When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
10 games · 2023 · North Texas · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 44% of games.
All 10 games
2023 · North Texas · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
UNT -2 | 72 | 20425387 | Q4 | UNT Q4 | 42–45 |
2023 · Week 12 |
UNT -2 | 69 | 14425663 | U | UNT Q3 | 35–28 |
2023 · Week 11 |
SMU -20 | 66.5 | 21314566 | U | SMU Q4 | 21–45 |
2023 · Week 10 |
UTSA -8 | 70 | 10404366 | U | Push | 37–29 |
2023 · Week 9 |
MEM -6.5 | 69.5 | 21415287 | Q4 | UNT Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
45–42 |
2023 · Week 8 |
TULN -20 | 63.5 | 7214963 | U | UNT Q3 | 28–35 |
2023 · Week 7 |
UNT -6.5 | 65.5 | 21384559 | U | UNT Q1 | 14–45 |
 ACU @  UNT2023 · Week 5 |
UNT -15.5 | 70.5 | 31486976 | Q4 | ACU Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
31–45 |
2023 · Week 3 |
LT -4.5 | 66.5 | 10374477 | Q4 | UNT Q1 Late over |
40–37 |
2023 · Week 2 |
UNT -11 | 53 | 17376585 | Q3 | FIU Q1 | 39–46 |
UAB
TLSA
SMU
UTSA
MEM
TULN
TEM
LT
FIUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 30% 3
Q2 0% 0
Q3 20% 2
Q4 40% 4
OT 0% 0
Push 10% 1
The team leading at halftime won 78% and covered 33% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 50% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.