Northeastern Huskies at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 12:00 PM ETLJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest

Final

#89WAKEWake Forest86▲ winner

Closing lineWAKE -17.5✓ NE covered by 4.5

Closing total154.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Northeastern and Wake Forest
NE	This season	WAKE
3-3	Record	5-2
3-3	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NE 68–86 WAKE · ✓ WAKE (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NE	44	29	73
WAKE	45	41	86

1st half: NE 44, WAKE 45 (WAKE by 1). The model had WAKE by 10.8 and a total of 71.7 (actual 89).

Team stats

NE		WAKE
26-51 51%	Field goals	32-58 55%
10-18 56%	3-pointers	7-23 30%
11-15 73%	Free throws	15-20 75%
22 6 off	Rebounds	34 12 off
19	Assists	14
10	Steals	14
4	Blocks	3
22	Turnovers	17
15	Fouls	15
28	Points in paint	40
9	Fast-break points	14

Players

NE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Youri Fritz F	35	10	5	1	5-8	0-0
Xander Alarie F	33	15	6	6	5-7	1-1
Luca Soroa Schaller F	27	0	2	2	0-5	0-0
Miles Newton G	25	22	2	2	8-13	4-6
William Kermoury G	20	5	0	2	2-3	1-2
Bench
Mike Loughnane G	19	2	1	5	0-3	0-3
Xavier Abreu G	17	12	1	1	4-7	3-4
Haris Elezovic F	12	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
JB Frankel G	11	5	1	0	2-5	1-2
Ty Francis F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ryan Williams, Petar Pinter, Liam Koelsch, LA Pratt

WAKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Juke Harris G	30	17	3	2	3-11	1-8
Tre'Von Spillers F	26	17	10	2	8-11	0-1
Omaha Biliew F	24	2	5	0	1-2	0-1
Mekhi Mason G	19	8	0	1	3-6	2-5
Nate Calmese G	18	7	2	4	3-6	1-2
Bench
Myles Colvin G	24	11	3	0	3-7	2-3
Sebastian Akins G	22	13	1	3	6-8	1-2
Marqus Marion F	16	4	2	1	2-3	0-1
Cooper Schwieger F	14	5	1	1	2-3	0-0
Jaylen Cross G	7	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Dimitrije Kovacevic, Will Underwood, Anson Beard Jr., Isaac Carr, Vincent Ricchiuti

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WAKE -17.5	WAKE -18.1	WAKE +0.6	L NE covered
Total	154.5	153.2	Under 1.3	L Over
Projected score	—	NE 67.5 · WAKE 85.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WAKE -10.8	WAKE -1.0
1H total	71.7	89
1H projected score	NE 30.5 · WAKE 41.2	NE 44 · WAKE 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-1
WAKE WWWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; WAKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UUOUO	3-3	50%	3-3
WAKE OOOUU	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NElast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
WAKElast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northeastern

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBU	L 75-76	-2.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@COLG	W 68-65	+5.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	@HARV	W 77-60	+5.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUVM	L 74-85	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 20	@PRIN	L 57-70	+2.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 22	vsDUQ	W 93-86	+7.5	W +14.5	147.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 75-76

−3.5

COLG

W 68-65

+8.5

HARV

W 77-60

+22.5

UVM

L 74-85

−12.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−10.5

DUQ

W 93-86

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 75-76

+8.5

COLG

W 68-65

−14.5

HARV

W 77-60

−7.5

UVM

L 74-85

+24.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−18.5

DUQ

W 93-86

+31.5

over 3under 3avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wake Forest

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAMER	W 88-74	-19.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMORE	W 81-65	-22.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 11	vsMICH	L 84-85	+15.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsUML	W 109-75	-30.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 20	vsTTU	L 83-84	+9.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsMEM	W 69-68	-2.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsCAM	W 99-51	-17.5	W +30.5	159.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

−5.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+14.5

UML

W 109-75

+3.5

TTU

L 83-84

+8.5

MEM

W 69-68

−1.5

CAM

W 99-51

+30.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

+22.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+0.5

UML

W 109-75

+18.5

TTU

L 83-84

+6.5

MEM

W 69-68

−23.5

CAM

W 99-51

−9.5

over 4under 3avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northeastern @ Wake Forest

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Northeastern

Wake Forest

Northeastern

Wake Forest