Icardo Center · at Bakersfield · Conference game
Closing line
UCSD -8.5✓ UCSD covered by 12.5
UCSD -8.5✓ UCSD covered by 12.5Closing total147.5Under by 2.5
| UCSD | This season | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | Record | 6-11 |
| 9-7 | ATS | 8-9 |
| 9-7 | O/U | 7-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCSD 80–70 CSUB · ✓ UCSD (79%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSD | 38 | 45 | 83 |
| CSUB | 30 | 32 | 62 |
1st half: UCSD 38, CSUB 30 (UCSD by 8). The model had UCSD by 5.7 and a total of 70.3 (actual 68).
Team stats
| UCSD | CSUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-63 46% | Field goals | 18-56 32% |
| 11-27 41% | 3-pointers | 7-22 32% |
| 14-20 70% | Free throws | 19-27 70% |
| 38 9 off | Rebounds | 43 13 off |
| 15 | Assists | 11 |
| 13 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 7 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| UCSD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Beath F | 29 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 6-10 | 2-4 |
| Tom Beattie G | 29 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Alex Chaikin G | 28 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 5-10 | 4-9 |
| Emanuel Prospere II G | 26 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
| Bol Dengdit C | 22 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Hudson Mayes G | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Aidan Burke G | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Dimitrije Vukicevic C | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Trap Johnson G | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Jaden Vance F | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ryder Elisaldez G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Christopher Cox G | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Cade Pendleton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tyson Dunn, Yaqub Mir, Jasen Brooks
| CSUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dailin Smith G | 29 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3-13 | 3-8 |
| Pierre Geneste Jr. C | 29 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| AJ George G | 25 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Kadar Waller G | 23 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Jaden Alexander G | 20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tom Mark F | 31 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7-9 | 2-4 |
| Mike Price G | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-7 | 0-4 |
| Ronald Jessamy F | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bentley Waller G | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Purnell G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| TJ James Jr. G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: CJ Hardy, Caleb McCarty, Colin Darby
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCSD -8.5
ModelUCSD -9.4
Model edgeUCSD +0.9
W UCSD covered
Total
Market147.5
Model150.2
Model edgeOver 2.7
L Under
Projected score
UCSD 79.8 · CSUB 70.4
UCSD 83 · CSUB 62
Win probability
UCSD 79%
1st half
Spread
UCSD -5.7
UCSD -8.0
Total
70.3
68 points
Projected score
UCSD 38 · CSUB 32.3
UCSD 38 · CSUB 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCSD -8.5
no move
CloseUCSD -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open152.5
▼ 5
Close147.5
Down 5 since the open
Moneyline
UCSD -410 · CSUB +320
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCSD -8.5 · unchangedmodel UCSD -9.5
model UCSD -9.5
Opened 152.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 5 downmodel 150
model 150
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSD | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
| CSUB | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
UCSD 5–3 CSUBUCSD leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UCSD has won the last 2 meetings · UCSD 5-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024-25 | UCSD 73 @ CSUB 54 | CSUB +13.5 | UCSD W |
| Dec 7, 2024-25 | CSUB 60 @ UCSD 81 | UCSD -10.5 | UCSD W |
| Feb 29, 2023-24 | UCSD 57 @ CSUB 70 | CSUB +5.5 | CSUB W |
| Dec 28, 2023-24 | CSUB 64 @ UCSD 76 | UCSD -7.5 | UCSD W |
| Feb 4, 2022-23 | CSUB 75 @ UCSD 69 | UCSD -5.5 | CSUB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UC San Diego
16 games played
Straight up
11-5
69% wins
Against the spread
9-7
56% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs HCU | W 78-60 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 12 | @ FRES | W 78-73 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs IDHO | W 75-67 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 24 | vs TEM | W 91-76 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 25 | vs BRAD | W 87-77 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs TOW | W 87-73 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 2 | @ NEV | L 70-76 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ LBSU | W 80-74 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 13 | vs TULN | W 93-67 | -5.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 16 | @ LMU | W 67-57 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 19 | vs USD | L 80-82 | -12.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 1 | @ CP | L 65-67 | -8.5 | L −10.5 | 174.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 3 | vs HAW | W 83-73 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 8 | vs CSUF | L 71-88 | -13.5 | L −30.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 10 | @ UCR | W 69-66 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 15 | vs CSUN | L 79-84 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsHCU
HCUW 78-60
+10.5
12
@FRES
FRESW 78-73
+6.5
15
vsIDHO
IDHOW 75-67
+2.5
24
vsTEM
TEMW 91-76
+16.5
25
vsBRAD
BRADW 87-77
+11.5
26
vsTOW
TOWW 87-73
+12.5
2
@NEV
NEVL 70-76
−0.5
6
@LBSU
LBSUW 80-74
−2.5
13
vsTULN
TULNW 93-67
+20.5
16
@LMU
LMUW 67-57
+8.5
19
vsUSD
USDL 80-82
−14.5
1
@CP
CPL 65-67
−10.5
3
vsHAW
HAWW 83-73
+7.5
8
vsCSUF
CSUFL 71-88
−30.5
10
@UCR
UCRW 69-66
−7.5
15
vsCSUN
CSUNL 79-84
−12.5
covered 9didn’t cover 7avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsHCU
HCUW 78-60
−3.5
12
@FRES
FRESW 78-73
+2.5
15
vsIDHO
IDHOW 75-67
−6.5
24
vsTEM
TEMW 91-76
+18.5
25
vsBRAD
BRADW 87-77
+18.5
26
vsTOW
TOWW 87-73
+21.5
2
@NEV
NEVL 70-76
−3.5
6
@LBSU
LBSUW 80-74
+8.5
13
vsTULN
TULNW 93-67
+10.5
16
@LMU
LMUW 67-57
−26.5
19
vsUSD
USDL 80-82
+5.5
1
@CP
CPL 65-67
−42.5
3
vsHAW
HAWW 83-73
+7.5
8
vsCSUF
CSUFL 71-88
−7.5
10
@UCR
UCRW 69-66
−14.5
15
vsCSUN
CSUNL 79-84
+3.5
over 9under 7avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bakersfield
17 games played
Straight up
6-11
35% wins
Against the spread
8-9
47% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-10
41% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CAL | L 60-87 | +15.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 11 | vs WIU | W 74-58 | -7.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 14 | @ MISS | L 60-82 | +23.5 | W +1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 17 | @ PRST | L 80-93 | +8.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 22 | vs MVSU | W 86-70 | -21.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 25 | @ FSU | L 59-89 | +26.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 30 | vsFRES | W 76-71 | +10.5 | W +15.5 | 150.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 4 | @CSUN | L 66-87 | +5.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 6 | @ UCSB | L 84-109 | +12.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 11 | vs NDSU | L 69-80 | +7.5 | L −3.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs PEPP | L 62-70 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 23 | vsIDHO | W 64-63 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 1 | vs UCI | L 77-81 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 3 | @ UCD | W 81-79 | +9.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 8 | vsUCR | W 67-66 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 10 | @LBSU | L 75-81 | +6.5 | W +0.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 15 | vsUCSB | L 69-75 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CAL
CALL 60-87
−11.5
11
vsWIU
WIUW 74-58
+8.5
14
@MISS
MISSL 60-82
+1.5
17
@PRST
PRSTL 80-93
−4.5
22
vsMVSU
MVSUW 86-70
−5.5
25
@FSU
FSUL 59-89
−3.5
30
vsFRES
FRESW 76-71
+15.5
4
@CSUN
CSUNL 66-87
−15.5
6
@UCSB
UCSBL 84-109
−12.5
11
vsNDSU
NDSUL 69-80
−3.5
13
vsPEPP
PEPPL 62-70
−9.5
23
vsIDHO
IDHOW 64-63
+8.5
1
vsUCI
UCIL 77-81
+7.5
3
@UCD
UCDW 81-79
+11.5
8
vsUCR
UCRW 67-66
−2.5
10
@LBSU
LBSUL 75-81
+0.5
15
vsUCSB
UCSBL 69-75
+1.5
covered 8didn’t cover 9avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CAL
CALL 60-87
−0.5
11
vsWIU
WIUW 74-58
−9.5
14
@MISS
MISSL 60-82
+1.5
17
@PRST
PRSTL 80-93
+31.5
22
vsMVSU
MVSUW 86-70
+17.5
25
@FSU
FSUL 59-89
−11.5
30
vsFRES
FRESW 76-71
−3.5
4
@CSUN
CSUNL 66-87
−2.5
6
@UCSB
UCSBL 84-109
+47.5
11
vsNDSU
NDSUL 69-80
−0.5
13
vsPEPP
PEPPL 62-70
−15.5
23
vsIDHO
IDHOW 64-63
−23.5
1
vsUCI
UCIL 77-81
+14.5
3
@UCD
UCDW 81-79
+8.5
8
vsUCR
UCRW 67-66
−14.5
10
@LBSU
LBSUL 75-81
+13.5
15
vsUCSB
UCSBL 69-75
−0.5
over 7under 10avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UC San Diego
11-5 overall · 3-3 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs CSU Northridge79–84
- W@ UC Riverside69–66
- Lvs Fullerton71–88
- Wvs Hawai'i83–73
- L@ Cal Poly65–67
2 days since their last game.
Bakersfield
6-11 overall · 2-5 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Santa Barbara69–75
- L@ Long Beach St75–81
- Wvs UC Riverside67–66
- W@ UC Davis81–79
- Lvs UC Irvine77–81
2 days since their last game.