Mott Athletics Center · at Cal Poly · Conference game
Closing line
UCSD -8.5✓ CP covered by 10.5
UCSD -8.5✓ CP covered by 10.5Closing total174.5Under by 42.5
| UCSD | This season | CP |
|---|---|---|
| 9-2 | Record | 3-9 |
| 8-3 | ATS | 5-7 |
| 7-4 | O/U | 8-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCSD 88–78 CP · ✗ UCSD (80%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSD | 42 | 23 | 65 |
| CP | 39 | 28 | 67 |
1st half: UCSD 42, CP 39 (UCSD by 3). The model had UCSD by 5.9 and a total of 77.8 (actual 81).
Team stats
| UCSD | CP | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-65 35% | Field goals | 23-66 35% |
| 8-32 25% | 3-pointers | 11-42 26% |
| 11-13 85% | Free throws | 10-14 71% |
| 44 15 off | Rebounds | 44 16 off |
| 12 | Assists | 10 |
| 8 | Steals | 6 |
| 1 | Blocks | 4 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| UCSD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Beath F | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2-11 | 1-6 |
| Tom Beattie G | 30 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3-9 | 0-5 |
| Bol Dengdit C | 24 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 5-10 | 0-1 |
| Aidan Burke G | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-7 |
| Emanuel Prospere II G | 19 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Hudson Mayes G | 27 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Alex Chaikin G | 24 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 5-13 | 5-10 |
| Jaden Vance F | 13 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Trap Johnson G | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Cade Pendleton, Jasen Brooks, Yaqub Mir, Christopher Cox, Tyson Dunn, Dimitrije Vukicevic, Ryder Elisaldez
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad Mousa G | 36 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 9-17 | 5-10 |
| Cayden Ward G | 33 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 2-11 | 1-7 |
| Peter Bandelj G | 32 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 5-12 | 3-8 |
| Jake Davis G | 31 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2-9 | 0-4 |
| Guzman Vasilic G | 29 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-10 | 2-10 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Luka Tarlac G | 18 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Ali Assran F | 16 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Austin Goode F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jess Esso Essis, Aaron Price Jr., Jackson Mosley, Troy Plumtree, Braden Freeman, Jason Scott, Eric Brown, Kieran Elliott
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCSD -8.5
ModelUCSD -9.6
Model edgeUCSD +1.1
L CP covered
Total
Market174.5
Model166.3
Model edgeUnder 8.2
W Under
Projected score
UCSD 87.9 · CP 78.3
UCSD 65 · CP 67
Win probability
UCSD 80%
1st half
Spread
UCSD -5.9
UCSD -3.0
Total
77.8
81 points
Projected score
UCSD 41.9 · CP 36
UCSD 42 · CP 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCSD -8.5
no move
CloseUCSD -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open169.5
▲ 5
Close174.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
UCSD -410 · CP +320
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCSD -8.5 · unchangedmodel UCSD -9.5
model UCSD -9.5
Opened 169.5 · closed 174.5 · moved 5 upmodel 166.5
model 166.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSD | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
| CP | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
UCSD 5–2 CPUCSD leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · UCSD has won the last 5 meetings · UCSD 4-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2024-25 | UCSD 81 @ CP 67 | CP +12.5 | UCSD W |
| Jan 9, 2024-25 | CP 68 @ UCSD 95 | UCSD -14.5 | UCSD W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | CP 87 @ UCSD 92 | UCSD -17.5 | CP W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | UCSD 86 @ CP 61 | CP +11.5 | UCSD W |
| Jan 19, 2022-23 | UCSD 71 @ CP 64 | CP -3.5 | UCSD W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UC San Diego
11 games played
Straight up
9-2
82% wins
Against the spread
8-3
73% covers · avg +6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-4
64% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs HCU | W 78-60 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 12 | @ FRES | W 78-73 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs IDHO | W 75-67 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 24 | vs TEM | W 91-76 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 25 | vs BRAD | W 87-77 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs TOW | W 87-73 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 2 | @ NEV | L 70-76 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ LBSU | W 80-74 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 13 | vs TULN | W 93-67 | -5.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 16 | @ LMU | W 67-57 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 19 | vs USD | L 80-82 | -12.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsHCU
HCUW 78-60
+10.5
12
@FRES
FRESW 78-73
+6.5
15
vsIDHO
IDHOW 75-67
+2.5
24
vsTEM
TEMW 91-76
+16.5
25
vsBRAD
BRADW 87-77
+11.5
26
vsTOW
TOWW 87-73
+12.5
2
@NEV
NEVL 70-76
−0.5
6
@LBSU
LBSUW 80-74
−2.5
13
vsTULN
TULNW 93-67
+20.5
16
@LMU
LMUW 67-57
+8.5
19
vsUSD
USDL 80-82
−14.5
covered 8didn’t cover 3avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsHCU
HCUW 78-60
−3.5
12
@FRES
FRESW 78-73
+2.5
15
vsIDHO
IDHOW 75-67
−6.5
24
vsTEM
TEMW 91-76
+18.5
25
vsBRAD
BRADW 87-77
+18.5
26
vsTOW
TOWW 87-73
+21.5
2
@NEV
NEVL 70-76
−3.5
6
@LBSU
LBSUW 80-74
+8.5
13
vsTULN
TULNW 93-67
+10.5
16
@LMU
LMUW 67-57
−26.5
19
vsUSD
USDL 80-82
+5.5
over 7under 4avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cal Poly
12 games played
Straight up
3-9
25% wins
Against the spread
5-7
42% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-4
67% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ USC | L 64-94 | +24.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 8 | @ SEA | W 73-71 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 12 | @ CSU | L 79-93 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 165.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 14 | @ MONT | L 82-90 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 20 | @ UTAH | W 92-85 | +14.5 | W +21.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | @ NAU | L 87-93 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs SEMO | L 68-84 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 170.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 4 | @ CSUF | W 94-91 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 177.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 6 | vs UCR | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | vs MTST | L 80-83 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 19 | @ UCLA | L 87-108 | +24.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 21 | vsIDHO | L 80-83 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | U 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+4.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
−0.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+21.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
−7.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−14.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+4.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
−9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
−0.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+3.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−1.5
covered 5didn’t cover 7avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+6.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
+3.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+9.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
+15.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−18.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+7.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
+9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
+3.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+33.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−4.5
over 8under 4avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UC San Diego
9-2 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs San Diego80–82
- W@ LMU67–57
- Wvs Tulane93–67
- W@ Long Beach St80–74
- L@ Nevada70–76
A week or more of rest.
Cal Poly
3-9 overall · 1-1 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Idaho80–83
- L@ UCLA87–108
- Lvs Montana St80–83
- Lvs UC Riverside84–88
- W@ Fullerton94–91
A week or more of rest.