Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
Closing line
UNC -29.5✓ UPST covered by 11.5
UNC -29.5✓ UPST covered by 11.5Closing total151.5Under by 9.5
 UPST | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | Record | 8-1 |
| 7-2 | ATS | 6-3 |
| 4-5 | O/U | 3-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UPST 64–89 UNC · ✓ UNC (99%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | 28 | 34 | 62 |
| UNC | 37 | 43 | 80 |
1st half: UPST 28, UNC 37 (UNC by 9). The model had UNC by 14.9 and a total of 71.7 (actual 65).
Team stats
| UPST | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-66 38% | Field goals | 28-55 51% |
| 10-27 37% | 3-pointers | 10-23 43% |
| 2-3 67% | Free throws | 14-22 64% |
| 34 11 off | Rebounds | 37 7 off |
| 12 | Assists | 20 |
| 2 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| UPST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Bendinger G | 33 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 6-17 | 1-4 |
| Tyler Smith G | 33 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3-6 | 2-2 |
| Jafeth Martinez F | 28 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Karmani Gregory G | 26 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 4-15 | 1-5 |
| Learic Davis F | 22 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5-8 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Carmelo Adkins G | 25 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-10 | 1-7 |
| Isaiah Skinner G | 22 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3-5 | 3-4 |
| Coen Collier C | 11 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kanye Jones, Nic Book, Chico Johnson, TJ Lewis, Breylin Garcia, CJ Rich
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Bogavac G | 32 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 6-11 | 3-6 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 32 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6-7 | 1-1 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 30 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 5-11 | 1-3 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 23 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Kyan Evans G | 23 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 24 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 6-9 | 3-6 |
| Derek Dixon G | 21 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Jaydon Young G | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| James Brown C | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Zayden High F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Seth Trimble, Evan Smith, Ivan Matlekovic, John Holbrook, Isaiah Denis, Elijah Davis
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -28.5
1 → UNC
CloseUNC -29.5
1 pt toward UNC
Total
Open146.5
▲ 5
Close151.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -28.5 · closed UNC -29.5 · moved 1 toward UNCmodel UNC -25
model UNC -25
Opened 146.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 5 upmodel 153
model 153
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNC -29.5 | UNC -25.0 | UPST +4.5 | W UPST covered |
| Total | 151.5 | 153.1 | Over 1.6 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | UPST 64.1 · UNC 89.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UNC -14.9 | UNC -9.0 |
| 1H total | 71.7 | 65 |
| 1H projected score | UPST 28.4 · UNC 43.3 | UPST 28 · UNC 37 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPSTlast 9 | 4-5 44% | 7-2 78% | 4-5 44% |
| UNClast 9 | 8-1 89% | 6-3 67% | 3-6 33% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
SC Upstate
9 games played
Straight up
4-5
44% wins
Against the spread
7-2
78% covers · avg +4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg −5.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CBU | L 75-87 | +14.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 5 | @ FRES | W 67-66 | +9.5 | W +10.5 | 164.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 15 | @ UNCW | L 60-73 | +14.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 19 | vs TNTC | L 84-88 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 150.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 21 | @ WGA | L 64-72 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 153.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 25 | vs NCCU | W 82-67 | -7.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 29 | @ NEB | L 63-72 | +25.5 | W +16.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 3 | vs CCU | W 85-78 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 6 | vs WCU | W 78-67 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CBU
CBUL 75-87
+2.5
5
@FRES
FRESW 67-66
+10.5
15
@UNCW
UNCWL 60-73
+1.5
19
vsTNTC
TNTCL 84-88
−6.5
21
@WGA
WGAL 64-72
−5.5
25
vsNCCU
NCCUW 82-67
+7.5
29
@NEB
NEBL 63-72
+16.5
3
vsCCU
CCUW 85-78
+4.5
6
vsWCU
WCUW 78-67
+8.5
covered 7didn’t cover 2avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CBU
CBUL 75-87
+9.5
5
@FRES
FRESW 67-66
−31.5
15
@UNCW
UNCWL 60-73
−22.5
19
vsTNTC
TNTCL 84-88
+21.5
21
@WGA
WGAL 64-72
−17.5
25
vsNCCU
NCCUW 82-67
+0.5
29
@NEB
NEBL 63-72
−22.5
3
vsCCU
CCUW 85-78
+18.5
6
vsWCU
WCUW 78-67
−4.5
over 4under 5avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
9 games played
Straight up
8-1
89% wins
Against the spread
6-3
67% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-6
33% overs · avg −11.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vsNCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
over 3under 6avg −11.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
SC Upstate
4-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big South Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs W Carolina78–67
- Wvs Coastal85–78
- L@ Nebraska63–72
- Wvs NC Central82–67
- L@ West Georgia64–72
A week or more of rest.
North Carolina
8-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgetown81–61
- W@ Kentucky67–64
- Lvs Michigan St58–74
- Wvs St Bonaventure85–70
- Wvs Navy73–61
6 days since their last game.