Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Georgia Southern Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETJack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center · at GA Southern

Final

#296GASOGA Southern77▲ winner

Closing lineGASO -1.5✓ GASO covered by 6.5

Closing total145.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Louisiana Tech and GA Southern
LT	This season	GASO
3-2	Record	3-5
2-3	ATS	4-4
2-3	O/U	3-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LT 74–72 GASO · ✗ LT (58%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LT	27	42	69
GASO	33	44	77

1st half: LT 27, GASO 33 (GASO by 6). The model had LT by 1.5 and a total of 68.3 (actual 60).

Team stats

LT		GASO
27-54 50%	Field goals	27-56 48%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	9-33 27%
9-17 53%	Free throws	14-18 78%
29 7 off	Rebounds	32 8 off
13	Assists	10
4	Steals	8
1	Blocks	6
11	Turnovers	11
17	Fouls	15
32	Points in paint	34
6	Fast-break points	7

Players

LT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
AJ Bates G	28	7	1	9	3-6	0-3
Avery Thomas II F	21	2	3	0	0-2	0-2
Jaylen Fenner G	13	1	1	0	0-4	0-2
Melian Martinez C	9	2	3	0	1-2	0-0
Will Allen F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
DJ Dudley G	30	26	2	2	10-17	4-8
Sir Issac Herron F	28	10	4	2	5-6	0-0
Scooter Williams G	23	9	1	0	3-6	1-2
Will Jeffress F	21	3	5	0	1-5	0-3
Kaden Cooper F	20	9	4	0	4-6	1-1
Kylan Howze F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Keegan Rowell, Jermaurhiyun Anderson, A'Meir Williams, Lachlan Thompson

GASO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Spudd Webb G	34	32	8	4	13-14	4-5
Alden Applewhite F	33	9	2	0	1-5	1-4
Tyren Moore G	31	10	1	2	3-11	1-8
Shainen Carter F	26	6	6	1	3-5	0-0
Jefferson Koulibaly G	25	3	3	2	0-2	0-2
Bench
Dwayne Williams Jr. G	18	15	2	0	6-10	3-7
Andres Burney F	13	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Khayri Dunn G	11	0	2	0	0-2	0-2
Tsvet Sotirov F	5	0	0	0	0-4	0-4
Nakavieon White F	4	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Pavle Ridesic, Sean Van Dorn Jr., Cullen Schreiner, Amare Neal, Cade Lomas, Dallas Gardner, Jayden Williams

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GASO -1.5	LT -2.2	LT +3.7	L GASO covered
Total	145.5	145.8	Over 0.3	W Over
Projected score	—	LT 74 · GASO 71.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LT -1.5	GASO -6.0
1H total	68.3	60
1H projected score	LT 34.9 · GASO 33.4	LT 27 · GASO 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT LWLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	0-2
GASO WLLLW	4-4	50%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; GASO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2
GASO UUUUU	3-5	38%	3-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LTlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
GASOlast 8	3-5 38%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LT 1–0 GASOLT leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LT 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2024-25	GASO 63 @ LT 77	LT -11.5	LT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana Tech

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −12.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@NEV	L 50-77	+9.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 15	vsJKST	W 68-51	-8.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@INST	L 51-60	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 26	vsINST	W 75-73	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 29	vsALCN	W 83-58	-16.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−17.5

JKST

W 68-51

+8.5

INST

L 51-60

−5.5

INST

W 75-73

−0.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−9.5

JKST

W 68-51

−27.5

INST

L 51-60

−36.5

INST

W 75-73

+6.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+3.5

over 2under 3avg −12.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

GA Southern

8 games played

Straight up

3-5

38% wins

Against the spread

4-4

50% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-5

38% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-538%

L W W L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-450%

W L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-538%

O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ECU	L 89-92	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	vsUNCA	W 93-90	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	@FGCU	W 95-94	+3.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 18	@GT	L 66-68	+10.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 21	@FSU	L 72-98	+18.5	L −7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 24	vsYSU	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsUTSA	L 64-77	-3.5	L −16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsHCU	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+2.5

UNCA

W 93-90

−2.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+4.5

L 66-68

+8.5

FSU

L 72-98

−7.5

YSU

L 61-67

−4.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−16.5

HCU

W 80-62

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 4avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+29.5

UNCA

W 93-90

+20.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+25.5

L 66-68

−30.5

FSU

L 72-98

−5.5

YSU

L 61-67

−35.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−19.5

HCU

W 80-62

−6.5

over 3under 5avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Louisiana Tech @ GA Southern

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana Tech

GA Southern

Louisiana Tech

GA Southern