1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Kentucky ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Kentucky · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q3217%In Q4650%In OT00%Stayed under433%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands217%Over cashed00%Leader lost the game18%
67% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 33% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Kentucky · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 CLEM -3.5 44 10243173 Q4 UK Q1
Lead lost
 38–35
2023 · Week 13
 LOU -7.5 48 7174569 Q4 UK Q1 38–31
2023 · Week 12
 SC -2 52 10172431 U SC Q4 14–17
2023 · Week 11
 ALA -11.5 47 28354970 Q3 ALA Q1 49–21
2023 · Week 10
 UK -5.5 44.5 7242727 U UK Q1 24–3
2023 · Week 9
 TENN -4 50.5 10405060 Q4 TENN Q4 33–27
2023 · Week 7
 UK -2.5 50.5 14314159 Q4 MIZ Q2 38–21
2023 · Week 5
 UK -1 44 16304447 Q4 UK Q1 14–33
2023 · Week 4
 UK -13 50 21344473 Q4 UK Q1 45–28
2023 · Week 3
 UK -25 48.5 7142438 U UK Q4
Late cover flip
 3–35
EKU @ UK
2023 · Week 2
 UK -35 62.5 7143145 U EKU Q1 17–28
2023 · Week 1
 UK -25 49 10305158 Q3 UK Q4
Late cover flip
 14–44
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 58% 7
Q2 8% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 33% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 91% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 67% and covered 67% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–32100% 2
4–72100% 2
8–101100% 1
11–141100% 1
18–2110% 0
22+30% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.