Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at Indiana State Sycamores: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 7, 1:00 PM ETHulman Center · at Indiana St

#304USISouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles55final

Final

#207INSTIndiana St77▲ winner

Closing lineINST -11.5✓ INST covered by 10.5

Closing total158.5Under by 26.5

Season records: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles and Indiana St
USI	This season	INST
1-6	Record	3-4
3-4	ATS	4-3
3-4	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USI 71–83 INST · ✓ INST (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USI	27	28	55
INST	35	42	77

1st half: USI 27, INST 35 (INST by 8). The model had INST by 6.8 and a total of 72.2 (actual 62).

Team stats

USI		INST
19-55 35%	Field goals	30-61 49%
7-23 30%	3-pointers	8-22 36%
10-13 77%	Free throws	9-10 90%
30 6 off	Rebounds	39 8 off
9	Assists	20
7	Steals	6
6	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	9
9	Fouls	12
18	Points in paint	44
9	Fast-break points	5

Players

USI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kaden Brown G	34	13	5	1	4-11	3-10
Cardell Bailey G	31	13	3	1	4-13	2-6
Ola Ajiboye F	30	5	6	0	2-6	0-0
Ismail Habib G	30	7	4	2	3-9	1-4
Tolu Samuels F	24	2	4	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Sheridan Sharp G	23	10	4	4	3-8	0-1
Devin Curtis F	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Braxton Jones G	7	5	0	0	2-5	1-2
Steven Clay G	7	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Ben Ezeagu F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cayden Gehlhausen G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Alem Fejzic G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Josiah Dunham, Trey Thomas, Amaree Brown

INST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ian Scott F	31	16	8	6	7-10	0-0
Xavier Hall G	30	11	2	3	5-12	1-4
Camp Wagner G	30	15	3	2	4-10	3-7
Sterling Young G	19	7	0	0	3-5	1-3
Markus Harding C	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Enel St. Bernard F	21	10	8	3	5-8	0-0
Bruno Alocen G	20	8	4	0	2-5	1-4
Jo Van Buggenhout G	17	3	1	5	1-1	1-1
Jayan Walker F	13	3	2	0	1-6	1-3
Derek Vorst C	10	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Cooper Bean G	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Hunter Harding C	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Sivert Waerstad Nordheim G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Caden Huttenlocker, Zyair Greene, Martin Kaupanger

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	INST -11.5	INST -11.5	—	INST covered
Total	158.5	154.3	Under 4.2	W Under
Projected score	—	USI 71.4 · INST 82.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	INST -6.8	INST -8.0
1H total	72.2	62
1H projected score	USI 32.7 · INST 39.5	USI 27 · INST 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USI LWWWL	3-4	43%	1-3	3-4
INST LWWWL	4-3	57%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: USI away, as underdog; INST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USI UOOUO	3-4	43%	1-6
INST UUUOO	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USIlast 7	1-6 14%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
INSTlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

USI 2–1 INSTUSI leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · USI 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 25, 2024-25	INST 77 @ USI 87	USI +2.5	USI W
Dec 9, 2023-24	USI 54 @ INST 98	INST -21.5	INST W
Dec 11, 2022-23	INST 85 @ USI 88	USI +6.5	USI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@BTLR	L 58-88	+22.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 7	vsVMI	L 74-78	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 12	@SDAK	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 20	vsUIW	L 81-87	+9.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsUIC	L 73-84	+11.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@VAL	W 64-56	+9.5	W +17.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 3	@WMU	L 74-88	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−7.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−7.5

UIW

L 81-87

+3.5

UIC

L 73-84

+0.5

VAL

W 64-56

+17.5

WMU

L 74-88

−8.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−10.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−1.5

UIW

L 81-87

+22.5

UIC

L 73-84

+3.5

VAL

W 64-56

−30.5

WMU

L 74-88

+11.5

over 3under 4avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana St

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −12.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 22	vsBALL	W 70-52	-7.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 26	@LT	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsALCN	L 74-81	-12.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

BALL

W 70-52

+10.5

L 73-75

+0.5

ALCN

L 74-81

−19.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

BALL

W 70-52

−32.5

L 73-75

+6.5

ALCN

L 74-81

+2.5

over 3under 4avg −12.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles @ Indiana St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Indiana St

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Indiana St