Kaplan Arena · at William & Mary · Conference game
Closing line
W&M -13.5✓ NCAT covered by 5.5
W&M -13.5✓ NCAT covered by 5.5Closing total162.5Over by 23.5
 NCAT | This season | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| 5-8 | Record | 9-6 |
| 8-5 | ATS | 11-4 |
| 6-7 | O/U | 6-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCAT 74–85 W&M · ✓ W&M (83%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCAT | 40 | 49 | 89 |
| W&M | 42 | 55 | 97 |
1st half: NCAT 40, W&M 42 (W&M by 2). The model had W&M by 6.4 and a total of 74.3 (actual 82).
Team stats
| NCAT | W&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-54 59% | Field goals | 33-57 58% |
| 8-18 44% | 3-pointers | 9-16 56% |
| 17-23 74% | Free throws | 22-31 71% |
| 30 6 off | Rebounds | 25 6 off |
| 12 | Assists | 28 |
| 4 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 23 | Fouls | 21 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| NCAT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Walker F | 37 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 11-14 | 3-4 |
| Zamoku Weluche-Ume F | 30 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 5-8 | 1-3 |
| Bryson Ogletree G | 28 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Trent Middleton Jr. G | 26 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 8-12 | 4-5 |
| Amadou Doumbia F | 19 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mujahiid Burton G | 27 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-4 |
| Brooklyn Vick G | 25 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Will Felton C | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| KJ Debrick F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Yancarlos Cueto, Efstratios Kalliontzis, Chanler Montgomery, Lo Walker, Uchenna Kellman-Nicholes, Dwayne Pierce, Jalal McKie
| W&M | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi F | 32 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 6-10 | 2-3 |
| Kilian Brockhoff F | 22 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Chase Lowe G | 20 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Pulliam G | 16 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Cade Haskins F | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Reese Miller G | 27 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 8-12 | 3-5 |
| Jo'el Emanuel F | 25 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Jhei-R Jones G | 23 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Ryan Jackson Jr. G | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Finn Lally F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Frazier G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Colin Lamine Ndaw, Miles Hicks, Ethan Connery, Kaleb Spencer
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketW&M -13.5
ModelW&M -10.9
Model edgeNCAT +2.6
W NCAT covered
Total
Market162.5
Model158.8
Model edgeUnder 3.8
L Over
Projected score
NCAT 73.9 · W&M 84.8
NCAT 89 · W&M 97
Win probability
W&M 83%
1st half
Spread
W&M -6.4
W&M -2.0
Total
74.3
82 points
Projected score
NCAT 34 · W&M 40.4
NCAT 40 · W&M 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenW&M -11.5
2 → W&M
CloseW&M -13.5
2 pts toward W&M
Total
Open160.5
▲ 2
Close162.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
NCAT +800 · W&M -1350
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened W&M -11.5 · closed W&M -13.5 · moved 2 toward W&Mmodel W&M -11
model W&M -11
Opened 160.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 2 upmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCAT | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| W&M | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
NCAT 2–2 W&MSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · W&M has won the last 2 meetings · NCAT 3-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | NCAT 78 @ W&M 81 | W&M -12.5 | NCAT W |
| Mar 8, 2023-24 | W&M 79 vs NCAT 62 | NCAT +6.5 | W&M W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | W&M 69 @ NCAT 76 | NCAT +1.5 | NCAT W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | NCAT 90 @ W&M 86 | W&M -0.5 | NCAT W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC A&T
13 games played
Straight up
5-8
38% wins
Against the spread
8-5
62% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-7
46% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ SC | L 72-91 | +22.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 10 | vs SCST | W 85-62 | -2.5 | W +20.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 18 | @ MORG | W 79-73 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 28 | @ DAV | L 74-90 | +13.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 2 | @ CLT | L 57-74 | +7.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 6 | @ NCCU | W 69-54 | -2.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 9 | vs HOW | L 69-73 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 12 | vs UMES | W 82-79 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 130.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 16 | @ UNCG | W 71-65 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 29 | vs UNCW | L 78-87 | +10.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 31 | vs NE | L 74-85 | +3.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ STBK | L 80-81 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 8 | vs ELON | L 64-69 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@SC
SCL 72-91
+3.5
10
vsSCST
SCSTW 85-62
+20.5
18
@MORG
MORGW 79-73
+3.5
28
@DAV
DAVL 74-90
−2.5
2
@CLT
CLTL 57-74
−9.5
6
@NCCU
NCCUW 69-54
+12.5
9
vsHOW
HOWL 69-73
−6.5
12
vsUMES
UMESW 82-79
−4.5
16
@UNCG
UNCGW 71-65
+12.5
29
vsUNCW
UNCWL 78-87
+1.5
31
vsNE
NEL 74-85
−7.5
3
@STBK
STBKL 80-81
+3.5
8
vsELON
ELONL 64-69
+1.5
covered 8didn’t cover 5avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@SC
SCL 72-91
+19.5
10
vsSCST
SCSTW 85-62
−12.5
18
@MORG
MORGW 79-73
−9.5
28
@DAV
DAVL 74-90
+18.5
2
@CLT
CLTL 57-74
−13.5
6
@NCCU
NCCUW 69-54
−19.5
9
vsHOW
HOWL 69-73
−7.5
12
vsUMES
UMESW 82-79
+30.5
16
@UNCG
UNCGW 71-65
−11.5
29
vsUNCW
UNCWL 78-87
+18.5
31
vsNE
NEL 74-85
+7.5
3
@STBK
STBKL 80-81
+19.5
8
vsELON
ELONL 64-69
−25.5
over 6under 7avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
William & Mary
15 games played
Straight up
9-6
60% wins
Against the spread
11-4
73% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-9
40% overs · avg −6.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ NORF | W 81-78 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ RICH | L 86-90 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 164.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | @ SJU | L 60-93 | +28.5 | L −4.5 | 179.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 19 | @ BGSU | W 82-74 | +8.5 | W +16.5 | 167.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs UTEP | W 74-63 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs ACU | W 92-58 | +1.5 | W +35.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 30 | vs ODU | W 88-75 | -8.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ DUQ | W 83-79 | +5.5 | W +9.5 | 170.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | @ GW | L 86-99 | +13.5 | W +0.5 | 174.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 18 | vs RAD | W 96-83 | -8.5 | W +4.5 | 170.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | vs TOW | W 84-70 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 31 | vsSTBK | W 76-57 | -11.5 | W +7.5 | 159.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 5 | @ COFC | L 79-88 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 165.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 8 | @ MONM | L 70-81 | -2.5 | L −13.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 10 | @ DREX | L 58-64 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | U 122 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@NORF
NORFW 81-78
+0.5
11
@RICH
RICHL 86-90
+5.5
15
@SJU
SJUL 60-93
−4.5
19
@BGSU
BGSUW 82-74
+16.5
24
vsUTEP
UTEPW 74-63
+8.5
25
vsACU
ACUW 92-58
+35.5
30
vsODU
ODUW 88-75
+4.5
2
@DUQ
DUQW 83-79
+9.5
6
@GW
GWL 86-99
+0.5
18
vsRAD
RADW 96-83
+4.5
29
vsTOW
TOWW 84-70
+12.5
31
vsSTBK
STBKW 76-57
+7.5
5
@COFC
COFCL 79-88
−6.5
8
@MONM
MONML 70-81
−13.5
10
@DREX
DREXL 58-64
−9.5
covered 11didn’t cover 4avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@NORF
NORFW 81-78
+0.5
11
@RICH
RICHL 86-90
+11.5
15
@SJU
SJUL 60-93
−26.5
19
@BGSU
BGSUW 82-74
−11.5
24
vsUTEP
UTEPW 74-63
−22.5
25
vsACU
ACUW 92-58
+2.5
30
vsODU
ODUW 88-75
−0.5
2
@DUQ
DUQW 83-79
−8.5
6
@GW
GWL 86-99
+10.5
18
vsRAD
RADW 96-83
+8.5
29
vsTOW
TOWW 84-70
−3.5
31
vsSTBK
STBKW 76-57
−26.5
5
@COFC
COFCL 79-88
+1.5
8
@MONM
MONML 70-81
−5.5
10
@DREX
DREXL 58-64
−28.5
over 6under 9avg −6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC A&T
5-8 overall · 0-4 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Elon64–69
- L@ Stony Brook80–81
- Lvs Northeastern74–85
- Lvs UNC Wilmington78–87
- W@ UNC Greensboro71–65
A week or more of rest.
William & Mary
9-6 overall · 2-3 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Drexel58–64
- L@ Monmouth70–81
- L@ Charleston79–88
- Wvs Stony Brook76–57
- Wvs Towson84–70
5 days since their last game.