Mizzou Arena · at Missouri
Closing line
MIZ -24.5✓ MIZ covered by 9.5
MIZ -24.5✓ MIZ covered by 9.5Closing total171.5Under by 1.5
 SDAK | This season | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 3-1 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 0-4 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SDAK 76–97 MIZ · ✓ MIZ (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDAK | 42 | 26 | 68 |
| MIZ | 53 | 49 | 102 |
1st half: SDAK 42, MIZ 53 (MIZ by 11). The model had MIZ by 12.5 and a total of 80.5 (actual 95).
Team stats
| SDAK | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-58 40% | Field goals | 36-56 64% |
| 10-29 34% | 3-pointers | 6-11 55% |
| 12-21 57% | Free throws | 24-30 80% |
| 24 12 off | Rebounds | 38 12 off |
| 9 | Assists | 16 |
| 8 | Steals | 10 |
| 4 | Blocks | 2 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 56 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| SDAK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Bruns G | 30 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5-15 | 2-8 |
| Jordan Crawford G | 27 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 7-15 | 3-9 |
| Shey Eberwein G | 26 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Cameron Fens C | 20 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Evan Anderson G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Uzziah Buntyn G | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Jesse McIntosh G | 18 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Vince Buzelis G | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Ethan Kizer F | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Jake Brack F | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ashton Smith F | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Porter Ihnen G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jalen Hayes, Josiah Dotzler, Luke Bruns, Caleb Kizer, Jonah Funk
| MIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Robinson II G | 32 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Mark Mitchell Jr. G | 28 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 7-12 | 0-0 |
| Jevon Porter F | 24 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 9-9 | 0-0 |
| Sebastian Mack G | 21 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 6-11 | 0-1 |
| Luke Northweather F | 20 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Stone G | 24 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Jacob Crews G | 21 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
| Annor Boateng G | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| T.O. Barrett F | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Nicholas Randall F | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Trent Burns, Shawn Phillips Jr., Aaron Rowe, Trent Pierce
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIZ -24.5
ModelMIZ -21.0
Model edgeSDAK +3.5
L MIZ covered
Total
Market171.5
Model171.9
Model edgeOver 0.4
L Under
Projected score
SDAK 75.5 · MIZ 96.5
SDAK 68 · MIZ 102
Win probability
MIZ 97%
1st half
Spread
MIZ -12.5
MIZ -11.0
Total
80.5
95 points
Projected score
SDAK 34 · MIZ 46.5
SDAK 42 · MIZ 53
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIZ -28.5
4 → SDAK
CloseMIZ -24.5
4 pts toward SDAK
Total
Open172.5
▼ 1
Close171.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
SDAK +2500 · MIZ -10000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIZ -28.5 · closed MIZ -24.5 · moved 4 toward SDAKmodel MIZ -21
model MIZ -21
Opened 172.5 · closed 171.5 · moved 1 downmodel 172
model 172
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDAKlast 4 | 2-2 50% | 3-1 75% | 0-4 0% |
| MIZlast 5 | 5-0 100% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
South Dakota
4 games played
Straight up
2-2
50% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-4
0% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
UTU
UTUL 79-81
−3.5
5
@
CREI
CREIL 76-92
+13.5
12
vs
USI
USIW 89-74
+7.5
16
vs
WMU
WMUW 83-78
+1.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUTU
UTUL 79-81
−4.5
5
@CREI
CREIL 76-92
−1.5
12
vsUSI
USIW 89-74
−1.5
16
vsWMU
WMUW 83-78
−11.5
over 0under 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Missouri
5 games played
Straight up
5-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
HOW
HOWW 88-67
+0.5
7
vs
SEMO
SEMOW 89-84
−20.5
9
vs
VMI
VMIW 106-68
+14.5
12
vs
MINN
MINNW 83-60
+15.5
17
vs
PV
PVW 91-73
−17.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
−3.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
+15.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+12.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
−15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−2.5
over 2under 3avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
South Dakota
2-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Summit League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs W Michigan83–78
- Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–74
- L@ Creighton76–92
- Lvs Utah Tech79–81
4 days since their last game.
Missouri
5-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Prairie View91–73
- Wvs Minnesota83–60
- Wvs VMI106–68
- Wvs SE Missouri89–84
- W@ Howard88–67
3 days since their last game.