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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Central Michigan ✕

When did they go over?

10 games · 2023 · Central Michigan · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games10100%By halftime110%In Q3110%In Q4550%In OT00%Stayed under330%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands110%Over cashed00%Leader lost the game00%
70% went over. Of the 7 overs, 14% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 30% of games.

All 10 games

2023 · Central Michigan · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 13
 TOL -10 55 0102049 U TOL Q3 32–17
2023 · Week 12
 OHIO -10.5 49.5 10244554 Q4 OHIO Q3 20–34
2023 · Week 11
 WMU -3 59 7284966 Q4 WMU Q4 28–38
2023 · Week 10
 NIU -6.5 48 10275468 Q3 CMU Q1 31–37
2023 · Week 8
 CMU -5 42 10132741 U BALL Q1 17–24
2023 · Week 7
 CMU -10.5 43.5 362027 U AKR Q4 10–17
2023 · Week 5
 CMU -10 44.5 14244249 Q4 EMU Q1 23–26
2023 · Week 4
 USA -16.5 46.5 14273764 Q4 CMU Q1 34–30
2023 · Week 3
 ND -35 51 21354858 Q4 CMU Q1 17–41
UNH @ CMU
2023 · Week 2
 CMU -7 48.5 14496387 Q2 UNH Q4
Late cover flip
 42–45
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 5
Q2 0% 0
Q3 20% 2
Q4 30% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 89% and covered 56% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 60% of 10 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–31100% 1
4–72100% 2
8–101100% 1
11–141100% 1
15–1710% 0
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.