Little Rock Trojans at Southern Illinois Salukis: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 7:00 PM ETBanterra Center · at S Illinois

Final

#195SIUS Illinois74▲ winner

Closing lineSIU -13.5✓ LR covered by 4.5

Closing total141.5Under by 2.5

Season records: Little Rock and S Illinois
LR	This season	SIU
1-4	Record	2-4
1-4	ATS	3-3
2-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LR 66–80 SIU · ✓ SIU (90%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LR	33	32	65
SIU	29	45	74

1st half: LR 33, SIU 29 (LR by 4). The model had SIU by 8.5 and a total of 68.4 (actual 62).

Team stats

LR		SIU
27-52 52%	Field goals	28-47 60%
6-23 26%	3-pointers	6-16 38%
5-11 45%	Free throws	12-20 60%
24 9 off	Rebounds	28 8 off
19	Assists	14
12	Steals	8
4	Blocks	2
16	Turnovers	15
19	Fouls	13
34	Points in paint	34
16	Fast-break points	9

Players

LR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Johnathan Lawson G	40	16	1	10	6-15	4-12
Caleb Pennyfeather F	37	8	4	1	4-5	0-0
Braxton Bayless G	36	7	4	2	3-10	1-5
Kachi Nzeh F	28	17	2	2	6-9	1-3
Tuongthach Gatkek F	26	7	5	2	3-3	0-0
Bench
Truman Claytor IV F	16	6	1	2	3-6	0-3
Cameron Wallace F	16	4	3	0	2-4	0-0
Tracy Steele Jr. G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Khasen Robinson, Christian Hughes, Travonne Jackson, Joseph Thomas, Kellen Robinson, Terrion Burgess, KK Robinson

SIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Drew Steffe G	32	21	0	2	8-12	5-9
Damien Mayo Jr. G	24	2	3	3	1-3	0-1
Rolyns Aligbe F	24	9	7	1	4-4	0-0
Quel'Ron House G	21	8	3	1	4-7	0-1
Prince Aligbe F	18	5	2	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Jalen Haynes G	27	10	3	4	4-7	1-3
Davion Sykes G	22	8	3	2	2-5	0-0
Isaiah Stafford G	16	7	2	0	2-4	0-2
Jorge Moreno F	16	4	4	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Luke Walsh, Daniel Pauliukonis, Caden Hawkins, Max Pikaar, Jaheem Webber

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SIU -13.5	SIU -14.4	SIU +0.9	L LR covered
Total	141.5	146.0	Over 4.5	L Under
Projected score	—	LR 65.8 · SIU 80.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SIU -8.5	LR -4.0
1H total	68.4	62
1H projected score	LR 29.9 · SIU 38.4	LR 33 · SIU 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LR LLWLL	1-4	20%	1-4	1-4
SIU WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: LR away, as underdog; SIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LR OUUOU	2-3	40%	1-4
SIU OOUUU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LRlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%
SIUlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LR 1–1 SIUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · LR 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 7, 2022-23	LR 63 @ SIU 94	SIU -15	SIU W
Nov 9, 2021-22	SIU 66 @ LR 69	LR +6.5	LR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Little Rock

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@MILW	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@MARQ	L 49-89	+21.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BALL	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MUR	L 68-89	+13.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 21	@TXST	L 56-65	+5.5	L −3.5	131.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

−16.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−18.5

BALL

W 68-62

+8.5

MUR

L 68-89

−7.5

TXST

L 56-65

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

+7.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−17.5

BALL

W 68-62

−16.5

MUR

L 68-89

+3.5

TXST

L 56-65

−10.5

over 2under 3avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

S Illinois

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsKC	W 101-78	-12.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 12	@NEV	L 81-86	+11.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 17	@NDSU	L 85-92	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 23	vsDEL	W 79-59	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsUAB	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 26	@MEM	L 58-74	+10.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 101-78

+10.5

NEV

L 81-86

+6.5

NDSU

L 85-92

−5.5

DEL

W 79-59

+11.5

UAB

L 73-81

−5.5

MEM

L 58-74

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 101-78

+37.5

NEV

L 81-86

+14.5

NDSU

L 85-92

+23.5

DEL

W 79-59

−15.5

UAB

L 73-81

−7.5

MEM

L 58-74

−24.5

over 3under 3avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Little Rock @ S Illinois

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Little Rock

S Illinois

Little Rock

S Illinois