When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
10 games · 2023 · Baylor · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 22% of games.
All 10 games
2023 · Baylor · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
WVU -12 | 54.5 | 7415565 | Q3 | BAY Q3 Lead lost |
34–31 |
2023 · Week 12 |
TCU -13 | 61 | 7244559 | U | TCU Q4 | 17–42 |
2023 · Week 11 |
KSU -21 | 55 | 28487184 | Q3 | KSU Q2 | 25–59 |
2023 · Week 10 |
BAY -2 | 58.5 | 07173449 | U | HOU Q1 | 25–24 |
2023 · Week 9 |
ISU -3 | 47 | 7233948 | Q4 | ISU Q1 | 30–18 |
2023 · Week 8 |
CIN -2.5 | 51.5 | 3344361 | Q4 | BAY Q1 | 32–29 |
2023 · Week 5 |
UCF -8 | 56 | 28354571 | Q4 | BAY Q4 Lead lost |
36–35 |
2023 · Week 4 |
TEX -17.5 | 49.5 | 10344444 | U | TEX Q2 | 38–6 |
 LIU @  BAY2023 · Week 3 |
BAY -44 | 54 | 7233037 | U | LIU Q1 | 7–30 |
2023 · Week 2 |
UTAH -7 | 46.5 | 0131933 | U | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–13 |
WVU
TCU
KSU
HOU
ISU
CIN
UCF
TEX
UTAHWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 40% 4
Q2 20% 2
Q3 10% 1
Q4 20% 2
OT 0% 0
Push 10% 1
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 60% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 70% and covered 70% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.