When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
10 games · 2023 · Temple · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 30% of games.
All 10 games
2023 · Temple · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
MEM -13 | 64 | 20344966 | Q4 | MEM Q2 Late over |
45–21 |
2023 · Week 12 |
UAB -7.5 | 61.5 | 7243458 | U | UAB Q4 Late cover flip |
24–34 |
2023 · Week 11 |
USF -7 | 70 | 17303750 | U | TEM Q4 | 23–27 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NAVY -6.5 | 46.5 | 10172550 | Q4 | TEM Q1 Late over |
18–32 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SMU -24 | 53 | 14244155 | Q4 | SMU Q3 | 55–0 |
2023 · Week 7 |
UNT -6.5 | 65.5 | 21384559 | U | UNT Q1 | 14–45 |
2023 · Week 5 |
TLSA -3 | 56 | 17244974 | Q4 | TLSA Q1 | 26–48 |
2023 · Week 4 |
MIA -23 | 46.5 | 7314548 | Q4 | MIA Q3 | 41–7 |
 NORF @  TEM2023 · Week 3 |
TEM -31.5 | 55 | 14354550 | U | TEM Q4 Late cover flip |
9–41 |
2023 · Week 2 |
RUTG -7.5 | 43.5 | 7131343 | U | RUTG Q2 | 7–36 |
MEM
UAB
USF
NAVY
SMU
UNT
TLSA
MIA
RUTGWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 30% 3
Q2 20% 2
Q3 20% 2
Q4 30% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 89% of 9 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 25% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.