Prudential Center · Neutral site
Closing line
HOU -5.5✓ HOU covered by 3.5
HOU -5.5✓ HOU covered by 3.5Closing total146.5Over by 32.5
| HOU | This season | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| 10-1 | Record | 9-2 |
| 5-6 | ATS | 8-3 |
| 6-5 | O/U | 5-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: HOU 76–70 ARK · ✓ HOU (68%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 49 | 45 | 94 |
| ARK | 41 | 44 | 85 |
1st half: HOU 49, ARK 41 (HOU by 8). The model had HOU by 3.4 and a total of 68.5 (actual 90).
Team stats
| HOU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-62 52% | Field goals | 28-57 49% |
| 11-25 44% | 3-pointers | 8-20 40% |
| 19-25 76% | Free throws | 21-35 60% |
| 33 10 off | Rebounds | 34 12 off |
| 13 | Assists | 13 |
| 7 | Steals | 3 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 24 | Fouls | 18 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Uzan G | 39 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 5-10 | 2-4 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 36 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 7-15 | 0-2 |
| Emanuel Sharp G | 31 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 6-13 | 3-9 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. F | 23 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-1 |
| Joseph Tugler F | 15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ramon Walker Jr. G | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Isiah Harwell G | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Cedric Lath C | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Chase McCarty F | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Mercy Miller G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jacob McFarland, Kalifa Sakho, Bryce Jackson, Kordel Jefferson
| ARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. G | 39 | 27 | 5 | 7 | 9-15 | 1-3 |
| DJ Wagner G | 35 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4-10 | 3-6 |
| Karter Knox G | 28 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-5 |
| Trevon Brazile F | 21 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Nick Pringle F | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malique Ewin F | 28 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Billy Richmond III G | 24 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 5-6 | 2-2 |
| Meleek Thomas G | 15 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
Did not play: Elmir Dzafic, Karim Rtail, Paulo Semedo, Ayden Kelley, Jaden Karuletwa, Amere Brown, Isaiah Sealy
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -4.5
1 → HOU
CloseHOU -5.5
1 pt toward HOU
Total
Open143.5
▲ 3
Close146.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
HOU -245 · ARK +200
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -4.5 · closed HOU -5.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel HOU -5.5 matches the line
model HOU -5.5 = line ✓
Opened 143.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 3 upmodel 146
model 146
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -5.5 | HOU -5.4 | ARK +0.1 | L HOU covered |
| Total | 146.5 | 146.2 | Under 0.3 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | HOU 75.8 · ARK 70.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | HOU -3.4 | HOU -8.0 |
| 1H total | 68.5 | 90 |
| 1H projected score | HOU 35.9 · ARK 32.5 | HOU 49 · ARK 41 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| ARK | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Houston
11 games played
Straight up
10-1
91% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LEH | W 75-57 | -36.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs TOW | W 65-48 | -26.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 12 | vs OAK | W 78-45 | -30.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 16 | vs AUB | W 73-72 | -7.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 20 | vs RID | W 91-45 | -40.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs SYR | W 78-74 | -14.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TENN | L 73-76 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs ND | W 66-56 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs FSU | W 82-67 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs JKST | W 80-38 | -40.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | U 118 |
| Dec 13 | vs NOLA | W 99-57 | -32.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−18.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−9.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
+2.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
−6.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+5.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
−10.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
−5.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−1.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+2.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
+1.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+9.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−4.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−17.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
−15.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
+4.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+1.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
+11.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
+12.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−10.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+0.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
−19.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+17.5
over 6under 5avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas
11 games played
Straight up
9-2
82% wins
Against the spread
8-3
73% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-6
45% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SOU | W 109-77 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 8 | @ MSU | L 66-69 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | vs CARK | W 93-56 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAM | W 79-75 | -24.5 | L −20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs WIN | W 84-83 | -23.5 | L −22.5 | 168.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 21 | vsJKST | W 115-61 | -29.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 27 | vs DUKE | L 71-80 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | vs LOU | W 89-80 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs FRES | W 82-58 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs TTU | W 93-86 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 16 | vs QUC | W 108-80 | -23.5 | W +4.5 | 169.5 | O 188 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+5.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−0.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
+1.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−20.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−22.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+24.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
+3.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+10.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
+4.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+9.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+4.5
covered 8didn’t cover 3avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+35.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−20.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
−9.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−4.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−1.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+16.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
−8.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+2.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
−21.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+23.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+18.5
over 5under 6avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Houston
10-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs LSU N Orleans99–57
- Wvs Jackson St80–38
- Wvs Florida St82–67
- Wvs Notre Dame66–56
- Lvs Tennessee73–76
A week or more of rest.
Arkansas
9-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Queens University Royals108–80
- Wvs Texas Tech93–86
- Wvs Fresno St82–58
- Wvs Louisville89–80
- Lvs Duke71–80
4 days since their last game.