When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
10 games · 2023 · Kent State · pick one to list those games
60% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 10% of games.
All 10 games
2023 · Kent State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
NIU -20.5 | 45.5 | 10274464 | Q4 | KENT Q1 Lead lost |
37–27 |
2023 · Week 12 |
BALL -10.5 | 43.5 | 3163037 | U | BALL Q3 | 3–34 |
2023 · Week 11 |
BGSU -11.5 | 41.5 | 17344168 | Q4 | BGSU Q2 | 49–19 |
2023 · Week 10 |
AKR -3.5 | 40 | 13303758 | Q4 | AKR Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
27–31 |
2023 · Week 8 |
BUFF -6.5 | 44 | 13202330 | U | BUFF Q2 | 24–6 |
2023 · Week 7 |
EMU -7.5 | 39.5 | 7142842 | Q4 | EMU Q2 | 14–28 |
2023 · Week 5 |
M-OH -14 | 50 | 13162626 | U | M-OH Q3 | 23–3 |
2023 · Week 4 |
FRES -27 | 47.5 | 29466063 | Q3 | FRES Q3 | 10–53 |
 CCSU @  KENT2023 · Week 3 |
KENT -21.5 | 46.5 | 14213848 | Q4 | KENT Q3 Late over |
10–38 |
2023 · Week 2 |
ARK -38 | 57.5 | 10202734 | U | KENT Q1 | 6–28 |
NIU
BALL
BGSU
AKR
BUFF
EMU
M-OH
FRES
ARKWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 20% 2
Q2 30% 3
Q3 40% 4
Q4 10% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 70% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.