Kohl Center · at Wisconsin · Conference game
Closing line
WIS -10.5✓ WIS covered by 1.5
WIS -10.5✓ WIS covered by 1.5Closing total155.5Over by 2.5
 NU | This season | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-5 | ATS | 3-4 |
| 5-2 | O/U | 5-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NU 74–82 WIS · ✓ WIS (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 32 | 41 | 73 |
| WIS | 55 | 30 | 85 |
1st half: NU 32, WIS 55 (WIS by 23). The model had WIS by 4.5 and a total of 73.0 (actual 87).
Team stats
| NU | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-59 42% | Field goals | 28-64 44% |
| 4-19 21% | 3-pointers | 11-31 35% |
| 19-23 83% | Free throws | 18-21 86% |
| 37 11 off | Rebounds | 33 13 off |
| 15 | Assists | 19 |
| 3 | Steals | 7 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| NU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinelli F | 32 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Arrinten Page F | 31 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 8-13 | 0-2 |
| Tre Singleton F | 26 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Reid G | 20 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3-10 | 1-5 |
| Angelo Ciaravino G | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Clayton G | 24 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| K.J. Windham G | 17 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Max Green G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Tyler Kropp F | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Jake West G | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Justin Mullins G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Phoenix Gill G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cade Bennerman, Blake Smith, Gus Hurlburt
| WIS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Blackwell G | 37 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 8-18 | 5-10 |
| Nick Boyd G | 29 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 7-16 | 1-5 |
| Andrew Rohde G | 27 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Nolan Winter F | 23 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-1 |
| Aleksas Bieliauskas F | 20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Austin Rapp F | 26 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 5-8 | 3-6 |
| Jack Janicki G | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Braeden Carrington G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Will Garlock F | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jack Robison G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Hayden Jones G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Gard G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Riccardo Greppi F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zach Kinziger, Elijah Gray
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketWIS -10.5
ModelWIS -7.8
Model edgeNU +2.7
L WIS covered
Total
Market155.5
Model156.0
Model edgeOver 0.5
W Over
Projected score
NU 74.1 · WIS 81.9
NU 73 · WIS 85
Win probability
WIS 75%
1st half
Spread
WIS -4.5
WIS -23.0
Total
73.0
87 points
Projected score
NU 34.2 · WIS 38.8
NU 32 · WIS 55
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWIS -9.5
1 → WIS
CloseWIS -10.5
1 pt toward WIS
Total
Open155.5
no move
Close155.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
NU +425 · WIS -575
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WIS -9.5 · closed WIS -10.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel WIS -8
model WIS -8
Opened 155.5 · unchangedmodel 156
model 156
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NUlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 2-5 29% | 5-2 71% |
| WISlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 3-4 43% | 5-2 71% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
NU 2–5 WISWIS leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · WIS has won the last 4 meetings · NU 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | NU 63 vs WIS 70 | WIS -8.5 | NU W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | WIS 75 @ NU 69 | NU +4.5 | WIS W |
| Mar 15, 2023-24 | WIS 70 vs NU 61 | NU +5.5 | WIS W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | NU 63 @ WIS 71 | WIS -7.5 | WIS W |
| Feb 5, 2022-23 | NU 54 @ WIS 52 | WIS -3.5 | NU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Northwestern
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
2-5
29% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
MERC
MERCW 70-47
−3.5
7
vs
BU
BUW 76-52
+6.5
10
vs
CLE
CLEW 110-63
+23.5
14
@
DEP
DEPW 81-79
−3.5
21
vs
UVA
UVAL 78-83
−0.5
23
vs
SC
SCW 79-77
−2.5
27
vs
OKST
OKSTL 81-86
−7.5
covered 2didn’t cover 5avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−23.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
−8.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+21.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
+14.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
+11.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
+9.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
+7.5
over 5under 2avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wisconsin
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAM | W 96-64 | -20.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 7 | vs NIU | W 97-72 | -28.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 11 | vs BALL | W 86-55 | -26.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 17 | vs SIUE | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 21 | @ BYU | L 70-98 | +4.5 | L −23.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 27 | vs PROV | W 104-83 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs TCU | L 63-74 | -5.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+11.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
−3.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
+4.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
−0.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
−23.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 104-83
+14.5
28
vsTCU
TCUL 63-74
−16.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+8.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
+11.5
11
vsBALL
BALLW 86-55
−15.5
17
vsSIUE
SIUEW 94-69
+16.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 70-98
+2.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 104-83
+20.5
28
vsTCU
TCUL 63-74
−20.5
over 5under 2avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Northwestern
5-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Oklahoma St81–86
- Wvs South Carolina79–77
- Lvs Virginia78–83
- W@ DePaul81–79
- Wvs Cleveland St110–63
6 days since their last game.
Wisconsin
5-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs TCU63–74
- Wvs Providence104–83
- L@ BYU70–98
- Wvs SIUE94–69
- Wvs Ball State86–55
5 days since their last game.