Jenny Craig Pavilion · at San Diego
Closing line
USC -14.5✓ USD covered by 1.5
USC -14.5✓ USD covered by 1.5Closing total158.5Over by 16.5
| USC | This season | USD |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 5-4 | ATS | 2-5 |
| 6-3 | O/U | 3-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USC 90–74 USD · ✓ USC (92%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 38 | 56 | 94 |
| USD | 38 | 43 | 81 |
1st half: USC 38, USD 38 (tied). The model had USC by 9.7 and a total of 76.6 (actual 76).
Team stats
| USC | USD | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-47 62% | Field goals | 26-66 39% |
| 9-16 56% | 3-pointers | 9-30 30% |
| 27-35 77% | Free throws | 20-24 83% |
| 36 6 off | Rebounds | 32 13 off |
| 15 | Assists | 14 |
| 6 | Steals | 12 |
| 6 | Blocks | 3 |
| 21 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 21 | Fouls | 25 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 17 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 37 | 31 | 6 | 6 | 8-11 | 5-6 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 32 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 10-12 | 0-0 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 32 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 23 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Marsh G | 29 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 20 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 6-7 | 4-5 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| EJ Neal Jr. G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jonah Goorin, Amarion Dickerson, Rodney Rice, Brit Burden, Patrick O'Brien, Alijah Arenas
| USD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty-Laur Johnson G | 29 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 4-9 | 0-2 |
| Alejandro Aviles F | 26 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Dominique Ford G | 23 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 6-11 | 2-6 |
| D'Arrae Goodwin F | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Assane Diop F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Juanse Gorosito G | 25 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4-10 | 2-5 |
| Toneari Lane G | 20 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-9 | 2-6 |
| Vuk Boskovic F | 19 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Adrian McIntyre G | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Gavin Ripp F | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Tim Moore Jr. F | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Brandon Benjamin G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Emmanuel Callas G | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Piotr Winkowski C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Neel Beniwal G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Nick Del Bosque G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Josh Hecht G | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kjay Bradley, Boden Grant, Caleb Versher
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSC -14.5
ModelUSC -15.8
Model edgeUSC +1.3
L USD covered
Total
Market158.5
Model163.8
Model edgeOver 5.3
W Over
Projected score
USC 89.9 · USD 74
USC 94 · USD 81
Win probability
USC 92%
1st half
Spread
USC -9.7
tied
Total
76.6
76 points
Projected score
USC 43.2 · USD 33.5
USC 38 · USD 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSC -16.5
2 → USD
CloseUSC -14.5
2 pts toward USD
Total
Open162.5
▼ 4
Close158.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
USC -1600 · USD +900
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USC -16.5 · closed USC -14.5 · moved 2 toward USDmodel USC -16
model USC -16
Opened 162.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 4 downmodel 164
model 164
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USClast 9 | 8-1 89% | 5-4 56% | 6-3 67% |
| USDlast 7 | 2-5 29% | 2-5 29% | 3-4 43% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
USC
9 games played
Straight up
8-1
89% wins
Against the spread
5-4
56% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-3
67% overs · avg +11.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs WASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
covered 5didn’t cover 4avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
over 6under 3avg +11.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
San Diego
7 games played
Straight up
2-5
29% wins
Against the spread
2-5
29% covers · avg −6.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-4
43% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vs
IDST
IDSTL 68-71
−7.5
12
vs
IDHO
IDHOW 78-74
+5.5
18
vs
GRAM
GRAMW 78-68
+3.5
21
vs
UCR
UCRL 71-85
−21.5
25
vs
CBU
CBUL 61-76
−7.5
30
@
LBSU
LBSUL 72-76
−6.5
5
@
SJSU
SJSUL 69-86
−10.5
covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsIDST
IDSTL 68-71
−13.5
12
vsIDHO
IDHOW 78-74
−3.5
18
vsGRAM
GRAMW 78-68
−3.5
21
vsUCR
UCRL 71-85
+3.5
25
vsCBU
CBUL 61-76
−9.5
30
@LBSU
LBSUL 72-76
+0.5
5
@SJSU
SJSUL 69-86
+10.5
over 3under 4avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
USC
8-1 overall · 1-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Washington76–84
- W@ Oregon82–77
- Wvs Arizona St88–75
- Wvs Seton Hall83–81
- Wvs Boise St70–67
3 days since their last game.
San Diego
2-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ San José St69–86
- L@ Long Beach St72–76
- Lvs CA Baptist61–76
- Lvs UC Riverside71–85
- Wvs Grambling78–68
4 days since their last game.