Moody Center · at Texas
Closing line
TEX -3.5✓ UVA covered by 22.5
TEX -3.5✓ UVA covered by 22.5Closing total154.5Over by 2.5
 UVA | This season | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 4-3 | ATS | 4-3 |
| 3-4 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVA 76–80 TEX · ✗ TEX (65%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 46 | 42 | 88 |
| TEX | 27 | 42 | 69 |
1st half: UVA 46, TEX 27 (UVA by 19). The model had TEX by 2.6 and a total of 73.0 (actual 73).
Team stats
| UVA | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-52 54% | Field goals | 24-59 41% |
| 12-24 50% | 3-pointers | 4-19 21% |
| 20-29 69% | Free throws | 17-25 68% |
| 34 7 off | Rebounds | 35 13 off |
| 18 | Assists | 7 |
| 5 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thijs De Ridder F | 28 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Dallin Hall G | 27 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Sam Lewis G | 26 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-4 |
| Malik Thomas G | 18 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 17 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 6-7 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 21 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 4-8 | 1-2 |
| Chance Mallory G | 20 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Devin Tillis F | 20 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Jacari White G | 14 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 3-3 |
| Carter Lang F | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Elijah Gertrude G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Martin Carrere G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Desmond Roberts G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Owen Odom G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Silas Barksdale
| TEX | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dailyn Swain G | 32 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 6-13 | 1-3 |
| Jordan Pope G | 27 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-5 |
| Tramon Mark G | 24 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-4 |
| Matas Vokietaitis C | 23 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
| Camden Heide F | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Simeon Wilcher G | 21 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-4 |
| Chendall Weaver G | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
| Lassina Traore F | 19 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nic Codie F | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Declan Duru Jr. F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Anthon McDermott, Brandon Taylor, John Clark, Lewis Obiorah, Cole Bott
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTEX -3.5
ModelTEX -4.5
Model edgeTEX +1.0
L UVA covered
Total
Market154.5
Model156.0
Model edgeOver 1.5
W Over
Projected score
UVA 75.8 · TEX 80.3
UVA 88 · TEX 69
Win probability
TEX 65%
1st half
Spread
TEX -2.6
UVA -19.0
Total
73.0
73 points
Projected score
UVA 35.2 · TEX 37.8
UVA 46 · TEX 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTEX -2.5
1 → TEX
CloseTEX -3.5
1 pt toward TEX
Total
Open150.5
▲ 4
Close154.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
UVA +145 · TEX -175
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TEX -2.5 · closed TEX -3.5 · moved 1 toward TEXmodel TEX -4.5
model TEX -4.5
Opened 150.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 4 upmodel 156
model 156
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVAlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 4-3 57% | 3-4 43% |
| TEXlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% | 4-3 57% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Virginia
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-4
43% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
over 3under 4avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs DUKE | L 60-75 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs LAF | W 97-60 | -25.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs FDU | W 93-58 | -31.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs KC | W 71-55 | -31.5 | L −15.5 | 159.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 18 | vsRID | W 99-65 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs ASU | L 86-87 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 26 | vs NCSU | W 102-97 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−4.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+11.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
+3.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−15.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+3.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
−7.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+6.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−18.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+3.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
−7.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−33.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+20.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
+19.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+37.5
over 4under 3avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Virginia
6-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Queens University Royals94–69
- Lvs Butler73–80
- Wvs Northwestern83–78
- Wvs Marshall104–78
- Wvs Hampton91–53
5 days since their last game.
Texas
5-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs NC State102–97
- Lvs Arizona St86–87
- Wvs Rider99–65
- Wvs Kansas City71–55
- Wvs FDU93–58
A week or more of rest.