Simmons Bank Arena · at Arkansas
Closing line
ARK -19.5✓ ARK covered by 4.5
ARK -19.5✓ ARK covered by 4.5Closing total161.5Under by 21.5
 FRES | This season | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 6-2 |
| 5-3 | ATS | 5-3 |
| 4-4 | O/U | 3-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FRES 68–90 ARK · ✓ ARK (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 24 | 34 | 58 |
| ARK | 34 | 48 | 82 |
1st half: FRES 24, ARK 34 (ARK by 10). The model had ARK by 13.3 and a total of 73.9 (actual 58).
Team stats
| FRES | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-63 35% | Field goals | 30-66 45% |
| 4-26 15% | 3-pointers | 11-30 37% |
| 10-13 77% | Free throws | 11-17 65% |
| 41 12 off | Rebounds | 39 10 off |
| 11 | Assists | 18 |
| 4 | Steals | 11 |
| 1 | Blocks | 5 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 26 |
Players
| FRES | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Heidbreder G | 34 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1-10 | 0-5 |
| Wilson Jacques C | 32 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 5-9 | 1-1 |
| Zaon Collins G | 30 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-14 | 0-5 |
| DeShawn Gory F | 19 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Cameron Faas G | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jac Mani F | 17 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| David Douglas Jr. G | 12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bastien Rieber G | 12 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Makhan Diouf F | 11 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Gasper Kocevar C | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| DJ Stickman G | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Matteo Porto G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nathan Zulemie, Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano, Troy Jenkins
| ARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. G | 34 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 7-12 | 3-6 |
| DJ Wagner G | 30 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 4-10 | 2-8 |
| Trevon Brazile F | 29 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-2 |
| Karter Knox G | 25 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4-9 | 3-5 |
| Nick Pringle F | 23 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Meleek Thomas G | 21 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 4-12 | 3-7 |
| Malique Ewin F | 16 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Billy Richmond III G | 12 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Sealy F | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Elmir Dzafic, Karim Rtail, Paulo Semedo, Ayden Kelley, Jaden Karuletwa, Amere Brown
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARK -19.5
ModelARK -22.2
Model edgeARK +2.7
W ARK covered
Total
Market161.5
Model158.0
Model edgeUnder 3.5
W Under
Projected score
FRES 67.9 · ARK 90.1
FRES 58 · ARK 82
Win probability
ARK 97%
1st half
Spread
ARK -13.3
ARK -10.0
Total
73.9
58 points
Projected score
FRES 30.3 · ARK 43.6
FRES 24 · ARK 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARK -18.5
1 → ARK
CloseARK -19.5
1 pt toward ARK
Total
Open154.5
▲ 7
Close161.5
Up 7 since the open
Moneyline
FRES +1300 · ARK -2800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARK -18.5 · closed ARK -19.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel ARK -22
model ARK -22
Opened 154.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 7 upmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRESlast 8 | 5-3 63% | 5-3 63% | 4-4 50% |
| ARKlast 8 | 6-2 75% | 5-3 63% | 3-5 38% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Fresno St
8 games played
Straight up
5-3
63% wins
Against the spread
5-3
63% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-4
50% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UPST | L 66-67 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 8 | vs LBSU | W 82-62 | -6.5 | W +13.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 12 | vs UCSD | L 73-78 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs UVU | W 75-74 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 18 | vs SFA | W 80-78 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 21 | vs NOLA | W 85-76 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs PEPP | W 76-53 | -2.5 | W +20.5 | 150.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 30 | vs CSUB | L 71-76 | -10.5 | L −15.5 | 150.5 | U 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUPST
UPSTL 66-67
−10.5
8
vsLBSU
LBSUW 82-62
+13.5
12
vsUCSD
UCSDL 73-78
−6.5
15
vsUVU
UVUW 75-74
+5.5
18
vsSFA
SFAW 80-78
+4.5
21
vsNOLA
NOLAW 85-76
+2.5
26
vsPEPP
PEPPW 76-53
+20.5
30
vsCSUB
CSUBL 71-76
−15.5
covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUPST
UPSTL 66-67
−31.5
8
vsLBSU
LBSUW 82-62
+1.5
12
vsUCSD
UCSDL 73-78
+2.5
15
vsUVU
UVUW 75-74
−7.5
18
vsSFA
SFAW 80-78
+11.5
21
vsNOLA
NOLAW 85-76
+6.5
26
vsPEPP
PEPPW 76-53
−21.5
30
vsCSUB
CSUBL 71-76
−3.5
over 4under 4avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas
8 games played
Straight up
6-2
75% wins
Against the spread
5-3
63% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-5
38% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SOU | W 109-77 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 8 | @ MSU | L 66-69 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | vs CARK | W 93-56 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAM | W 79-75 | -24.5 | L −20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs WIN | W 84-83 | -23.5 | L −22.5 | 168.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs JKST | W 115-61 | -29.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 27 | vs DUKE | L 71-80 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | vs LOU | W 89-80 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+5.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−0.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
+1.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−20.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−22.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+24.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
+3.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+35.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−20.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
−9.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−4.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−1.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+16.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
−8.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+2.5
over 3under 5avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Fresno St
5-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Bakersfield71–76
- Wvs Pepperdine76–53
- Wvs LSU N Orleans85–76
- Wvs SF Austin80–78
- Wvs Utah Valley75–74
6 days since their last game.
Arkansas
6-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Louisville89–80
- Lvs Duke71–80
- Wvs Jackson St115–61
- Wvs Winthrop84–83
- Wvs Samford79–75
3 days since their last game.