When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
10 games · 2024 · App State · pick one to list those games
20% went over. Of the 2 overs, 50% had cashed by halftime and 100% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 10% of games.
All 10 games
2024 · App State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 14 |
GASO -2.5 | 60.5 | 8212849 | U | GASO Q4 Late cover flip |
20–29 |
2024 · Week 13 |
JMU -6.5 | 56.5 | 7415154 | U | APP Q2 | 20–34 |
2024 · Week 11 |
APP -1.5 | 62.5 | 14274162 | U | CCU Q1 | 24–38 |
2024 · Week 10 |
ODU -2.5 | 58.5 | 10314148 | U | APP Q3 | 20–28 |
2024 · Week 9 |
APP -7.5 | 59.5 | 2344859 | U | GAST Q1 Lead lost |
26–33 |
2024 · Week 7 |
UL -10.5 | 63.5 | 3313758 | U | APP Q1 | 24–34 |
2024 · Week 6 |
MRSH -3.5 | 56.5 | 10456289 | Q3 | MRSH Q1 | 37–52 |
2024 · Week 3 |
ECU -0.5 | 56.5 | 16303740 | U | APP Q3 | 21–19 |
2024 · Week 2 |
CLEM -13.5 | 53.5 | 35698686 | Q2 | CLEM Q1 | 20–66 |
 ETSU @  APP2024 · Week 1 |
APP -35.5 | 58.5 | 10243448 | U | ETSU Q1 | 10–38 |
GASO
JMU
CCU
ODU
GAST
UL
MRSH
ECU
CLEMWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 60% 6
Q2 10% 1
Q3 20% 2
Q4 10% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 50% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 70% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.