When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
10 games · 2023 · Florida · pick one to list those games
70% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 14% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 30% of games.
All 10 games
2023 · Florida · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
FSU -6.5 | 49 | 0192939 | U | FSU Q4 Late cover flip |
24–15 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MIZ -12.5 | 56.5 | 10204464 | Q4 | FLA Q1 | 31–33 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LSU -16.5 | 68 | 14316687 | Q4 | LSU Q4 Late cover flip |
35–52 |
2023 · Week 10 |
FLA -3 | 49 | 2834436675 | Q4 | ARK Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
39–36 |
2023 · Week 9 |
UGA -14 | 50 | 17334363 | Q4 | UGA Q2 | 43–20 |
2023 · Week 7 |
SC -1.5 | 49.5 | 24455180 | Q3 | FLA Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
41–39 |
2023 · Week 5 |
UK -1 | 44 | 16304447 | Q4 | UK Q1 | 14–33 |
2023 · Week 4 |
FLA -28 | 48.5 | 10232629 | U | CLT Q1 | 7–22 |
2023 · Week 3 |
TENN -5 | 56.5 | 13333645 | U | FLA Q1 | 16–29 |
 MCN @  FLA2023 · Week 2 |
FLA -48.5 | 55.5 | 13264256 | Q4 | MCN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
7–49 |
FSU
MIZ
LSU
ARK
UGA
SC
UK
CLT
TENNWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 5
Q2 20% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 30% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 89% and covered 56% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 50% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.