UTSA Convocation Center · at UTSA
Closing line
USA -1.5✓ USA covered by 22.5
USA -1.5✓ USA covered by 22.5Closing total141.5Under by 1.5
| USA | This season | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 2-3 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USA 72–71 UTSA · ✓ USA (51%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 44 | 38 | 82 |
| UTSA | 31 | 27 | 58 |
1st half: USA 44, UTSA 31 (USA by 13). The model had USA by 0.4 and a total of 67.1 (actual 75).
Team stats
| USA | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-65 45% | Field goals | 21-79 27% |
| 8-22 36% | 3-pointers | 14-56 25% |
| 16-19 84% | Free throws | 2-2 100% |
| 53 15 off | Rebounds | 39 18 off |
| 16 | Assists | 16 |
| 6 | Steals | 8 |
| 4 | Blocks | 9 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 12 |
| 19 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| USA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brady F | 29 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Adam Olsen F | 29 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 6-13 | 5-11 |
| Peyton Law F | 27 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Chaze Harris G | 25 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 6-12 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Cooper G | 24 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5-13 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brian Hawthorne G | 21 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune G | 15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-3 |
| Stephen Williams F | 13 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| JJ Wheat G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| John Broom G | 7 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Maxwell Land, Samuel Shoptaw, Desmond Williams
| UTSA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Hayes G | 33 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 5-20 | 5-20 |
| Jamir Simpson G | 32 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 6-16 | 5-12 |
| Austin Nunez G | 29 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-13 | 3-9 |
| Kaidon Rayfield F | 25 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Matheo Coffi F | 20 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brent Moss G | 23 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2-15 | 1-12 |
| Macaleab Rich G | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Baboucarr Njie F | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mo Njie C | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Daniel Akitoby F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jackson Fazande, Vasean Allette, Stanley Borden, Pierce Spencer, LJ Brown
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSA -1.5
ModelUSA -0.4
Model edgeUTSA +1.1
L USA covered
Total
Market141.5
Model143.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
L Under
Projected score
USA 71.8 · UTSA 71.4
USA 82 · UTSA 58
Win probability
USA 51%
1st half
Spread
USA -0.4
USA -13.0
Total
67.1
75 points
Projected score
USA 33.7 · UTSA 33.4
USA 44 · UTSA 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSA -2.5
1 → UTSA
CloseUSA -1.5
1 pt toward UTSA
Total
Open137.5
▲ 4
Close141.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USA -2.5 · closed USA -1.5 · moved 1 toward UTSAmodel USA -0.5
model USA -0.5
Opened 137.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 4 upmodel 143
model 143
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USAlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% |
| UTSAlast 5 | 2-3 40% | 2-3 40% | 2-3 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
South Alabama
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
TOL
TOLW 76-74
+4.5
6
vs
ALCN
ALCNW 76-70
−12.5
13
vs
CMU
CMUW 66-64
−3.5
15
vs
COPP
COPPW 72-62
−8.5
19
@
JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+8.5
21
@
UAB
UABL 72-80
−0.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
−0.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
+4.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−12.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
+0.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+0.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
+2.5
over 4under 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
UTSA
5 games played
Straight up
2-3
40% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −10.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vs
SIUE
SIUEL 60-77
−23.5
12
@
TXST
TXSTL 69-80
−8.5
15
@
DEN
DENW 84-79
+9.5
24
vs
ACU
ACUL 50-61
−8.5
25
vs
GASO
GASOW 77-64
+16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsSIUE
SIUEL 60-77
−16.5
12
@TXST
TXSTL 69-80
+1.5
15
@DEN
DENW 84-79
+14.5
24
vsACU
ACUL 50-61
−33.5
25
vsGASO
GASOW 77-64
−19.5
over 2under 3avg −10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
South Alabama
5-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UAB72–80
- W@ Jax State71–65
- Wvs Coppin St72–62
- Wvs C Michigan66–64
- Wvs Alcorn St76–70
A week or more of rest.
UTSA
2-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs GA Southern77–64
- Lvs Abilene Chrstn50–61
- W@ Denver84–79
- L@ Texas St69–80
- Lvs SIUE60–77
5 days since their last game.