XFINITY Center · at Maryland
Closing line
MD -22.5✓ MD covered by 3.5
MD -22.5✓ MD covered by 3.5Closing total143.5Over by 8.5
 WAG | This season | MD |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| 5-1 | ATS | 2-6 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 6-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: WAG 65–84 MD · ✓ MD (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAG | 26 | 37 | 63 |
| MD | 33 | 56 | 89 |
1st half: WAG 26, MD 33 (MD by 7). The model had MD by 11.7 and a total of 69.6 (actual 59).
Team stats
| WAG | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-57 37% | Field goals | 26-64 41% |
| 6-23 26% | 3-pointers | 5-20 25% |
| 15-18 83% | Free throws | 32-45 71% |
| 37 9 off | Rebounds | 48 20 off |
| 10 | Assists | 12 |
| 2 | Steals | 10 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 30 | Fouls | 18 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| WAG | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Jones G | 31 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 4-11 | 1-1 |
| Eddie Placer G | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-4 |
| Jaden Baker G | 29 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4-14 | 3-10 |
| Sam Smith F | 23 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Bryan Akanmu F | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| John Awoke G | 22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bin Basil F | 19 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Michael Cooper G | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Zavier Fitch F | 15 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Brown G | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Makhai Anderson G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Huascar Cuevas, Travis Gray
| MD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharrel Payne F | 29 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 8-11 | 0-0 |
| Myles Rice G | 26 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Darius Adams G | 26 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 3-12 | 2-4 |
| Solomon Washington F | 25 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Saunders F | 23 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| David Coit G | 23 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Andre Mills G | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0-9 | 0-5 |
| Isaiah Watts G | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Collin Metcalf C | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Guillermo Del Pino G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Aleks Alston F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rakease Passmore, Nick Blake, Jaziah Harper, Lukas Sotell, George Turkson Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMD -22.5
ModelMD -19.6
Model edgeWAG +2.9
L MD covered
Total
Market143.5
Model148.6
Model edgeOver 5.1
W Over
Projected score
WAG 64.5 · MD 84.1
WAG 63 · MD 89
Win probability
MD 96%
1st half
Spread
MD -11.7
MD -7.0
Total
69.6
59 points
Projected score
WAG 29 · MD 40.6
WAG 26 · MD 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMD -22.5
no move
CloseMD -22.5
No change since the open
Total
Open141.5
▲ 2
Close143.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
WAG +1700 · MD -4500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MD -22.5 · unchangedmodel MD -19.5
model MD -19.5
Opened 141.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 2 upmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAGlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 5-1 83% | 4-2 67% |
| MDlast 8 | 5-3 63% | 2-6 25% | 6-2 75% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Wagner
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +6.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg +18.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
VCU
VCUL 74-103
−3.5
7
@
HALL
HALLL 61-68
+14.5
11
@
FOR
FORL 61-63
+10.5
16
@
UMBC
UMBCL 70-71
+5.5
22
@
GTWN
GTWNL 75-92
+8.5
26
@
MAN
MANW 103-101
+4.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@VCU
VCUL 74-103
+43.5
7
@HALL
HALLL 61-68
−5.5
11
@FOR
FORL 61-63
−15.5
16
@UMBC
UMBCL 70-71
+0.5
22
@GTWN
GTWNL 75-92
+26.5
26
@MAN
MANW 103-101
+59.5
over 4under 2avg +18.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Maryland
8 games played
Straight up
5-3
63% wins
Against the spread
2-6
25% covers · avg −8.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-2
75% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COPP | W 83-61 | -28.5 | L −6.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 7 | vsGTWN | L 60-70 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs ALCN | W 84-64 | -29.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 15 | @ MARQ | W 89-82 | +8.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | vs MSM | W 95-90 | -17.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 24 | vs UNLV | W 74-67 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 164.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 25 | vs GONZ | L 61-100 | +14.5 | L −24.5 | 157.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs ALA | L 72-105 | +14.5 | L −18.5 | 166.5 | O 177 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOPP
COPPW 83-61
−6.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNL 60-70
−14.5
11
vsALCN
ALCNW 84-64
−9.5
15
@MARQ
MARQW 89-82
+15.5
19
vsMSM
MSMW 95-90
−12.5
24
vsUNLV
UNLVW 74-67
+4.5
25
vsGONZ
GONZL 61-100
−24.5
26
vsALA
ALAL 72-105
−18.5
covered 2didn’t cover 6avg −8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOPP
COPPW 83-61
+4.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNL 60-70
−14.5
11
vsALCN
ALCNW 84-64
+1.5
15
@MARQ
MARQW 89-82
+24.5
19
vsMSM
MSMW 95-90
+39.5
24
vsUNLV
UNLVW 74-67
−23.5
25
vsGONZ
GONZL 61-100
+3.5
26
vsALA
ALAL 72-105
+10.5
over 6under 2avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Wagner
1-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Manhattan103–101
- L@ Georgetown75–92
- L@ UMBC70–71
- L@ Fordham61–63
- L@ Seton Hall61–68
6 days since their last game.
Maryland
5-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Alabama72–105
- Lvs Gonzaga61–100
- Wvs UNLV74–67
- Wvs Mount St Marys95–90
- W@ Marquette89–82
6 days since their last game.