Swisher Gymnasium · at Jacksonville · Conference game
Closing line
LIP -3.5✓ JAX covered by 8.5
LIP -3.5✓ JAX covered by 8.5Closing total142.5Under by 7.5
| LIP | This season | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 12-7 | Record | 6-13 |
| 11-8 | ATS | 8-11 |
| 11-8 | O/U | 7-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LIP 74–71 JAX · ✗ LIP (61%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIP | 27 | 38 | 65 |
| JAX | 40 | 30 | 70 |
1st half: LIP 27, JAX 40 (JAX by 13). The model had LIP by 2.0 and a total of 67.5 (actual 67).
Team stats
| LIP | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-55 47% | Field goals | 26-53 49% |
| 6-20 30% | 3-pointers | 6-18 33% |
| 7-10 70% | Free throws | 12-15 80% |
| 25 5 off | Rebounds | 29 8 off |
| 16 | Assists | 9 |
| 2 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| LIP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Esmeraldo G | 35 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 5-8 | 1-2 |
| Grant Asman F | 31 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Charlie Williams C | 31 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 10-16 | 2-4 |
| Titas Sargiunas F | 23 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2-8 | 1-3 |
| Or Ashkenazi F | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ross Candelino G | 25 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| Ethan Duncan G | 22 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Kennedy Okpara F | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Cole Middleton F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kellan Boylan F | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Josh Scott, Devyn Martin, Luke Jack, Luke Carter, Miles White, Logan Suber
| JAX | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wood G | 33 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 6-11 | 2-5 |
| Evan Sterck G | 33 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| Donovan Rivers F | 30 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7-11 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Jones G | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Jason Thirdkill Jr. F | 25 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chris Lockett Jr. G | 22 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Allen Udemadu F | 15 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Jordon F | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Chris Arias G | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Charles Caporaso, Roman Loux, Michael Harper Jr., Enrico Borio, Simon Wheeler, Lamont Jackson, Anakin Brown, Tito Deng
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLIP -3.5
ModelLIP -3.2
Model edgeJAX +0.3
W JAX covered
Total
Market142.5
Model144.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
L Under
Projected score
LIP 73.7 · JAX 70.5
LIP 65 · JAX 70
Win probability
LIP 61%
1st half
Spread
LIP -2.0
JAX -13.0
Total
67.5
67 points
Projected score
LIP 34.8 · JAX 32.8
LIP 27 · JAX 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLIP -4.5
1 → JAX
CloseLIP -3.5
1 pt toward JAX
Total
Open140.5
▲ 2
Close142.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
LIP -192 · JAX +160
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LIP -4.5 · closed LIP -3.5 · moved 1 toward JAXmodel LIP -3
model LIP -3
Opened 140.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 2 upmodel 144
model 144
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIP | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| JAX | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
LIP 4–2 JAXLIP leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · LIP has won the last 4 meetings · LIP 2-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2025-26 | JAX 57 @ LIP 76 | LIP -12.5 | LIP W |
| Jan 2, 2024-25 | LIP 70 @ JAX 65 | JAX +4.5 | LIP W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | JAX 82 @ LIP 84 | LIP -11.5 | JAX W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | JAX 59 @ LIP 62 | LIP -4.5 | JAX W |
| Jan 7, 2022-23 | LIP 44 @ JAX 51 | JAX -3.5 | JAX W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Lipscomb
19 games played
Straight up
12-7
63% wins
Against the spread
11-8
58% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-8
58% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ VAN | L 61-105 | +26.5 | L −17.5 | 154.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 9 | @ MER | L 77-92 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 11 | @ UNCA | L 64-69 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 19 | @ BEL | L 68-75 | +12.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 22 | vs WCU | W 83-62 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 151.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 26 | @ MRSH | W 90-67 | +7.5 | W +30.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 29 | @ SEMO | W 88-77 | +3.5 | W +14.5 | 153.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 3 | vs TNTC | W 83-80 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 7 | vs AAMU | W 92-58 | -11.5 | W +22.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 16 | @ DUKE | L 73-97 | +32.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 29 | @ CIN | L 62-89 | +13.5 | L −13.5 | 150.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 1 | vsJAX | W 76-57 | -12.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 3 | vs UNF | W 82-74 | -18.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 8 | @ STET | L 83-91 | -11.5 | L −19.5 | 150.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 10 | @ FGCU | W 84-77 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 157.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 15 | vs BELL | W 81-71 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 17 | vs APSU | W 82-78 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 22 | vsSTET | W 79-74 | -15.5 | L −10.5 | 157.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 23 | vsFGCU | W 86-71 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@VAN
VANL 61-105
−17.5
9
@MER
MERL 77-92
−11.5
11
@UNCA
UNCAL 64-69
+1.5
19
@BEL
BELL 68-75
+5.5
22
vsWCU
WCUW 83-62
+15.5
26
@MRSH
MRSHW 90-67
+30.5
29
@SEMO
SEMOW 88-77
+14.5
3
vsTNTC
TNTCW 83-80
−7.5
7
vsAAMU
AAMUW 92-58
+22.5
16
@DUKE
DUKEL 73-97
+8.5
29
@CIN
CINL 62-89
−13.5
1
vsJAX
JAXW 76-57
+6.5
3
vsUNF
UNFW 82-74
−10.5
8
@STET
STETL 83-91
−19.5
10
@FGCU
FGCUW 84-77
+9.5
15
vsBELL
BELLW 81-71
−1.5
17
vsAPSU
APSUW 82-78
+1.5
22
vsSTET
STETW 79-74
−10.5
23
vsFGCU
FGCUW 86-71
+9.5
covered 11didn’t cover 8avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@VAN
VANL 61-105
+11.5
9
@MER
MERL 77-92
+11.5
11
@UNCA
UNCAL 64-69
−25.5
19
@BEL
BELL 68-75
−15.5
22
vsWCU
WCUW 83-62
−6.5
26
@MRSH
MRSHW 90-67
−0.5
29
@SEMO
SEMOW 88-77
+11.5
3
vsTNTC
TNTCW 83-80
+10.5
7
vsAAMU
AAMUW 92-58
+3.5
16
@DUKE
DUKEL 73-97
+18.5
29
@CIN
CINL 62-89
+0.5
1
vsJAX
JAXW 76-57
−14.5
3
vsUNF
UNFW 82-74
−16.5
8
@STET
STETL 83-91
+23.5
10
@FGCU
FGCUW 84-77
+3.5
15
vsBELL
BELLW 81-71
−2.5
17
vsAPSU
APSUW 82-78
+4.5
22
vsSTET
STETW 79-74
−4.5
23
vsFGCU
FGCUW 86-71
+3.5
over 11under 8avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Jacksonville
19 games played
Straight up
6-13
32% wins
Against the spread
8-11
42% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-12
37% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ MIA | L 69-86 | +18.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ HPU | L 64-85 | +17.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 15 | @ VMI | W 69-67 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 18 | @ GMU | L 57-79 | +16.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs BCU | W 69-64 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 25 | vs PAC | L 53-68 | +2.5 | L −12.5 | 135.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 2 | vs FAMU | W 85-82 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 6 | @ FIU | L 65-88 | +5.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 14 | @ TA&M | L 75-112 | +26.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
| Dec 17 | @FAMU | L 65-72 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 22 | @ FSU | L 63-87 | +23.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 1 | @LIP | L 57-76 | +12.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 3 | @APSU | L 68-71 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 140.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 8 | vs QUC | L 51-77 | +4.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 10 | vs WGA | W 75-43 | -1.5 | W +30.5 | 141.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 15 | @ CARK | L 60-62 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 17 | @ UNA | W 90-68 | +1.5 | W +23.5 | 133.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 22 | vsBELL | L 70-77 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 138.5 | O 147 |
| Jan 24 | vs EKU | W 81-76 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@MIA
MIAL 69-86
+1.5
11
@HPU
HPUL 64-85
−3.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 69-67
+0.5
18
@GMU
GMUL 57-79
−5.5
24
vsBCU
BCUW 69-64
+8.5
25
vsPAC
PACL 53-68
−12.5
2
vsFAMU
FAMUW 85-82
−7.5
6
@FIU
FIUL 65-88
−17.5
14
@TA&M
TA&ML 75-112
−10.5
17
@FAMU
FAMUL 65-72
−10.5
22
@FSU
FSUL 63-87
−0.5
1
@LIP
LIPL 57-76
−6.5
3
@APSU
APSUL 68-71
+7.5
8
vsQUC
QUCL 51-77
−21.5
10
vsWGA
WGAW 75-43
+30.5
15
@CARK
CARKL 60-62
+5.5
17
@UNA
UNAW 90-68
+23.5
22
vsBELL
BELLL 70-77
−11.5
24
vsEKU
EKUW 81-76
+3.5
covered 8didn’t cover 11avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@MIA
MIAL 69-86
+12.5
11
@HPU
HPUL 64-85
−7.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 69-67
−15.5
18
@GMU
GMUL 57-79
−0.5
24
vsBCU
BCUW 69-64
−10.5
25
vsPAC
PACL 53-68
−14.5
2
vsFAMU
FAMUW 85-82
+28.5
6
@FIU
FIUL 65-88
+7.5
14
@TA&M
TA&ML 75-112
+39.5
17
@FAMU
FAMUL 65-72
−2.5
22
@FSU
FSUL 63-87
−9.5
1
@LIP
LIPL 57-76
−14.5
3
@APSU
APSUL 68-71
−1.5
8
vsQUC
QUCL 51-77
−26.5
10
vsWGA
WGAW 75-43
−23.5
15
@CARK
CARKL 60-62
−14.5
17
@UNA
UNAW 90-68
+24.5
22
vsBELL
BELLL 70-77
+8.5
24
vsEKU
EKUW 81-76
+14.5
over 7under 12avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Lipscomb
12-7 overall · 7-1 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs FGCU86–71
- Wvs Stetson79–74
- Wvs Austin Peay82–78
- Wvs Bellarmine81–71
- W@ FGCU84–77
6 days since their last game.
Jacksonville
6-13 overall · 3-5 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs E Kentucky81–76
- Lvs Bellarmine70–77
- W@ North Alabama90–68
- L@ C Arkansas60–62
- Wvs West Georgia75–43
5 days since their last game.