Neville Arena · at Auburn
Closing line
AUB -5.5✓ AUB covered by 4.5
AUB -5.5✓ AUB covered by 4.5Closing total162.5Under by 6.5
 NCSU | This season | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 6-2 |
| 4-3 | ATS | 6-2 |
| 5-2 | O/U | 7-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCSU 81–91 AUB · ✓ AUB (81%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 35 | 38 | 73 |
| AUB | 41 | 42 | 83 |
1st half: NCSU 35, AUB 41 (AUB by 6). The model had AUB by 5.8 and a total of 80.3 (actual 76).
Team stats
| NCSU | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-64 41% | Field goals | 26-44 59% |
| 10-30 33% | 3-pointers | 12-22 55% |
| 11-13 85% | Free throws | 19-22 86% |
| 22 8 off | Rebounds | 35 5 off |
| 14 | Assists | 10 |
| 14 | Steals | 3 |
| 2 | Blocks | 9 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 20 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrion Williams F | 33 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 4-11 | 1-5 |
| Tre Holloman G | 29 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 5-11 | 4-9 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 28 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 8-12 | 2-3 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 28 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 26 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Matt Able G | 23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-11 | 1-6 |
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Alyn Breed G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Scottie Ebube C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jayme Kontuniemi, Zymicah Wilkins, Jordan Snell, Jerry Deng, Colt Langdon
| AUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Overton G | 38 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 8-13 | 6-9 |
| Keyshawn Hall F | 36 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 9-14 | 5-7 |
| Tahaad Pettiford G | 32 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Elyjah Freeman G | 18 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| KeShawn Murphy F | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sebastian Williams-Adams F | 27 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Filip Jovic C | 24 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Magwood G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Blake Muschalek G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Drake Cardwell, Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Emeka Opurum, Abdul Bashir, CJ Williams, Joah Shay, Simon Walker, Reed Trapp
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketAUB -5.5
ModelAUB -9.8
Model edgeAUB +4.3
W AUB covered
Total
Market162.5
Model171.7
Model edgeOver 9.2
L Under
Projected score
NCSU 80.9 · AUB 90.8
NCSU 73 · AUB 83
Win probability
AUB 81%
1st half
Spread
AUB -5.8
AUB -6.0
Total
80.3
76 points
Projected score
NCSU 37.3 · AUB 43
NCSU 35 · AUB 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAUB -6.5
1 → NCSU
CloseAUB -5.5
1 pt toward NCSU
Total
Open165.5
▼ 3
Close162.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
NCSU +210 · AUB -258
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AUB -6.5 · closed AUB -5.5 · moved 1 toward NCSUmodel AUB -10
model AUB -10
Opened 165.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 3 downmodel 171.5
model 171.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSUlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% |
| AUBlast 8 | 6-2 75% | 6-2 75% | 7-1 88% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC State
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +15.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
over 5under 2avg +15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Auburn
8 games played
Straight up
6-2
75% wins
Against the spread
6-2
75% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-1
88% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BCU | W 95-90 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 153.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 6 | vs MRMK | W 95-57 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 11 | vs WOF | W 93-62 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 16 | vs HOU | L 72-73 | +7.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 19 | vs JKST | W 112-66 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORE | W 84-73 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs MICH | L 72-102 | +4.5 | L −25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs SJU | W 85-74 | +4.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
−19.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+14.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+3.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+6.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+15.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+6.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
−25.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
+15.5
covered 6didn’t cover 2avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
+31.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+3.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+2.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+4.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+21.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+1.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
+10.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
−7.5
over 7under 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC State
5-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Texas97–102
- Wvs Boise St81–70
- Lvs Seton Hall74–85
- Wvs VCU85–79
- Wvs UNC Greensboro110–64
A week or more of rest.
Auburn
6-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs St John's85–74
- Lvs Michigan72–102
- Wvs Oregon84–73
- Wvs Jackson St112–66
- Lvs Houston72–73
A week or more of rest.