Lee's Family Forum · Neutral site
Closing line
AKR -4.5✓ MUR covered by 19.5
AKR -4.5✓ MUR covered by 19.5Closing total168.5Over by 46.5
 MUR | This season | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | Record | 7-2 |
| 6-4 | ATS | 7-2 |
| 7-3 | O/U | 6-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MUR 83–89 AKR · ✗ AKR (69%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | 47 | 68 | 115 |
| AKR | 42 | 58 | 100 |
1st half: MUR 47, AKR 42 (MUR by 5). The model had AKR by 3.3 and a total of 80.4 (actual 89).
Team stats
| MUR | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 40-69 58% | Field goals | 37-76 49% |
| 18-32 56% | 3-pointers | 7-18 39% |
| 17-25 68% | Free throws | 19-25 76% |
| 42 15 off | Rebounds | 34 15 off |
| 23 | Assists | 19 |
| 1 | Steals | 6 |
| 7 | Blocks | 3 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 27 | Fouls | 25 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 52 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| MUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Traynor F | 30 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 6-8 | 3-4 |
| Layne Taylor G | 28 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 7-11 | 6-9 |
| Javon Jackson G | 24 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 9-13 | 1-3 |
| Fredrick King C | 23 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Mason Miller F | 19 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brayden Shorter G | 20 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-8 |
| Mathis Courbon G | 17 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| KJ Tenner G | 12 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Roman Domon G | 12 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 4-7 | 4-4 |
| Dylan Anderson F | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Brock Vice F | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Dillon Butler, Lachlan Crate, Tristian Ford, Ben Shtolzberg
| AKR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Mahaffey F | 33 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 2-9 | 0-0 |
| Tavari Johnson G | 30 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 12-18 | 1-2 |
| Amani Lyles F | 24 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6-12 | 4-8 |
| Eric Mahaffey G | 22 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| Shammah Scott G | 21 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3-10 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sharron Young G | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 6-8 | 1-2 |
| Bowen Hardman G | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Chabi Barre F | 15 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Marvin Musiime-Kamali F | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Zach Halligan F | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tai Perkins, Josh Henderson, Ognjen Stankovic, Conner Groce, Rich Brisco, Cody Head
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketAKR -4.5
ModelAKR -5.7
Model edgeAKR +1.2
L MUR covered
Total
Market168.5
Model172.0
Model edgeOver 3.5
W Over
Projected score
MUR 83.1 · AKR 88.9
MUR 115 · AKR 100
Win probability
AKR 69%
1st half
Spread
AKR -3.3
MUR -5.0
Total
80.4
89 points
Projected score
MUR 38.5 · AKR 41.9
MUR 47 · AKR 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAKR -6.5
2 → MUR
CloseAKR -4.5
2 pts toward MUR
Total
Open174.5
▼ 6
Close168.5
Down 6 since the open
Moneyline
MUR +170 · AKR -205
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AKR -6.5 · closed AKR -4.5 · moved 2 toward MURmodel AKR -5.5
model AKR -5.5
Opened 174.5 · closed 168.5 · moved 6 downmodel 172
model 172
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
| AKRlast 9 | 7-2 78% | 7-2 78% | 6-3 67% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Murray St
10 games played
Straight up
7-3
70% wins
Against the spread
6-4
60% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-3
70% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OMA | W 85-77 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 7 | vs MVSU | W 108-60 | -38.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMU | L 91-102 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 164.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 15 | vs NICH | W 99-79 | -14.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 18 | vs LR | W 89-68 | -13.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 23 | vs MTSU | L 87-90 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | vs MCN | L 60-73 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 25 | vs GW | W 96-95 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 167.5 | O 191 |
| Dec 2 | vs MORE | W 84-52 | -16.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs BELL | W 81-68 | -16.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOMA
OMAW 85-77
+2.5
7
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-60
+9.5
11
@SMU
SMUL 91-102
−0.5
15
vsNICH
NICHW 99-79
+5.5
18
vsLR
LRW 89-68
+7.5
23
vsMTSU
MTSUL 87-90
−9.5
24
vsMCN
MCNL 60-73
−10.5
25
vsGW
GWW 96-95
+8.5
2
vsMORE
MOREW 84-52
+15.5
6
vsBELL
BELLW 81-68
−3.5
covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOMA
OMAW 85-77
+8.5
7
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-60
+8.5
11
@SMU
SMUL 91-102
+28.5
15
vsNICH
NICHW 99-79
+20.5
18
vsLR
LRW 89-68
+3.5
23
vsMTSU
MTSUL 87-90
+15.5
24
vsMCN
MCNL 60-73
−25.5
25
vsGW
GWW 96-95
+23.5
2
vsMORE
MOREW 84-52
−22.5
6
vsBELL
BELLW 81-68
−8.5
over 7under 3avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Akron
9 games played
Straight up
7-2
78% wins
Against the spread
7-2
78% covers · avg +8.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-3
67% overs · avg +10.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JMU | W 85-71 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 8 | vs PRIN | W 104-69 | -13.5 | W +21.5 | 156.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 16 | @ PUR | L 79-97 | +18.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 21 | vs IONA | W 96-75 | -11.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs EVAN | W 97-59 | -11.5 | W +26.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs YALE | L 94-97 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 29 | vs MILW | W 105-81 | -12.5 | W +11.5 | 166.5 | O 186 |
| Dec 3 | vs BUCK | W 97-77 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 6 | @ TULN | W 88-71 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+5.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+21.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+0.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
+9.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
+26.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
−4.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+11.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
−3.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
+10.5
covered 7didn’t cover 2avg +8.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+2.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+16.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+12.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
−2.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
−0.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
+34.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+19.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
+16.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
−3.5
over 6under 3avg +10.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Murray St
7-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bellarmine81–68
- Wvs Morehead St84–52
- Wvs G Washington96–95
- Lvs McNeese60–73
- Lvs MTSU87–90
A week or more of rest.
Akron
7-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Tulane88–71
- Wvs Bucknell97–77
- Wvs Milwaukee105–81
- Lvs Yale94–97
- Wvs Evansville97–59
A week or more of rest.