MGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
HOU -2.5✓ TENN covered by 5.5
HOU -2.5✓ TENN covered by 5.5Closing total136.5Over by 12.5
 TENN | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 6-0 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TENN 65–70 HOU · ✗ HOU (66%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 35 | 41 | 76 |
| HOU | 39 | 34 | 73 |
1st half: TENN 35, HOU 39 (HOU by 4). The model had HOU by 2.7 and a total of 63.4 (actual 74).
Team stats
| TENN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-51 47% | Field goals | 28-61 46% |
| 5-17 29% | 3-pointers | 9-24 38% |
| 23-29 79% | Free throws | 8-11 73% |
| 32 13 off | Rebounds | 33 15 off |
| 15 | Assists | 16 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 38 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 5-16 | 3-9 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 32 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Felix Okpara F | 31 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Nate Ament F | 24 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 1-8 | 0-4 |
| Cade Phillips F | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Carey F | 22 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6-11 | 0-1 |
| Amaree Abram G | 19 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Ethan Burg G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: DeWayne Brown II, Grant Hurst, Amari Evans, Clarence Massamba, Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan, Troy Henderson
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Uzan G | 35 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 7-15 | 1-6 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. F | 33 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 2-8 | 0-3 |
| Joseph Tugler F | 33 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 10-15 | 3-4 |
| Emanuel Sharp G | 21 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isiah Harwell G | 20 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Chase McCarty F | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Mercy Miller G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Kalifa Sakho F | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ramon Walker Jr. G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cedric Lath, Bryce Jackson, Jacob McFarland, Kordel Jefferson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -2.5
ModelHOU -4.8
Model edgeHOU +2.3
L TENN covered
Total
Market136.5
Model135.3
Model edgeUnder 1.2
L Over
Projected score
TENN 65.3 · HOU 70
TENN 76 · HOU 73
Win probability
HOU 66%
1st half
Spread
HOU -2.7
HOU -4.0
Total
63.4
74 points
Projected score
TENN 30.4 · HOU 33.1
TENN 35 · HOU 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -2.5
no move
CloseHOU -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open134.5
▲ 2
Close136.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
TENN +142 · HOU -170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -2.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -5
model HOU -5
Opened 134.5 · closed 136.5 · moved 2 upmodel 135.5
model 135.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENNlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% |
| HOUlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TENN 0–1 HOUHOU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TENN 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024-25 | TENN 50 vs HOU 69 | HOU -2.5 | HOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
MER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vs
NKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vs
UNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vs
RICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vs
TNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vs
RUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
over 4under 2avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Houston
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
LEH
LEHW 75-57
−18.5
8
vs
TOW
TOWW 65-48
−9.5
12
vs
OAK
OAKW 78-45
+2.5
16
vs
AUB
AUBW 73-72
−6.5
20
vs
RID
RIDW 91-45
+5.5
24
vs
SYR
SYRW 78-74
−10.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−4.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−17.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
−15.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
+4.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+1.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
+11.5
over 3under 3avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee
6-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Rutgers85–60
- Wvs Tennessee St89–60
- Wvs Rice91–66
- Wvs North Florida99–66
- Wvs N Kentucky95–56
1 day since their last game.
Houston
6-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Syracuse78–74
- Wvs Rider91–45
- Wvs Auburn73–72
- Wvs Oakland78–45
- Wvs Towson65–48
1 day since their last game.