Worthington Arena · at Montana St · Conference game
Closing line
MTST -2.5✓ MTST covered by 11.5
MTST -2.5✓ MTST covered by 11.5Closing total154.5Over by 9.5
 UNCO | This season | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | Record | 3-7 |
| 7-3 | ATS | 7-3 |
| 7-3 | O/U | 6-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNCO 77–79 MTST · ✓ MTST (56%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCO | 33 | 42 | 75 |
| MTST | 39 | 50 | 89 |
1st half: UNCO 33, MTST 39 (MTST by 6). The model had MTST by 1.0 and a total of 72.6 (actual 72).
Team stats
| UNCO | MTST | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-64 42% | Field goals | 33-63 52% |
| 9-25 36% | 3-pointers | 10-28 36% |
| 12-13 92% | Free throws | 13-18 72% |
| 36 11 off | Rebounds | 30 7 off |
| 11 | Assists | 9 |
| 2 | Steals | 7 |
| 0 | Blocks | 3 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| UNCO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Denker G | 38 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 6-17 | 0-1 |
| Zach Bloch G | 36 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 6-14 | 4-9 |
| Brock Wisne F | 36 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3-10 | 0-3 |
| Ibu Yamazaki F | 33 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 4-9 | 3-7 |
| Ring Nyeri F | 18 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Vincent Delano G | 18 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Egan Shields C | 16 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Ariik Mawien G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Will Dixion III, Kaden Ericksen, Steven Ramirez Jr., Tanner Braketa, Hunter Caldwell, Walker Asp, William Humer, Chancellor White
| MTST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Miller G | 35 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 9-14 | 3-7 |
| Patrick McMahon G | 29 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| Jeremiah Davis G | 28 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 7-10 | 1-3 |
| Davian Brown G | 28 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 6-9 | 4-7 |
| Chris Hodges F | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Christian King F | 27 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 4-11 | 2-6 |
| Jaden Steppe F | 18 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Seth Amunrud G | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Howie Keene G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cavin Holden, James Steward, CJ Purdie, Grayson Gaddis, Calum Rutherfurd, Waka Mbatch
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMTST -2.5
ModelMTST -1.8
Model edgeUNCO +0.7
L MTST covered
Total
Market154.5
Model155.1
Model edgeOver 0.6
W Over
Projected score
UNCO 76.6 · MTST 78.5
UNCO 75 · MTST 89
Win probability
MTST 56%
1st half
Spread
MTST -1.0
MTST -6.0
Total
72.6
72 points
Projected score
UNCO 35.8 · MTST 36.8
UNCO 33 · MTST 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMTST -2.5
no move
CloseMTST -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open149.5
▲ 5
Close154.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
UNCO +124 · MTST -148
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MTST -2.5 · unchangedmodel MTST -2
model MTST -2
Opened 149.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 5 upmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCO | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
| MTST | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
UNCO 5–6 MTSTMTST leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · UNCO has won the last 4 meetings · UNCO 4-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2024-25 | MTST 45 vs UNCO 72 | UNCO -5.5 | UNCO W |
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | MTST 66 @ UNCO 73 | UNCO -5.5 | UNCO W |
| Jan 9, 2024-25 | UNCO 83 @ MTST 82 | MTST -1.5 | UNCO W |
| Feb 8, 2023-24 | MTST 70 @ UNCO 73 | UNCO -7.5 | MTST W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | UNCO 81 @ MTST 90 | MTST +1.5 | MTST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
N Colorado
10 games played
Straight up
7-3
70% wins
Against the spread
7-3
70% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-3
70% overs · avg +6.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 | @ PEPP | W 88-81 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 21 | vs STMN | L 72-73 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | @ PORT | W 86-80 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 23 | vs CSUF | W 97-93 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 164.5 | O 190 |
| Nov 26 | @ AF | W 71-53 | -4.5 | W +13.5 | 146.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 3 | @ OMA | W 75-70 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 6 | vs SDAK | W 89-87 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 162.5 | O 176 |
| Dec 16 | @ TTU | L 90-101 | +25.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | O 191 |
| Dec 20 | vs DEN | L 79-86 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 159.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 28 | @ COLO | W 86-81 | +15.5 | W +20.5 | 158.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
15
@PEPP
PEPPW 88-81
+5.5
21
vsSTMN
STMNL 72-73
+3.5
22
@PORT
PORTW 86-80
+2.5
23
vsCSUF
CSUFW 97-93
−4.5
26
@AF
AFW 71-53
+13.5
3
@OMA
OMAW 75-70
+1.5
6
vsSDAK
SDAKW 89-87
−6.5
16
@TTU
TTUL 90-101
+14.5
20
vsDEN
DENL 79-86
−15.5
28
@COLO
COLOW 86-81
+20.5
covered 7didn’t cover 3avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
15
@PEPP
PEPPW 88-81
+15.5
21
vsSTMN
STMNL 72-73
−12.5
22
@PORT
PORTW 86-80
+8.5
23
vsCSUF
CSUFW 97-93
+25.5
26
@AF
AFW 71-53
−22.5
3
@OMA
OMAW 75-70
−12.5
6
vsSDAK
SDAKW 89-87
+13.5
16
@TTU
TTUL 90-101
+38.5
20
vsDEN
DENL 79-86
+5.5
28
@COLO
COLOW 86-81
+8.5
over 7under 3avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Montana St
10 games played
Straight up
3-7
30% wins
Against the spread
7-3
70% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-4
60% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @COLO | L 78-84 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 9 | vsDEN | L 73-75 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 12 | @ STAN | L 68-77 | +14.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 15 | @ BOIS | L 58-62 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 21 | @ LBSU | W 78-72 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 140.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 29 | @ USU | L 81-84 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 3 | vsSTMN | W 82-74 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ORU | L 68-72 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | @ ORST | L 57-67 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 140.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 16 | @ CP | W 83-80 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+5.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
−9.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
+5.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
+12.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+2.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+14.5
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 82-74
+5.5
6
@ORU
ORUL 68-72
−10.5
13
@ORST
ORSTL 57-67
−8.5
16
@CP
CPW 83-80
+0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 3avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+13.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
+1.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
−3.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
−27.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+9.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+16.5
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 82-74
+8.5
6
@ORU
ORUL 68-72
−10.5
13
@ORST
ORSTL 57-67
−16.5
16
@CP
CPW 83-80
+3.5
over 6under 4avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
N Colorado
7-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Colorado86–81
- Lvs Denver79–86
- L@ Texas Tech90–101
- Wvs South Dakota89–87
- W@ Omaha75–70
4 days since their last game.
Montana St
3-7 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Cal Poly83–80
- L@ Oregon St57–67
- L@ Oral Roberts68–72
- Wvs St Thomas82–74
- L@ Utah State81–84
A week or more of rest.