John M. Belk Arena · at Davidson · Conference game
Closing line
VCU -5.5✓ VCU covered by 0.5
VCU -5.5✓ VCU covered by 0.5Closing total148.5Under by 4.5
| VCU | This season | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| 13-6 | Record | 11-6 |
| 9-10 | ATS | 9-8 |
| 11-8 | O/U | 9-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VCU 78–71 DAV · ✓ VCU (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 37 | 38 | 75 |
| DAV | 31 | 38 | 69 |
1st half: VCU 37, DAV 31 (VCU by 6). The model had VCU by 4.0 and a total of 69.6 (actual 68).
Team stats
| VCU | DAV | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-51 55% | Field goals | 27-58 47% |
| 5-16 31% | 3-pointers | 8-22 36% |
| 14-20 70% | Free throws | 7-14 50% |
| 35 11 off | Rebounds | 24 10 off |
| 8 | Assists | 8 |
| 5 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| VCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazar Djokovic F | 35 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 7-10 | 2-2 |
| Barry Evans F | 30 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Brandon Jennings G | 29 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Nyk Lewis G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jadrian Tracey G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Michael Belle F | 33 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Terrence Hill Jr. G | 31 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-6 |
| Tyrell Ward G | 15 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-3 |
| Ahmad Nowell G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jordan Tillery, Keyshawn Mitchell, Jordann Dumont, Obinnaya Okafor, Christian Fermin
| DAV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Brown G | 31 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Josh Scovens F | 29 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 6-13 | 1-2 |
| Parker Friedrichsen G | 27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-3 |
| Sam Brown G | 24 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 8-14 | 2-5 |
| Ian Platteeuw C | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sean Logan F | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Nick Coval G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Roberts Blums G | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| JaQualon Roberts F | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Hunter Adam G | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Manie Joses F | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: John Nowland, RJ Greer, Phillip Kavu, Brock Matheny, Joe Hurlburt
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketVCU -5.5
ModelVCU -6.5
Model edgeVCU +1.0
W VCU covered
Total
Market148.5
Model148.6
Model edgeOver 0.1
L Under
Projected score
VCU 77.6 · DAV 71
VCU 75 · DAV 69
Win probability
VCU 72%
1st half
Spread
VCU -4.0
VCU -6.0
Total
69.6
68 points
Projected score
VCU 36.8 · DAV 32.8
VCU 37 · DAV 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVCU -4.5
1 → VCU
CloseVCU -5.5
1 pt toward VCU
Total
Open148.5
no move
Close148.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
VCU -238 · DAV +195
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VCU -4.5 · closed VCU -5.5 · moved 1 toward VCUmodel VCU -6.5
model VCU -6.5
Opened 148.5 · unchangedmodel 148.5 matches the line
model 148.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
| DAV | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
VCU 6–1 DAVVCU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · VCU has won the last 6 meetings · VCU 5-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2024-25 | DAV 56 @ VCU 80 | VCU -14.5 | VCU W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | VCU 63 @ DAV 58 | DAV +1.5 | VCU W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | DAV 53 vs VCU 71 | VCU -7.5 | VCU W |
| Jan 31, 2022-23 | VCU 61 @ DAV 59 | DAV +3.5 | DAV W |
| Jan 7, 2022-23 | DAV 72 @ VCU 89 | VCU -5.5 | VCU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
VCU
19 games played
Straight up
13-6
68% wins
Against the spread
9-10
47% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-8
58% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WAG | W 103-74 | -25.5 | W +3.5 | 133.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 7 | vs USU | L 77-80 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs SPU | W 78-61 | -20.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 17 | @ NCSU | L 79-85 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs COPP | W 101-58 | -32.5 | W +10.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 26 | vs USF | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 27 | vs VAN | L 74-89 | +6.5 | L −8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs VT | W 86-68 | -2.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 5 | vs SAM | W 83-57 | -19.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 10 | vs UNM | L 78-81 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 15 | vs NIA | W 84-58 | -30.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 18 | vs AMER | W 105-83 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 22 | vs RID | W 100-79 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 145.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 31 | vs SBU | W 89-82 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 3 | @ DUQ | W 93-80 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 7 | vs SLU | L 62-71 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 10 | @ GMU | L 80-86 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 14 | @ URI | W 84-75 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 19 | vs JOES | W 79-72 | -14.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWAG
WAGW 103-74
+3.5
7
vsUSU
USUL 77-80
−0.5
12
vsSPU
SPUW 78-61
−3.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 79-85
+5.5
22
vsCOPP
COPPW 101-58
+10.5
26
vsUSF
USFW 78-66
+10.5
27
vsVAN
VANL 74-89
−8.5
28
vsVT
VTW 86-68
+15.5
5
vsSAM
SAMW 83-57
+6.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 78-81
−11.5
15
vsNIA
NIAW 84-58
−4.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 105-83
+2.5
22
vsRID
RIDW 100-79
−9.5
31
vsSBU
SBUW 89-82
−2.5
3
@DUQ
DUQW 93-80
+7.5
7
vsSLU
SLUL 62-71
−10.5
10
@GMU
GMUL 80-86
−7.5
14
@URI
URIW 84-75
+5.5
19
vsJOES
JOESW 79-72
−7.5
covered 9didn’t cover 10avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWAG
WAGW 103-74
+43.5
7
vsUSU
USUL 77-80
−6.5
12
vsSPU
SPUW 78-61
−8.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 79-85
−0.5
22
vsCOPP
COPPW 101-58
+7.5
26
vsUSF
USFW 78-66
−28.5
27
vsVAN
VANL 74-89
+1.5
28
vsVT
VTW 86-68
+0.5
5
vsSAM
SAMW 83-57
−14.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 78-81
+1.5
15
vsNIA
NIAW 84-58
−1.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 105-83
+33.5
22
vsRID
RIDW 100-79
+33.5
31
vsSBU
SBUW 89-82
+13.5
3
@DUQ
DUQW 93-80
+7.5
7
vsSLU
SLUL 62-71
−38.5
10
@GMU
GMUL 80-86
+21.5
14
@URI
URIW 84-75
+11.5
19
vsJOES
JOESW 79-72
−0.5
over 11under 8avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Davidson
17 games played
Straight up
11-6
65% wins
Against the spread
9-8
53% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-8
53% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs WSU | W 85-69 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 11 | @ CLT | W 62-55 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 15 | vs BGSU | W 91-87 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 21 | vs BC | W 59-49 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 140.5 | U 108 |
| Nov 23 | vsUSU | L 60-94 | +9.5 | L −24.5 | 147.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 28 | vs NCAT | W 90-74 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 4 | vs CIT | W 79-63 | -18.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 7 | vs SMC | L 61-70 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 137.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 13 | vs MERC | W 80-47 | -11.5 | W +21.5 | 132.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 18 | vs TEM | L 63-68 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 22 | @ KU | L 61-90 | +14.5 | L −14.5 | 139.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 30 | vsDUQ | L 83-89 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 3 | @JOES | W 62-56 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 7 | @ LUC | W 79-64 | -1.5 | W +13.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | vsURI | L 45-70 | -2.5 | L −27.5 | 134.5 | U 115 |
| Jan 14 | @ GW | W 84-79 | +9.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 21 | vs FOR | W 68-63 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 135.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsWSU
WSUW 85-69
+11.5
11
@CLT
CLTW 62-55
+8.5
15
vsBGSU
BGSUW 91-87
−0.5
21
vsBC
BCW 59-49
+11.5
23
vsUSU
USUL 60-94
−24.5
28
vsNCAT
NCATW 90-74
+2.5
4
vsCIT
CITW 79-63
−2.5
7
vsSMC
SMCL 61-70
−0.5
13
vsMERC
MERCW 80-47
+21.5
18
vsTEM
TEML 63-68
−10.5
22
@KU
KUL 61-90
−14.5
30
vsDUQ
DUQL 83-89
−8.5
3
@JOES
JOESW 62-56
+4.5
7
@LUC
LUCW 79-64
+13.5
10
vsURI
URIL 45-70
−27.5
14
@GW
GWW 84-79
+14.5
21
vsFOR
FORW 68-63
+0.5
covered 9didn’t cover 8avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsWSU
WSUW 85-69
+0.5
11
@CLT
CLTW 62-55
−26.5
15
vsBGSU
BGSUW 91-87
+33.5
21
vsBC
BCW 59-49
−32.5
23
vsUSU
USUL 60-94
+6.5
28
vsNCAT
NCATW 90-74
+18.5
4
vsCIT
CITW 79-63
+4.5
7
vsSMC
SMCL 61-70
−6.5
13
vsMERC
MERCW 80-47
−5.5
18
vsTEM
TEML 63-68
−10.5
22
@KU
KUL 61-90
+11.5
30
vsDUQ
DUQL 83-89
+21.5
3
@JOES
JOESW 62-56
−21.5
7
@LUC
LUCW 79-64
+6.5
10
vsURI
URIL 45-70
−19.5
14
@GW
GWW 84-79
+12.5
21
vsFOR
FORW 68-63
−4.5
over 9under 8avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
VCU
13-6 overall · 4-2 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Saint Joseph's79–72
- W@ Rhode Island84–75
- L@ George Mason80–86
- Lvs Saint Louis62–71
- W@ Duquesne93–80
5 days since their last game.
Davidson
11-6 overall · 4-2 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Fordham68–63
- W@ G Washington84–79
- Lvs Rhode Island45–70
- W@ Loyola Chicago79–64
- W@ Saint Joseph's62–56
3 days since their last game.