Bud Walton Arena · at Arkansas
Closing line
ARK -23.5✓ ARK covered by 5.5
ARK -23.5✓ ARK covered by 5.5Closing total159.5Over by 17.5
 JMU | This season | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | Record | 9-3 |
| 3-9 | ATS | 8-4 |
| 8-4 | O/U | 6-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: JMU 69–92 ARK · ✓ ARK (98%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 28 | 46 | 74 |
| ARK | 48 | 55 | 103 |
1st half: JMU 28, ARK 48 (ARK by 20). The model had ARK by 14.0 and a total of 75.3 (actual 76).
Team stats
| JMU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-58 41% | Field goals | 34-62 55% |
| 12-32 38% | 3-pointers | 15-28 54% |
| 14-19 74% | Free throws | 20-31 65% |
| 30 12 off | Rebounds | 37 12 off |
| 13 | Assists | 24 |
| 4 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 6 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 31 |
Players
| JMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Douglas G | 36 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 7-17 | 4-10 |
| Justin McBride F | 35 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-4 |
| Eddie Ricks III F | 25 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Cliff Davis G | 23 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Gabe Newhof F | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Preston Fowler F | 19 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Paul Jones III G | 18 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Christian Brown F | 18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Wilborn F | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Justin Taylor G | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Paul Lewis G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kose Egbule G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Chance Lundy, Josh Stephen, Ike Cornish
| ARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. G | 30 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 7-12 | 3-6 |
| Trevon Brazile F | 27 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| DJ Wagner G | 26 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 4-8 | 4-5 |
| Nick Pringle F | 19 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Karter Knox G | 18 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Meleek Thomas G | 27 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 8-16 | 6-10 |
| Billy Richmond III G | 21 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4-6 | 0-2 |
| Malique Ewin F | 19 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Sealy F | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Elmir Dzafic C | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Karuletwa G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Amere Brown G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ayden Kelley G | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Paulo Semedo, Karim Rtail
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARK -23.5
ModelARK -23.6
Model edgeARK +0.1
W ARK covered
Total
Market159.5
Model161.0
Model edgeOver 1.5
W Over
Projected score
JMU 68.7 · ARK 92.3
JMU 74 · ARK 103
Win probability
ARK 98%
1st half
Spread
ARK -14.0
ARK -20.0
Total
75.3
76 points
Projected score
JMU 30.7 · ARK 44.7
JMU 28 · ARK 48
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARK -22.5
1 → ARK
CloseARK -23.5
1 pt toward ARK
Total
Open159.5
no move
Close159.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
JMU +2500 · ARK -9000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARK -22.5 · closed ARK -23.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel ARK -23.5 matches the line
model ARK -23.5 = line ✓
Opened 159.5 · unchangedmodel 161
model 161
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| ARK | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
James Madison
12 games played
Straight up
6-6
50% wins
Against the spread
3-9
25% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-4
67% overs · avg +6.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ AKR | L 71-85 | +8.5 | L −5.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 9 | vs COPP | W 84-70 | -18.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 12 | @ LONG | L 72-82 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 15 | @ LIU | L 79-88 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 18 | vs TOW | W 81-75 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | @ FIU | W 80-72 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs OMA | W 88-77 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 29 | @ GMU | L 66-82 | +12.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 3 | vs NCCU | W 67-62 | -14.5 | L −9.5 | 143.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 6 | vs NORF | W 68-67 | -10.5 | L −9.5 | 138.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 17 | @ ODU | L 68-77 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | @ GASO | L 92-96 | +2.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 188 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@AKR
AKRL 71-85
−5.5
9
vsCOPP
COPPW 84-70
−4.5
12
@LONG
LONGL 72-82
−11.5
15
@LIU
LIUL 79-88
−5.5
18
vsTOW
TOWW 81-75
+9.5
24
@FIU
FIUW 80-72
+10.5
25
vsOMA
OMAW 88-77
+9.5
29
@GMU
GMUL 66-82
−3.5
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 67-62
−9.5
6
vsNORF
NORFW 68-67
−9.5
17
@ODU
ODUL 68-77
−11.5
20
@GASO
GASOL 92-96
−1.5
covered 3didn’t cover 9avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@AKR
AKRL 71-85
+2.5
9
vsCOPP
COPPW 84-70
+12.5
12
@LONG
LONGL 72-82
+4.5
15
@LIU
LIUL 79-88
+19.5
18
vsTOW
TOWW 81-75
+15.5
24
@FIU
FIUW 80-72
−3.5
25
vsOMA
OMAW 88-77
+12.5
29
@GMU
GMUL 66-82
+6.5
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 67-62
−14.5
6
vsNORF
NORFW 68-67
−3.5
17
@ODU
ODUL 68-77
−3.5
20
@GASO
GASOL 92-96
+34.5
over 8under 4avg +6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas
12 games played
Straight up
9-3
75% wins
Against the spread
8-4
67% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-6
50% overs · avg +5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SOU | W 109-77 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 8 | @ MSU | L 66-69 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | vs CARK | W 93-56 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAM | W 79-75 | -24.5 | L −20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs WIN | W 84-83 | -23.5 | L −22.5 | 168.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs JKST | W 115-61 | -29.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 27 | vs DUKE | L 71-80 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | vs LOU | W 89-80 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs FRES | W 82-58 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs TTU | W 93-86 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 16 | vs QUC | W 108-80 | -23.5 | W +4.5 | 169.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | vs HOU | L 85-94 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+5.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−0.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
+1.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−20.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−22.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+24.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
+3.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+10.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
+4.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+9.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+4.5
20
vsHOU
HOUL 85-94
−3.5
covered 8didn’t cover 4avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+35.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−20.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
−9.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−4.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−1.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+16.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
−8.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+2.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
−21.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+23.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+18.5
20
vsHOU
HOUL 85-94
+32.5
over 6under 6avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
James Madison
6-6 overall · 0-2 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ GA Southern92–96
- L@ Old Dominion68–77
- Wvs Norfolk St68–67
- Wvs NC Central67–62
- L@ George Mason66–82
A week or more of rest.
Arkansas
9-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Houston85–94
- Wvs Queens University Royals108–80
- Wvs Texas Tech93–86
- Wvs Fresno St82–58
- Wvs Louisville89–80
A week or more of rest.