Williams Arena at Minges Coliseum · at East Carolina
Closing line
ECU -1.5✓ ECU covered by 1.5
ECU -1.5✓ ECU covered by 1.5Closing total146.5Under by 3.5
 BUF | This season | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | Record | 2-7 |
| 7-2 | ATS | 1-8 |
| 5-4 | O/U | 4-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 75–75 ECU · ✓ ECU (53%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 47 | 23 | 70 |
| ECU | 28 | 45 | 73 |
1st half: BUF 47, ECU 28 (BUF by 19). The model had ECU by 0.4 and a total of 70.2 (actual 75).
Team stats
| BUF | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-59 39% | Field goals | 23-63 37% |
| 8-26 31% | 3-pointers | 4-20 20% |
| 16-21 76% | Free throws | 23-30 77% |
| 40 14 off | Rebounds | 40 15 off |
| 8 | Assists | 9 |
| 5 | Steals | 12 |
| 1 | Blocks | 4 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 22 | Fouls | 15 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Freitag G | 39 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 8-19 | 5-10 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 39 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 8-15 | 3-8 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 26 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Tim Oboh F | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ezra McKenna F | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 25 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 20 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Kyle Jones, Matas Buteliauskas, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic
| ECU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Riley G | 39 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 10-22 | 0-2 |
| Tybo Bailey G | 32 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Corey Caulker G | 31 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Giovanni Emejuru C | 28 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 5-10 | 0-0 |
| Luke Davis F | 23 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaiah Mbeng G | 29 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| Patrick D'Arcy G | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Reid Cason F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Daithi Quinn, Vito Perkovic, Eli DeLaurier, Jake Baker, Ladontae Felton, Grant Smith, Trevion LaBeaux, Jayshayne Woodard
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketECU -1.5
ModelECU -0.8
Model edgeBUF +0.7
L ECU covered
Total
Market146.5
Model150.0
Model edgeOver 3.5
L Under
Projected score
BUF 74.6 · ECU 75.4
BUF 70 · ECU 73
Win probability
ECU 53%
1st half
Spread
ECU -0.4
BUF -19.0
Total
70.2
75 points
Projected score
BUF 34.9 · ECU 35.3
BUF 47 · ECU 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenECU -1.5
no move
CloseECU -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open145.5
▲ 1
Close146.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
BUF +102 · ECU -122
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ECU -1.5 · unchangedmodel ECU -1
model ECU -1
Opened 145.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 1 upmodel 150
model 150
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUFlast 9 | 8-1 89% | 7-2 78% | 5-4 56% |
| ECUlast 9 | 2-7 22% | 1-8 11% | 4-5 44% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
9 games played
Straight up
8-1
89% wins
Against the spread
7-2
78% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-4
56% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 2avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
over 5under 4avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
East Carolina
9 games played
Straight up
2-7
22% wins
Against the spread
1-8
11% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs GASO | W 92-89 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | O 181 |
| Nov 8 | @ RICH | L 72-87 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 18 | @ UNCW | L 60-85 | +6.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 21 | vs CHSO | L 65-77 | -13.5 | L −25.5 | 157.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 25 | vs MSU | L 56-89 | +19.5 | L −13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vsSBU | L 58-67 | +10.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 2 | vs UMES | W 68-56 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 127.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCG | L 78-82 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 139.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 11 | vs APP | L 54-67 | -4.5 | L −17.5 | 130.5 | U 121 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsGASO
GASOW 92-89
−2.5
8
@RICH
RICHL 72-87
−9.5
18
@UNCW
UNCWL 60-85
−18.5
21
vsCHSO
CHSOL 65-77
−25.5
25
vsMSU
MSUL 56-89
−13.5
27
vsSBU
SBUL 58-67
+1.5
2
vsUMES
UMESW 68-56
−0.5
6
vsUNCG
UNCGL 78-82
−11.5
11
vsAPP
APPL 54-67
−17.5
covered 1didn’t cover 8avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsGASO
GASOW 92-89
+29.5
8
@RICH
RICHL 72-87
+15.5
18
@UNCW
UNCWL 60-85
−0.5
21
vsCHSO
CHSOL 65-77
−15.5
25
vsMSU
MSUL 56-89
+4.5
27
vsSBU
SBUL 58-67
−19.5
2
vsUMES
UMESW 68-56
−3.5
6
vsUNCG
UNCGL 78-82
+20.5
11
vsAPP
APPL 54-67
−9.5
over 4under 5avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
8-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UMBC83–79
- Lvs St Bonaventure69–77
- W@ Canisius71–53
- Wvs Bucknell73–71
- Wvs VMI78–70
5 days since their last game.
East Carolina
2-7 overall · 0-0 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs App State54–67
- Lvs UNC Greensboro78–82
- Wvs MD Eastern68–56
- Lvs St Bonaventure58–67
- Lvs Michigan St56–89
3 days since their last game.