Worthington Arena · at Montana St · Conference game
Closing line
MTST -5.5✓ MTST covered by 3.5
MTST -5.5✓ MTST covered by 3.5Closing total150.5Under by 7.5
 MONT | This season | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | Record | 6-8 |
| 7-6 | ATS | 9-5 |
| 6-7 | O/U | 9-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MONT 73–78 MTST · ✓ MTST (67%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MONT | 31 | 36 | 67 |
| MTST | 32 | 44 | 76 |
1st half: MONT 31, MTST 32 (MTST by 1). The model had MTST by 2.9 and a total of 70.5 (actual 63).
Team stats
| MONT | MTST | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-53 43% | Field goals | 25-60 42% |
| 8-21 38% | 3-pointers | 9-20 45% |
| 13-14 93% | Free throws | 17-22 77% |
| 30 3 off | Rebounds | 36 10 off |
| 11 | Assists | 10 |
| 3 | Steals | 10 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| MONT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thompson G | 32 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Te'Jon Sawyer F | 30 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Tyler Isaak G | 29 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Money Williams G | 26 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 7-11 | 0-1 |
| Kenyon Aguino F | 23 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brooklyn Hicks G | 24 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Grant Kepley G | 23 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-2 |
| Kadyn Betts F | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Chase Henderson G | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Connor Dick, Amari Jedkins, Trae Taylor, Luke Moxon, Courtney Anderson Jr.
| MTST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Miller G | 36 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
| Davian Brown G | 35 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 6-13 | 4-8 |
| Jeremiah Davis G | 29 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 5-7 | 2-3 |
| Chris Hodges F | 29 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Patrick McMahon G | 25 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Christian King F | 19 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 2-7 | 2-2 |
| Seth Amunrud G | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Jaden Steppe F | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Howie Keene, Grayson Gaddis, CJ Purdie, Cavin Holden, Calum Rutherfurd, Waka Mbatch, James Steward
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMTST -5.5
ModelMTST -5.0
Model edgeMONT +0.5
L MTST covered
Total
Market150.5
Model150.6
Model edgeOver 0.1
L Under
Projected score
MONT 72.8 · MTST 77.8
MONT 67 · MTST 76
Win probability
MTST 67%
1st half
Spread
MTST -2.9
MTST -1.0
Total
70.5
63 points
Projected score
MONT 33.8 · MTST 36.7
MONT 31 · MTST 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMTST -5.5
no move
CloseMTST -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open150.5
no move
Close150.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MONT +200 · MTST -245
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MTST -5.5 · unchangedmodel MTST -5
model MTST -5
Opened 150.5 · unchangedmodel 150.5 matches the line
model 150.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MONT | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| MTST | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
MONT 5–4 MTSTMONT leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · MONT has won the last 2 meetings · MONT 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | MONT 89 @ MTST 85 | MTST -1.5 | MONT W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | MTST 70 @ MONT 77 | MONT -3.5 | MONT W |
| Mar 13, 2023-24 | MTST 85 vs MONT 70 | MONT -6.5 | MTST W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | MTST 69 @ MONT 88 | MONT -7.5 | MONT W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | MONT 87 @ MTST 77 | MTST +4.5 | MONT W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Montana
13 games played
Straight up
6-7
46% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-7
46% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ STAN | L 68-91 | +12.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ UNLV | W 102-93 | +10.5 | W +19.5 | 157.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 14 | vs CP | W 90-82 | -7.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 18 | @ TA&M | L 81-86 | +17.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 23 | vs LAM | L 63-68 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 25 | vs OAK | L 87-95 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 162.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 3 | vs NDSU | L 72-81 | -3.5 | L −12.5 | 153.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 6 | @ UND | W 79-75 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 20 | @ LOU | L 54-94 | +30.5 | L −9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 1 | vs NAU | W 78-64 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 3 | vs UNCO | W 88-79 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 161.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 8 | @ IDHO | W 79-73 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 10 | @ EWU | L 65-66 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 161.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@STAN
STANL 68-91
−10.5
11
@UNLV
UNLVW 102-93
+19.5
14
vsCP
CPW 90-82
+0.5
18
@TA&M
TA&ML 81-86
+12.5
23
vsLAM
LAML 63-68
−9.5
25
vsOAK
OAKL 87-95
−12.5
3
vsNDSU
NDSUL 72-81
−12.5
6
@UND
UNDW 79-75
−1.5
20
@LOU
LOUL 54-94
−9.5
1
vsNAU
NAUW 78-64
+8.5
3
vsUNCO
UNCOW 88-79
+10.5
8
@IDHO
IDHOW 79-73
+10.5
10
@EWU
EWUL 65-66
+0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@STAN
STANL 68-91
+8.5
11
@UNLV
UNLVW 102-93
+37.5
14
vsCP
CPW 90-82
+3.5
18
@TA&M
TA&ML 81-86
+2.5
23
vsLAM
LAML 63-68
−17.5
25
vsOAK
OAKL 87-95
+19.5
3
vsNDSU
NDSUL 72-81
−0.5
6
@UND
UNDW 79-75
−0.5
20
@LOU
LOUL 54-94
−18.5
1
vsNAU
NAUW 78-64
−7.5
3
vsUNCO
UNCOW 88-79
+5.5
8
@IDHO
IDHOW 79-73
−2.5
10
@EWU
EWUL 65-66
−30.5
over 6under 7avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Montana St
14 games played
Straight up
6-8
43% wins
Against the spread
9-5
64% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-5
64% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ COLO | L 78-84 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 9 | vs DEN | L 73-75 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 12 | @STAN | L 68-77 | +14.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 15 | @ BOIS | L 58-62 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 21 | @ LBSU | W 78-72 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 140.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 29 | @ USU | L 81-84 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 3 | vs STMN | W 82-74 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ORU | L 68-72 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | @ ORST | L 57-67 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 140.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 16 | @CP | W 83-80 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 1 | vsUNCO | W 89-75 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | vsNAU | W 77-68 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 8 | @EWU | W 68-64 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 10 | @IDHO | L 89-92 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 181 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+5.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
−9.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
+5.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
+12.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+2.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+14.5
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 82-74
+5.5
6
@ORU
ORUL 68-72
−10.5
13
@ORST
ORSTL 57-67
−8.5
16
@CP
CPW 83-80
+0.5
1
vsUNCO
UNCOW 89-75
+11.5
3
vsNAU
NAUW 77-68
−1.5
8
@EWU
EWUW 68-64
+1.5
10
@IDHO
IDHOL 89-92
−1.5
covered 9didn’t cover 5avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+13.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
+1.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
−3.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
−27.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+9.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+16.5
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 82-74
+8.5
6
@ORU
ORUL 68-72
−10.5
13
@ORST
ORSTL 57-67
−16.5
16
@CP
CPW 83-80
+3.5
1
vsUNCO
UNCOW 89-75
+9.5
3
vsNAU
NAUW 77-68
+1.5
8
@EWU
EWUW 68-64
−24.5
10
@IDHO
IDHOL 89-92
+36.5
over 9under 5avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Montana
6-7 overall · 3-1 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ E Washington65–66
- W@ Idaho79–73
- Wvs N Colorado88–79
- Wvs N Arizona78–64
- L@ Louisville54–94
A week or more of rest.
Montana St
6-8 overall · 3-1 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Idaho89–92
- W@ E Washington68–64
- Wvs N Arizona77–68
- Wvs N Colorado89–75
- W@ Cal Poly83–80
A week or more of rest.