Jackson State Tigers at Kennesaw State Owls: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETVyStar Arena · at Kennesaw St

#280JKSTJackson St73final

Final

#148KENNKennesaw St88▲ winner

Closing lineKENN -15.5✓ JKST covered by 0.5

Closing total157.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Jackson St and Kennesaw St
JKST	This season	KENN
1-6	Record	3-2
2-5	ATS	3-2
4-3	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JKST 76–89 KENN · ✓ KENN (87%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JKST	32	41	73
KENN	46	42	88

1st half: JKST 32, KENN 46 (KENN by 14). The model had KENN by 7.5 and a total of 76.9 (actual 78).

Team stats

JKST		KENN
20-58 34%	Field goals	27-68 40%
7-25 28%	3-pointers	9-37 24%
26-29 90%	Free throws	25-39 64%
36 11 off	Rebounds	52 25 off
8	Assists	14
7	Steals	6
4	Blocks	9
14	Turnovers	9
26	Fouls	19
16	Points in paint	36
9	Fast-break points	9

Players

JKST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daeshun Ruffin G	34	28	1	5	7-18	2-5
Jayme Mitchell Jr. G	31	8	7	0	3-10	1-6
Dorian McMillian G	23	6	5	0	2-6	0-3
Devin Ree F	22	1	1	1	0-3	0-2
Dionjahe Thomas F	12	2	3	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Mike Williams G	26	12	5	1	2-8	0-2
Tamarion Hoover G	20	9	5	0	3-6	3-6
Delyle Williams G	16	5	2	1	1-1	1-1
Deyan Kolev F	8	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Ebo Wilson C	8	0	2	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Cael Jones, Kobe Butler, Kedrick Simmons, Raevon Thomas, Jalen Tatum, Keiveon Hunt

KENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Simeon Cottle G	34	28	2	3	9-19	4-11
Kaden Rickard G	26	11	10	2	0-4	0-4
Ramone Seals F	25	13	7	1	5-9	2-4
Braedan Lue F	20	4	4	1	2-6	0-2
Amir Taylor F	14	1	1	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
RJ Johnson G	25	10	2	3	3-6	2-4
Frankquon Sherman F	23	16	12	1	6-9	0-2
Darius Washington III G	23	5	7	1	2-9	1-4
Trey Simpson F	10	0	3	1	0-5	0-5

Did not play: Brendan Tousignaut, Nigel Thomas, Dozie Onyirimba, Jamil Miller, Jaden Harris, Davin Cosby Jr., Perry Smith Jr., Eric Holland, Charles Stone, Chase Clemmons

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	KENN -15.5	KENN -12.7	JKST +2.8	W JKST covered
Total	157.5	164.4	Over 6.9	W Over
Projected score	—	JKST 75.8 · KENN 88.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KENN -7.5	KENN -14.0
1H total	76.9	78
1H projected score	JKST 34.7 · KENN 42.2	JKST 32 · KENN 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JKST LLLLW	2-5	29%	2-4	2-5
KENN WLWLW	3-2	60%	0-1	2-1

Venue/role: JKST away, as underdog; KENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JKST UOOUU	4-3	57%	1-6
KENN UOOOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JKSTlast 7	1-6 14%	2-5 29%	4-3 57%
KENNlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jackson St

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −10.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −4.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

L W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 21	@ARK	L 61-115	+29.5	L −24.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 23	vsWIN	L 62-80	+10.5	L −7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 28	@UL	W 51-45	+5.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 96

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

ARK

L 61-115

−24.5

WIN

L 62-80

−7.5

W 51-45

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −10.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

ARK

L 61-115

+16.5

WIN

L 62-80

−21.5

W 51-45

−40.5

over 4under 3avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kennesaw St

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +15.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@FAMU	W 92-72	-11.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 16	vsUSF	L 89-108	+7.5	L −11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 24	vsRICE	W 89-84	-4.5	W +0.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsORU	L 83-91	-8.5	L −16.5	166.5	O 174
Nov 26	@FGCU	W 102-100	+1.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

+8.5

USF

L 89-108

−11.5

RICE

W 89-84

+0.5

ORU

L 83-91

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

−2.5

USF

L 89-108

+19.5

RICE

W 89-84

+13.5

ORU

L 83-91

+7.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+41.5

over 4under 1avg +15.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jackson St @ Kennesaw St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Jackson St

Kennesaw St

Jackson St

Kennesaw St