LionTree Arena · at UC San Diego · Conference game
Closing line
UCSD -13.5✓ CSUF covered by 30.5
UCSD -13.5✓ CSUF covered by 30.5Closing total166.5Under by 7.5
 CSUF | This season | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| 4-10 | Record | 10-3 |
| 7-6 | ATS | 9-4 |
| 9-4 | O/U | 8-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CSUF 74–88 UCSD · ✗ UCSD (90%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSUF | 35 | 53 | 88 |
| UCSD | 32 | 39 | 71 |
1st half: CSUF 35, UCSD 32 (CSUF by 3). The model had UCSD by 8.7 and a total of 75.7 (actual 67).
Team stats
| CSUF | UCSD | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-58 50% | Field goals | 22-55 40% |
| 15-29 52% | 3-pointers | 9-34 26% |
| 15-24 63% | Free throws | 18-20 90% |
| 28 6 off | Rebounds | 39 12 off |
| 21 | Assists | 12 |
| 11 | Steals | 1 |
| 2 | Blocks | 0 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 18 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| CSUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Williams G | 35 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 8-14 | 6-10 |
| Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro G | 33 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 3-7 | 1-5 |
| Joshua Ward G | 33 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Bryce Cofield G | 26 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Kendrick De Luna F | 25 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Landon Seaman F | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5-9 | 3-4 |
| Jaden Henderson G | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Bailey Nunn G | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| KJ Garris Jr. G | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Davis White, Yesan Warren, Karan Kolappa, Cam Smith, Nicholas Khatchikian, Matthew Quinlan, Ben Winker, Kidus Tilahun
| UCSD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Burke G | 31 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Leo Beath F | 29 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-10 | 0-7 |
| Tom Beattie G | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Emanuel Prospere II G | 24 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 4-10 | 1-5 |
| Bol Dengdit C | 23 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 5-9 | 3-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Alex Chaikin G | 27 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 4-11 | 2-5 |
| Hudson Mayes G | 19 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Trap Johnson G | 12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Dimitrije Vukicevic C | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cade Pendleton F | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jaden Vance F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tyson Dunn, Christopher Cox, Ryder Elisaldez, Yaqub Mir, Jasen Brooks
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCSD -13.5
ModelUCSD -14.8
Model edgeUCSD +1.3
L CSUF covered
Total
Market166.5
Model161.7
Model edgeUnder 4.8
W Under
Projected score
CSUF 73.5 · UCSD 88.2
CSUF 88 · UCSD 71
Win probability
UCSD 90%
1st half
Spread
UCSD -8.7
CSUF -3.0
Total
75.7
67 points
Projected score
CSUF 33.5 · UCSD 42.2
CSUF 35 · UCSD 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCSD -13.5
no move
CloseUCSD -13.5
No change since the open
Total
Open167.5
▼ 1
Close166.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
CSUF +675 · UCSD -1050
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCSD -13.5 · unchangedmodel UCSD -15
model UCSD -15
Opened 167.5 · closed 166.5 · moved 1 downmodel 161.5
model 161.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSUF | 4-6 40% | 6-3 67% | 7-2 78% |
| UCSD | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
CSUF 2–5 UCSDUCSD leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · UCSD has won the last 4 meetings · CSUF 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | CSUF 55 @ UCSD 100 | UCSD -26.5 | UCSD W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | UCSD 90 @ CSUF 51 | CSUF +12.5 | UCSD W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | CSUF 69 @ UCSD 76 | UCSD -10.5 | CSUF W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | UCSD 76 @ CSUF 58 | CSUF +2.5 | UCSD W |
| Feb 15, 2022-23 | CSUF 76 @ UCSD 73 | UCSD +2.5 | CSUF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Fullerton
14 games played
Straight up
4-10
29% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-4
69% overs · avg +8.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ WYO | L 82-92 | +15.5 | W +5.5 | 154.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 10 | @ CAL | L 65-93 | +22.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 15 | vs PAC | L 73-85 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 159.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 21 | @ PORT | L 85-103 | +6.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 22 | vs STMN | W 88-80 | +11.5 | W +19.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 23 | vs UNCO | L 93-97 | +8.5 | W +4.5 | 164.5 | O 190 |
| Nov 29 | vs PEPP | W 83-69 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 4 | vs CP | L 91-94 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 177.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 6 | @ HAW | L 59-69 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13 | @ DEN | W 105-86 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 165.5 | O 191 |
| Dec 21 | @ OKST | L 89-94 | +19.5 | W +14.5 | 176.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 28 | @ SMU | L 63-110 | +21.5 | L −25.5 | 170.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 1 | vs UCSB | W 95-84 | +3.5 | W +14.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs UCI | L 64-86 | +3.5 | L −18.5 | 160.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@WYO
WYOL 82-92
+5.5
10
@CAL
CALL 65-93
−5.5
15
vsPAC
PACL 73-85
−5.5
21
@PORT
PORTL 85-103
−11.5
22
vsSTMN
STMNW 88-80
+19.5
23
vsUNCO
UNCOL 93-97
+4.5
29
vsPEPP
PEPPW 83-69
+12.5
4
vsCP
CPL 91-94
−4.5
13
@DEN
DENW 105-86
+22.5
21
@OKST
OKSTL 89-94
+14.5
28
@SMU
SMUL 63-110
−25.5
1
vsUCSB
UCSBW 95-84
+14.5
3
vsUCI
UCIL 64-86
−18.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@WYO
WYOL 82-92
+19.5
10
@CAL
CALL 65-93
−4.5
15
vsPAC
PACL 73-85
−1.5
21
@PORT
PORTL 85-103
+23.5
22
vsSTMN
STMNW 88-80
+5.5
23
vsUNCO
UNCOL 93-97
+25.5
29
vsPEPP
PEPPW 83-69
−9.5
4
vsCP
CPL 91-94
+7.5
13
@DEN
DENW 105-86
+25.5
21
@OKST
OKSTL 89-94
+6.5
28
@SMU
SMUL 63-110
+2.5
1
vsUCSB
UCSBW 95-84
+23.5
3
vsUCI
UCIL 64-86
−10.5
over 9under 4avg +8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
UC San Diego
13 games played
Straight up
10-3
77% wins
Against the spread
9-4
69% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-5
62% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs HCU | W 78-60 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 12 | @ FRES | W 78-73 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs IDHO | W 75-67 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 24 | vs TEM | W 91-76 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 25 | vs BRAD | W 87-77 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs TOW | W 87-73 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 2 | @ NEV | L 70-76 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ LBSU | W 80-74 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 13 | vs TULN | W 93-67 | -5.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 16 | @ LMU | W 67-57 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 19 | vs USD | L 80-82 | -12.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 1 | @CP | L 65-67 | -8.5 | L −10.5 | 174.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 3 | vsHAW | W 83-73 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsHCU
HCUW 78-60
+10.5
12
@FRES
FRESW 78-73
+6.5
15
vsIDHO
IDHOW 75-67
+2.5
24
vsTEM
TEMW 91-76
+16.5
25
vsBRAD
BRADW 87-77
+11.5
26
vsTOW
TOWW 87-73
+12.5
2
@NEV
NEVL 70-76
−0.5
6
@LBSU
LBSUW 80-74
−2.5
13
vsTULN
TULNW 93-67
+20.5
16
@LMU
LMUW 67-57
+8.5
19
vsUSD
USDL 80-82
−14.5
1
@CP
CPL 65-67
−10.5
3
vsHAW
HAWW 83-73
+7.5
covered 9didn’t cover 4avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsHCU
HCUW 78-60
−3.5
12
@FRES
FRESW 78-73
+2.5
15
vsIDHO
IDHOW 75-67
−6.5
24
vsTEM
TEMW 91-76
+18.5
25
vsBRAD
BRADW 87-77
+18.5
26
vsTOW
TOWW 87-73
+21.5
2
@NEV
NEVL 70-76
−3.5
6
@LBSU
LBSUW 80-74
+8.5
13
vsTULN
TULNW 93-67
+10.5
16
@LMU
LMUW 67-57
−26.5
19
vsUSD
USDL 80-82
+5.5
1
@CP
CPL 65-67
−42.5
3
vsHAW
HAWW 83-73
+7.5
over 8under 5avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Fullerton
4-10 overall · 1-3 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UC Irvine64–86
- Wvs Santa Barbara95–84
- L@ SMU63–110
- L@ Oklahoma St89–94
- W@ Denver105–86
5 days since their last game.
UC San Diego
10-3 overall · 2-1 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Hawai'i83–73
- L@ Cal Poly65–67
- Lvs San Diego80–82
- W@ LMU67–57
- Wvs Tulane93–67
5 days since their last game.