Northern Kentucky Norse at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 2:00 PM ETMemorial Coliseum (IN) · at Purdue FW · Conference game

Final

#249PFWPurdue FW79▲ winner

Closing linePFW -1.5✓ PFW covered by 0.5

Closing total153.5Over by 2.5

Season records: N Kentucky and Purdue FW
NKU	This season	PFW
5-2	Record	1-6
5-2	ATS	2-5
4-3	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NKU 79–79 PFW · ✗ NKU (51%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NKU	44	33	77
PFW	29	50	79

1st half: NKU 44, PFW 29 (NKU by 15). The model had NKU by 0.2 and a total of 74.0 (actual 73).

Team stats

NKU		PFW
25-64 39%	Field goals	28-57 49%
10-35 29%	3-pointers	9-19 47%
17-18 94%	Free throws	14-22 64%
36 14 off	Rebounds	34 11 off
16	Assists	15
5	Steals	12
4	Blocks	4
18	Turnovers	18
17	Fouls	20
28	Points in paint	36
7	Fast-break points	11

Players

NKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dan Gherezgher G	36	27	7	2	8-19	7-14
LJ Wells F	33	14	7	2	5-9	1-4
Kael Robinson F	30	26	7	1	8-16	2-8
Ethan Elliott G	30	0	1	10	0-6	0-3
Tae Dozier G	24	2	4	1	1-5	0-2
Bench
Donovan Oday G	24	4	3	0	1-7	0-4
Donovan Rakotonanahary F	12	4	3	0	2-2	0-0
Shawn Nelson G	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ryan Tolliver F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Addison Archer F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Mitchel Minor, Juanma Ruiz, JJ Apathjang, Bryce Darbyshire

PFW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Corey Hadnot II G	36	25	4	4	8-14	2-3
Mikale Stevenson G	33	11	6	7	4-13	1-2
DeAndre Craig Jr. G	32	16	4	0	5-11	3-5
Darius Duffy F	28	6	8	1	3-5	0-0
Maximus Nelson F	26	6	2	0	2-4	2-4
Bench
EJ Mosley G	15	2	0	2	1-1	0-0
Deangelo Elisee F	11	4	2	0	2-2	0-0
Ebrahim Kaba G	8	5	2	0	1-3	1-3
Yuval Levin F	7	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Mason Shrout G	4	2	0	0	1-3	0-2

Did not play: Ja'Corey Lipkins, Chris Morgan, Danny Kelly, Solomon Richard, Quentin Morgan

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PFW -1.5	NKU -0.1	NKU +1.6	L PFW covered
Total	153.5	158.0	Over 4.5	W Over
Projected score	—	NKU 79.1 · PFW 78.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NKU -0.2	NKU -15.0
1H total	74.0	73
1H projected score	NKU 37.1 · PFW 36.9	NKU 44 · PFW 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NKU WWWWW	5-2	71%	1-2	1-2
PFW LWLWL	2-5	29%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: NKU away, as underdog; PFW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NKU OUOUO	4-3	57%	5-2
PFW UOUOO	5-2	71%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NKUlast 7	5-2 71%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
PFWlast 7	1-6 14%	2-5 29%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

NKU 6–3 PFWNKU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · NKU has won the last 2 meetings · NKU 5-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 27, 2024-25	NKU 79 @ PFW 74	PFW -6.5	NKU W
Jan 1, 2024-25	PFW 68 @ NKU 69	NKU -2.5	PFW W
Jan 25, 2023-24	PFW 63 @ NKU 58	NKU -3.5	PFW W
Dec 29, 2023-24	NKU 60 @ PFW 73	PFW -4.5	PFW W
Feb 17, 2022-23	NKU 63 @ PFW 50	PFW +3.5	NKU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Kentucky

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +7.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 20	@CMU	W 90-66	+4.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsEKU	W 82-71	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 26	vsWOF	W 93-83	-3.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsBU	W 74-65	-7.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsCLE	W 95-80	-14.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

CMU

W 90-66

+28.5

EKU

W 82-71

+6.5

WOF

W 93-83

+6.5

W 74-65

+1.5

CLE

W 95-80

+0.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

CMU

W 90-66

+9.5

EKU

W 82-71

−3.5

WOF

W 93-83

+26.5

W 74-65

−4.5

CLE

W 95-80

+16.5

over 4under 3avg +7.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Purdue FW

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GCU	L 71-90	+14.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 161
Nov 7	@OSU	L 68-94	+24.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 12	@WMU	L 71-83	-3.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 18	@UTAH	L 77-85	+13.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 21	@SLU	L 60-91	+19.5	L −11.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 25	vsCHST	W 90-77	-12.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 3	@OAK	L 92-101	+4.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 193

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

−4.5

OSU

L 68-94

−1.5

WMU

L 71-83

−15.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+5.5

SLU

L 60-91

−11.5

CHST

W 90-77

+0.5

OAK

L 92-101

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

+5.5

OSU

L 68-94

+2.5

WMU

L 71-83

−7.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+0.5

SLU

L 60-91

−15.5

CHST

W 90-77

+17.5

OAK

L 92-101

+30.5

over 5under 2avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Kentucky @ Purdue FW

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Kentucky

Purdue FW

N Kentucky

Purdue FW