Alico Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
TROY -21.5✓ SFPA covered by 11.5
TROY -21.5✓ SFPA covered by 11.5Closing total151.5Under by 13.5
 SFPA | This season | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 0-5 | ATS | 4-3 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SFPA 70–90 TROY · ✓ TROY (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFPA | 33 | 31 | 64 |
| TROY | 28 | 46 | 74 |
1st half: SFPA 33, TROY 28 (SFPA by 5). The model had TROY by 12.0 and a total of 75.0 (actual 61).
Team stats
| SFPA | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-55 40% | Field goals | 25-54 46% |
| 8-22 36% | 3-pointers | 5-23 22% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 19-30 63% |
| 32 11 off | Rebounds | 38 14 off |
| 8 | Assists | 11 |
| 9 | Steals | 11 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 22 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 22 | Fouls | 20 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| SFPA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skylar Wicks G | 38 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 7-15 | 2-5 |
| Victor Payne Jr. G | 33 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 5-10 | 3-8 |
| Zion Russell G | 32 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-2 |
| Ahmad Harrison G | 28 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Gestin Liberis F | 26 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ralph Martino Jr. G | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Cameron Tweedy F | 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Brandon Russell G | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| KJ Swain Jr. G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Melvin Weaver III, Paris Papadatos, Kam Wylie, Kofi Asare, Brandon Rabish, Trey Weiand, Carson Rhodes, Ryen Gresko, Chris Moncrief
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd F | 34 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 5-8 | 3-5 |
| Cooper Campbell G | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 29 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 5-13 | 1-6 |
| Theo Seng F | 25 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Kerrington Kiel F | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Victor Valdes F | 23 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 6-11 | 0-2 |
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 18 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Austin Cross G | 17 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Javen Colbert G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Corbin Green F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Hikaru Awata, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Emmanuel Clarton, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTROY -21.5
ModelTROY -20.2
Model edgeSFPA +1.3
W SFPA covered
Total
Market151.5
Model160.2
Model edgeOver 8.7
L Under
Projected score
SFPA 70 · TROY 90.2
SFPA 64 · TROY 74
Win probability
TROY 96%
1st half
Spread
TROY -12.0
SFPA -5.0
Total
75.0
61 points
Projected score
SFPA 31.5 · TROY 43.5
SFPA 33 · TROY 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSFPA -21.5
43 → TROY
CloseTROY -21.5
43 pts toward TROY
Total
Open151.5
no move
Close151.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
SFPA +1500 · TROY -3600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SFPA -21.5 · closed TROY -21.5 · moved 43 toward TROYmodel TROY -20
model TROY -20
Opened 151.5 · unchangedmodel 160
model 160
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFPAlast 5 | 0-5 0% | 0-5 0% | 2-3 40% |
| TROYlast 7 | 3-4 43% | 4-3 57% | 4-3 57% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Saint Francis Red Wolves
5 games played
Straight up
0-5
0% wins
Against the spread
0-5
0% covers · avg −8.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
OU
OUL 66-102
−4.5
6
@
TCU
TCUL 63-104
−13.5
11
vs
MSM
MSML 66-74
−1.5
18
@
LEH
LEHL 62-79
−6.5
24
vs
BEL
BELL 57-94
−15.5
covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OU
OUL 66-102
+18.5
6
@TCU
TCUL 63-104
+13.5
11
vsMSM
MSML 66-74
−9.5
18
@LEH
LEHL 62-79
−10.5
24
vsBEL
BELL 57-94
−6.5
over 2under 3avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Troy
7 games played
Straight up
3-4
43% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +23.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@
FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
14
@
LMU
LMUL 63-74
−6.5
16
@
CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
−13.5
18
@
SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+15.5
20
@
USC
USCL 106-107
+17.5
24
vs
TOL
TOLL 68-75
−9.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−3.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
+21.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+77.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+53.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−16.5
over 4under 3avg +23.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Saint Francis Red Wolves
0-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Belmont57–94
- L@ Lehigh62–79
- Lvs Mount St Marys66–74
- L@ TCU63–104
- L@ Oklahoma66–102
2 days since their last game.
Troy
3-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Toledo68–75
- L@ USC106–107
- W@ San Diego St108–107
- L@ CSU Northridge85–94
- L@ LMU63–74
2 days since their last game.