University Arena (MI) · at W Michigan · Conference game
Closing line
BUF -2.5✓ BUF covered by 14.5
BUF -2.5✓ BUF covered by 14.5Closing total150.5Over by 8.5
| BUF | This season | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | Record | 5-5 |
| 7-3 | ATS | 6-4 |
| 5-5 | O/U | 5-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 76–77 WMU · ✗ WMU (53%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 41 | 47 | 88 |
| WMU | 28 | 43 | 71 |
1st half: BUF 41, WMU 28 (BUF by 13). The model had WMU by 0.3 and a total of 71.7 (actual 69).
Team stats
| BUF | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-59 49% | Field goals | 26-66 39% |
| 12-32 38% | 3-pointers | 10-33 30% |
| 18-24 75% | Free throws | 9-12 75% |
| 39 10 off | Rebounds | 35 12 off |
| 15 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 2 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sabol G | 36 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 5-13 | 5-12 |
| Daniel Freitag G | 35 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 6-16 | 2-8 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 28 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Tim Oboh F | 25 | 15 | 13 | 0 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 24 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 21 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 16 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 15 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5-7 | 3-4 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Kyle Jones, Matas Buteliauskas, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic
| WMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Griffith G | 39 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 7-17 | 4-10 |
| EJ Ryans G | 36 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 3-10 | 1-6 |
| Max Burton F | 22 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Brewer G | 17 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-1 |
| Brady Swartz G | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-7 | 1-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Hudson Ward F | 23 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| Trey Lewis G | 20 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Michael Sulaka F | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Carson Vis G | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Declan Peterson C | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Justice Williams, Camden Thompson, Sharod Barnes, Nicholas Errica, Junior Sileu
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBUF -2.5
ModelWMU -0.7
Model edgeWMU +3.2
L BUF covered
Total
Market150.5
Model153.1
Model edgeOver 2.6
W Over
Projected score
BUF 76.2 · WMU 76.9
BUF 88 · WMU 71
Win probability
WMU 53%
1st half
Spread
WMU -0.3
BUF -13.0
Total
71.7
69 points
Projected score
BUF 35.7 · WMU 36
BUF 41 · WMU 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWMU -1.5
4 → BUF
CloseBUF -2.5
4 pts toward BUF
Total
Open152.5
▼ 2
Close150.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
BUF -135 · WMU +114
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WMU -1.5 · closed BUF -2.5 · moved 4 toward BUFmodel WMU -0.5
model WMU -0.5
Opened 152.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 2 downmodel 153
model 153
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| WMU | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
BUF 4–3 WMUBUF leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · BUF 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024-25 | WMU 97 @ BUF 64 | BUF +2.5 | WMU W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | BUF 85 @ WMU 76 | WMU -8.5 | BUF W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | BUF 72 @ WMU 91 | WMU -6.5 | WMU W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | WMU 82 @ BUF 77 | BUF -2.5 | WMU W |
| Feb 4, 2022-23 | BUF 85 @ WMU 76 | WMU +3.5 | BUF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
10 games played
Straight up
8-2
80% wins
Against the spread
7-3
70% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 3avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
over 5under 5avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
W Michigan
10 games played
Straight up
5-5
50% wins
Against the spread
6-4
60% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CCU | W 76-71 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 9 | @ CAM | L 82-91 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 12 | vs PFW | W 83-71 | +3.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | @ SDAK | L 78-83 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 172.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 20 | @ OSU | L 58-91 | +26.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 23 | vs MSM | W 83-60 | -1.5 | W +21.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 29 | @ VAL | L 55-84 | +4.5 | L −24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 3 | vs USI | W 88-74 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 6 | @ SIUE | W 83-73 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 139.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 14 | @ IOWA | L 51-91 | +25.5 | L −14.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCCU
CCUW 76-71
+2.5
9
@CAM
CAML 82-91
+0.5
12
vsPFW
PFWW 83-71
+15.5
16
@SDAK
SDAKL 78-83
−1.5
20
@OSU
OSUL 58-91
−6.5
23
vsMSM
MSMW 83-60
+21.5
29
@VAL
VALL 55-84
−24.5
3
vsUSI
USIW 88-74
+8.5
6
@SIUE
SIUEW 83-73
+15.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 51-91
−14.5
covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCCU
CCUW 76-71
+0.5
9
@CAM
CAML 82-91
+20.5
12
vsPFW
PFWW 83-71
−7.5
16
@SDAK
SDAKL 78-83
−11.5
20
@OSU
OSUL 58-91
−10.5
23
vsMSM
MSMW 83-60
−7.5
29
@VAL
VALL 55-84
−7.5
3
vsUSI
USIW 88-74
+11.5
6
@SIUE
SIUEW 83-73
+16.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 51-91
+4.5
over 5under 5avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
8-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ East Carolina70–73
- W@ UMBC83–79
- Lvs St Bonaventure69–77
- W@ Canisius71–53
- Wvs Bucknell73–71
6 days since their last game.
W Michigan
5-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Iowa51–91
- W@ SIUE83–73
- Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles88–74
- L@ Valparaiso55–84
- Wvs Mount St Marys83–60
6 days since their last game.