.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+4.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+8.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
+5.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
+12.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
+3.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−6.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
−10.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
−1.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
−0.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−15.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+3.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+1.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
−0.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
−26.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
−10.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−18.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
+16.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
+15.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
+26.5
over 5under 5avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Arkansas St
6-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Rice76–77
- W@ Little Rock90–78
- Wvs UT Arlington83–63
- Wvs N Dakota St85–80
- Wvs Jax State74–63
4 days since their last game.
Texas St
5-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Southern86–83
- L@ Rice72–77
- Lvs Lehigh74–78
- Lvs Seattle U52–66
- Wvs Little Rock65–56
A week or more of rest.