Finneran Pavilion · at Villanova
Closing line
VILL -10.5✓ VILL covered by 7.5
VILL -10.5✓ VILL covered by 7.5Closing total138.5Over by 1.5
 PITT | This season | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | Record | 7-2 |
| 4-6 | ATS | 6-3 |
| 4-6 | O/U | 4-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PITT 64–75 VILL · ✓ VILL (82%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 32 | 29 | 61 |
| VILL | 41 | 38 | 79 |
1st half: PITT 32, VILL 41 (VILL by 9). The model had VILL by 6.2 and a total of 65.3 (actual 73).
Team stats
| PITT | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-57 42% | Field goals | 26-50 52% |
| 5-22 23% | 3-pointers | 9-22 41% |
| 8-12 67% | Free throws | 18-24 75% |
| 36 16 off | Rebounds | 27 7 off |
| 12 | Assists | 20 |
| 2 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| PITT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Dunning Jr. G | 39 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 7-11 | 3-6 |
| Damarco Minor G | 30 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-4 |
| Cameron Corhen F | 29 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-0 |
| Brandin Cummings G | 28 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-5 |
| Roman Siulepa F | 20 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nojus Indrusaitis G | 25 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 6-13 | 1-5 |
| Omari Witherspoon G | 19 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Kieran Mullen C | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Macari Moore G | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jajuan Nelson, Benjamin Mayhew, Amdy Ndiaye, Papa Amadou Kante, Henry Lau, Dishon Jackson
| VILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Brennan F | 34 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 8-8 | 0-0 |
| Bryce Lindsay G | 32 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 8-18 | 4-11 |
| Acaden Lewis G | 31 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 4-9 | 1-1 |
| Matt Hodge F | 26 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Tyler Perkins G | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Devin Askew G | 26 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Tafara Gapare F | 14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Chris Jeffrey G | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Malachi Palmer G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Braden Pierce C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zion Stanford, Wade Chiddick, Nico Onyekwere, Malcolm Flaggs
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketVILL -10.5
ModelVILL -10.5
Model edge—
VILL covered
Total
Market138.5
Model139.3
Model edgeOver 0.8
W Over
Projected score
PITT 64.4 · VILL 74.9
PITT 61 · VILL 79
Win probability
VILL 82%
1st half
Spread
VILL -6.2
VILL -9.0
Total
65.3
73 points
Projected score
PITT 29.5 · VILL 35.7
PITT 32 · VILL 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVILL -10.5
no move
CloseVILL -10.5
No change since the open
Total
Open138.5
no move
Close138.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
PITT +425 · VILL -575
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VILL -10.5 · unchangedmodel VILL -10.5 matches the line
model VILL -10.5 = line ✓
Opened 138.5 · unchangedmodel 139.5
model 139.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| VILLlast 9 | 7-2 78% | 6-3 67% | 4-5 44% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pitt
10 games played
Straight up
5-5
50% wins
Against the spread
4-6
40% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-6
40% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs YSU | W 74-59 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs LONG | W 78-60 | -14.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 10 | vs EMU | W 78-66 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 13 | @ WVU | L 49-71 | +5.5 | L −16.5 | 134.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 17 | vs BUCK | W 84-50 | -16.5 | W +17.5 | 141.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 20 | vs UCF | L 67-77 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 23 | vs QUIN | L 75-83 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 140.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 28 | vs OSU | W 67-66 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 2 | vs TA&M | L 73-81 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 7 | vs HOF | L 73-80 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 134.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsYSU
YSUW 74-59
+0.5
7
vsLONG
LONGW 78-60
+3.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 78-66
−3.5
13
@WVU
WVUL 49-71
−16.5
17
vsBUCK
BUCKW 84-50
+17.5
20
vsUCF
UCFL 67-77
−11.5
23
vsQUIN
QUINL 75-83
−20.5
28
vsOSU
OSUW 67-66
+6.5
2
vsTA&M
TA&ML 73-81
−4.5
7
vsHOF
HOFL 73-80
−15.5
covered 4didn’t cover 6avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsYSU
YSUW 74-59
−12.5
7
vsLONG
LONGW 78-60
−7.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 78-66
+2.5
13
@WVU
WVUL 49-71
−14.5
17
vsBUCK
BUCKW 84-50
−7.5
20
vsUCF
UCFL 67-77
−5.5
23
vsQUIN
QUINL 75-83
+17.5
28
vsOSU
OSUW 67-66
−15.5
2
vsTA&M
TA&ML 73-81
+1.5
7
vsHOF
HOFL 73-80
+18.5
over 4under 6avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Villanova
9 games played
Straight up
7-2
78% wins
Against the spread
6-3
67% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BYU | L 66-71 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs QUC | W 94-74 | -17.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs SHU | W 94-60 | -19.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 15 | vs DUQ | W 87-77 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 19 | @ LAS | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 25 | vs ODU | W 89-75 | -22.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 1 | vs TEM | W 74-56 | -14.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 6 | vs PENN | W 90-63 | -18.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 9 | @ MICH | L 61-89 | +17.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
+4.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+2.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
+14.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
−0.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
+2.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
−8.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
+3.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+8.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−10.5
covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
−16.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+17.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
−6.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
+12.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
−19.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
+16.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
−16.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+2.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−6.5
over 4under 5avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pitt
5-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Hofstra73–80
- Lvs Texas A&M73–81
- Wvs Ohio State67–66
- Lvs Quinnipiac75–83
- Lvs UCF67–77
6 days since their last game.
Villanova
7-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Michigan61–89
- Wvs Penn90–63
- Wvs Temple74–56
- Wvs Old Dominion89–75
- W@ La Salle70–55
4 days since their last game.