Suncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
MSU -1.5✓ MSU covered by 14.5
MSU -1.5✓ MSU covered by 14.5Closing total152.5Under by 20.5
| MSU | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 6-0 |
| 3-3 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSU 76–73 UNC · ✓ MSU (59%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 33 | 41 | 74 |
| UNC | 28 | 30 | 58 |
1st half: MSU 33, UNC 28 (MSU by 5). The model had MSU by 1.8 and a total of 70.0 (actual 61).
Team stats
| MSU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-60 52% | Field goals | 21-55 38% |
| 5-10 50% | 3-pointers | 4-23 17% |
| 7-9 78% | Free throws | 12-17 71% |
| 37 12 off | Rebounds | 30 12 off |
| 14 | Assists | 9 |
| 2 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 2 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 46 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 36 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 8-10 | 1-1 |
| Coen Carr F | 36 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4-10 | 0-1 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 32 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Carson Cooper C | 30 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 6-10 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-7 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam Ward F | 16 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Kur Teng G | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Jordan Scott F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nick Sanders, Denham Wojcik, Brennan Walton, Colin Walton, Kaleb Glenn
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Bogavac G | 35 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 4-12 | 1-6 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 33 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 6-13 | 0-3 |
| Kyan Evans G | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-5 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 29 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 6-9 | 1-2 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 23 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Derek Dixon G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| James Brown C | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Zayden High F | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Seth Trimble, Jaydon Young, Elijah Davis, Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, Ivan Matlekovic, Evan Smith
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -2.5
4 → MSU
CloseMSU -1.5
4 pts toward MSU
Total
Open150.5
▲ 2
Close152.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MSU -118 · UNC -102
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -2.5 · closed MSU -1.5 · moved 4 toward MSUmodel MSU -3
model MSU -3
Opened 150.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 2 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSU -1.5 | MSU -2.8 | MSU +1.3 | W MSU covered |
| Total | 152.5 | 149.4 | Under 3.1 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | MSU 76.1 · UNC 73.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSU -1.8 | MSU -5.0 |
| 1H total | 70.0 | 61 |
| 1H projected score | MSU 35.9 · UNC 34.1 | MSU 33 · UNC 28 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSUlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 3-3 50% | 2-4 33% |
| UNClast 6 | 6-0 100% | 4-2 67% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MSU 1–1 UNCSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · MSU 1-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2024-25 | MSU 94 vs UNC 91 | UNC -4.5 | MSU W |
| Mar 23, 2023-24 | MSU 69 vs UNC 85 | UNC -3.5 | UNC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan St
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
COLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vs
ARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vs
SJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vs
UK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vs
DETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vs
ECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
over 2under 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vs
KU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vs
RAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vs
NCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vs
NAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vs
SBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
over 3under 3avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan St
6-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs East Carolina89–56
- Wvs Detroit Mercy84–56
- Wvs Kentucky83–66
- Wvs San José St79–60
- Wvs Arkansas69–66
2 days since their last game.
North Carolina
6-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs St Bonaventure85–70
- Wvs Navy73–61
- Wvs NC Central97–53
- Wvs Radford89–74
- Wvs Kansas87–74
2 days since their last game.