When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
9 games · 2023 · Nebraska · pick one to list those games
56% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 13% of games.
All 9 games
2023 · Nebraska · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 12 |
WIS -7 | 36.5 | 1424313441 | OT | Push Late cover flip Late over |
17–24 |
2023 · Week 11 |
MD -2 | 42.5 | 071723 | U | MD Q4 Late cover flip |
13–10 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NEB -3 | 35.5 | 3202337 | Q4 | MSU Q1 Late over |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 9 |
PUR -1.5 | 39.5 | 0142145 | Q4 | NEB Q1 Late over |
14–31 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NEB -10.5 | 40 | 6161626 | U | NU Q1 | 9–17 |
2023 · Week 5 |
MICH -17.5 | 40 | 14283552 | Q4 | MICH Q2 Late over |
45–7 |
2023 · Week 4 |
NEB -20.5 | 44.5 | 0142142 | U | LT Q1 | 14–28 |
2023 · Week 3 |
NEB -11.5 | 42.5 | 10172446 | Q4 | NEB Q3 Late over |
11–35 |
2023 · Week 2 |
COLO -2.5 | 56.5 | 0133050 | U | COLO Q2 | 14–36 |
NEB
WIS
MD
MSU
PUR
NU
MICH
LT
NIU
COLOWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 44% 4
Q2 22% 2
Q3 11% 1
Q4 11% 1
OT 0% 0
Push 11% 1
The team leading at halftime won 86% and covered 71% of 7 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 56% of 9 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.