Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 2, 8:00 PM ETJersey Mike’s Arena · at Rutgers · Conference game

#33OSUOhio State80▲ winner

Final

#62RUTGRutgers73final

Closing lineOSU -9.5✓ RUTG covered by 2.5

Closing total151.5Over by 1.5

Season records: Ohio State and Rutgers
OSU	This season	RUTG
9-3	Record	7-6
5-7	ATS	3-10
6-6	O/U	6-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OSU 83–72 RUTG · ✓ OSU (82%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OSU	37	43	80
RUTG	41	32	73

1st half: OSU 37, RUTG 41 (RUTG by 4). The model had OSU by 6.5 and a total of 72.5 (actual 78).

Team stats

OSU		RUTG
27-52 52%	Field goals	27-64 42%
7-16 44%	3-pointers	6-22 27%
19-23 83%	Free throws	13-17 76%
33 13 off	Rebounds	31 18 off
15	Assists	14
5	Steals	9
2	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	8
15	Fouls	19
40	Points in paint	30
6	Fast-break points	6

Players

OSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bruce Thornton G	37	20	10	1	8-13	2-3
Devin Royal F	36	16	3	4	5-13	1-4
Amare Bynum F	33	9	3	1	2-7	0-3
John Mobley Jr. G	33	12	2	5	4-9	4-6
Christoph Tilly C	20	9	3	1	3-4	0-0
Bench
Brandon Noel F	20	14	4	1	5-6	0-0
Gabe Cupps G	11	0	0	2	0-0	0-0
Colin White F	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Taison Chatman G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Mathieu Grujicic, Myles Herro, Ivan Njegovan, Braylen Nash, Josh Ojianwuna

RUTG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Grant F	31	14	2	0	5-12	2-5
Jamichael Davis G	21	9	5	1	4-10	1-2
Emmanuel Ogbole C	17	5	9	0	2-4	0-0
Denis Badalau F	10	2	1	2	1-2	0-1
Harun Zrno G	9	4	1	0	1-5	0-4
Bench
Tariq Francis G	27	17	1	3	6-16	2-6
Bryce Ruglass Dortch F	23	6	3	1	2-2	0-0
Lino Mark G	20	3	1	3	1-3	0-1
Darren Buchanan Jr. G	18	4	4	2	2-3	0-0
Chris Nwuli F	14	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Kaden Powers G	10	9	1	2	3-6	1-3

Did not play: Baye Fall, Max Fradkin, Gevonte Ware, Dorian Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OSU -9.5	OSU -10.6	OSU +1.1	L RUTG covered
Total	151.5	154.8	Over 3.3	W Over
Projected score	—	OSU 82.7 · RUTG 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OSU -6.5	RUTG -4.0
1H total	72.5	78
1H projected score	OSU 39.5 · RUTG 33	OSU 37 · RUTG 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WLLWL	5-7	42%	1-1	4-6
RUTG LLLLL	3-10	23%	1-7	2-4

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OOOUU	6-6	50%	9-3
RUTG UOOUU	6-7	46%	7-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
RUTG	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

OSU 4–2 RUTGOSU leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · OSU has won the last 3 meetings · OSU 2-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2024-25	RUTG 66 @ OSU 80	OSU -5.5	OSU W
Mar 10, 2023-24	OSU 73 @ RUTG 51	RUTG +2.5	OSU W
Jan 3, 2023-24	RUTG 72 @ OSU 76	OSU -7.5	RUTG W
Jan 15, 2022-23	OSU 64 @ RUTG 68	RUTG -3.5	RUTG W
Dec 8, 2022-23	RUTG 66 @ OSU 67	OSU -5.5	RUTG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ohio State

12 games played

Straight up

9-3

75% wins

Against the spread

5-7

42% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-6

50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-375%

W W W W W W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-742%

L W L L W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-650%

O O U U U O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsIUIN	W 118-102	-33.5	L −17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 7	vsPFW	W 94-68	-24.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsAPP	W 75-53	-23.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 128
Nov 16	vsND	W 64-63	-9.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 20	vsWMU	W 91-58	-26.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 25	vsMSM	W 113-60	-30.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 28	@PITT	L 66-67	-5.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 133
Dec 6	@NU	W 86-82	-1.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 168
Dec 9	vsILL	L 80-88	+3.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsWVU	W 89-88	-3.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 177
Dec 20	vsUNC	L 70-71	+2.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 141
Dec 23	vsGRAM	W 89-63	-28.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

−17.5

PFW

W 94-68

+1.5

APP

W 75-53

−1.5

W 64-63

−8.5

WMU

W 91-58

+6.5

MSM

W 113-60

+22.5

PITT

L 66-67

−6.5

W 86-82

+2.5

ILL

L 80-88

−4.5

WVU

W 89-88

−2.5

UNC

L 70-71

+1.5

GRAM

W 89-63

−2.5

covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

+47.5

PFW

W 94-68

+2.5

APP

W 75-53

−19.5

W 64-63

−29.5

WMU

W 91-58

−10.5

MSM

W 113-60

+21.5

PITT

L 66-67

−15.5

W 86-82

+12.5

ILL

L 80-88

+5.5

WVU

W 89-88

+31.5

UNC

L 70-71

−16.5

GRAM

W 89-63

−1.5

over 6under 6avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rutgers

13 games played

Straight up

7-6

54% wins

Against the spread

3-10

23% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-7

46% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-654%

W W W W L L L W L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-1023%

W L L L L L W W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-746%

U O O O U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsRID	W 81-53	-18.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 10	vsME	W 72-60	-18.5	L −6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 14	vsLEH	W 84-72	-18.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 156
Nov 18	vsAMER	W 80-71	-16.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 21	vsCCSU	L 54-67	-15.5	L −28.5	137.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsTENN	L 60-85	+14.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsND	L 63-68	+6.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 131
Nov 27	vsUNLV	W 80-65	+4.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 2	vsPUR	L 65-81	+13.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 6	@MICH	L 60-101	+25.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 161
Dec 13	@HALL	L 59-81	+13.5	L −8.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 20	vsPENN	W 70-69	-11.5	L −10.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsDSU	W 65-50	-20.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 115

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 81-53

+9.5

W 72-60

−6.5

LEH

W 84-72

−6.5

AMER

W 80-71

−7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−28.5

TENN

L 60-85

−10.5

L 63-68

+1.5

UNLV

W 80-65

+19.5

PUR

L 65-81

−2.5

MICH

L 60-101

−15.5

HALL

L 59-81

−8.5

PENN

W 70-69

−10.5

DSU

W 65-50

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 10avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 81-53

−5.5

W 72-60

+1.5

LEH

W 84-72

+19.5

AMER

W 80-71

+7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−16.5

TENN

L 60-85

+3.5

L 63-68

−9.5

UNLV

W 80-65

−8.5

PUR

L 65-81

−0.5

MICH

L 60-101

+7.5

HALL

L 59-81

+3.5

PENN

W 70-69

−11.5

DSU

W 65-50

−20.5

over 6under 7avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ohio State @ Rutgers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Ohio State

Rutgers

Ohio State

Rutgers